CheeselandSkies

Seems like March goes hand in hand with major DFW hailstorms like it does with college hoops.

Tornado probabilities back down to 5% at the 20Z outlook. Frontal undercutting expected to remain a hindrance. However the cell near Mineral Wells, TX is discrete, appears to be deviating a little to the right of other storms and is on a track to threaten the DFW metro, with significant large hail at the very least. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0293.html

Man, the high risk went almost to the IL/WI border. Shoulda chased on 3/5/22, but I thought the surface temperature/moisture were just a tad too marginal to produce substantial tornadoes, let alone a 70-mile-track EF4. Had a decent chase on 3/15/16, caught a glimpse of the Trivoli-Hanna City, IL EF2 but my chase partner and I made a poor navigational decision and lost sight of it in the darkness after that. After 3/12/06, 3/2/12 is the only really huge March outbreak outside of Dixie Alley that I remember.

That's interesting, I associate La Nina with flooding and , particularly late spring of 2008. The last 10 days of May through the first two weeks of June were practically non-stop thunderstorms with multiple tornado outbreaks and major river flooding for much of the Midwest.

As of this morning's 12Z runs, NAM is still a good bit further west with the dryline at 0Z Friday compared to everything else, but I think it's closer than it was.

Yep, definitely watching the upcoming setup with interest. Was hoping we could pull off a Winterset (or even 3/12/06, 3/15/16)-type setup but these troughs are digging into Mexico and spinning up surface lows way too far south, lol.

They've been very cautious with the high risk in recent years, and rightfully so, as the models and the atmosphere haven't really presented a "slam-dunk" high-end severe setup, and the one time they thought it was (5/20/19) they ended up with huge egg on their face due to a subtle inhibiting factor that none of the models picked up on. 3/25/21 was a pretty good use of the high risk (multiple long-track EF3s, although the lone EF4 came after the high risk had been removed from the updated outlook), 3/17/21 it turned out to be a little overblown IMO. Of course 4/27/11 kind of gave a lot of people the wrong idea of what a high risk day should be like. There are plenty of more "classic" verified examples but it's been a while since we had one outside of 3/25/21. 11/10/02, 5/4/03, 5/29/04, 2/5/08, 4/24/10, 5/10/10, 5/24/11, 4/14/12, 4/28/14...

Looks like cold anomalies mostly stay out west where they belong. Let's keep it that way through April.

@madwx If we get a foot out of this, I'll eat a hat.

It's moving west (as per the NAM, at least). Originally looked exclusively like another lower MS Valley-Dixie event.

Far more interested in following the side of this down south.

Tornado warning in central IL, already reported.

As I just said in the other thread...this is a powerhouse system, shame it's too darn progressive for a quality early-season event in our sub like 2/28/17 or 3/15/16.

Would be another great setup for some early-season in western/central IL if only the front weren't coming through at 12Z per the 06Z GFS. Still might be some if the air aloft is cold enough. Seems to be a trend though in recent years of "wasting" these type of systems mid-March and earlier, and then April-June is dead quiet.

18Z GFS looks beautiful for Tuesday 3/7...has me at 54 degrees...at midnight. Too bad moisture is very paltry into that surface low tracking through MN. Won't verify, of course. However, it's the first run I recall seeing that actually gets anywhere in Wisconsin above 50 degrees through the end of the run. Lots of "potential" stuff bouncing around in this pattern. Whether any of that potential translates to something interesting and who actually gets the and/or remains to be seen.

Not too bad here in Madison, at least in my immediate area. A sloppy kitchen sink type of storm, about what we expected. I think there was more ice weighing down the trees following the kitchen sink storm of late February 2017, that happened a few days after it had been in the 60s, and a few days before the 2/28 outbreak. In fact I know there was, because I thought it worthy of taking pictures then. I brought my GoPro to work this morning just in case, but never saw fit to get it out.

SPC says game on: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0173.html

2018 had pretty widespread/significant river flooding in southern Wisconsin, although it started later in the summer and continued into spring 2019 in some areas. Then there was 2008...

Feb SSWE/-NAO combo says hold my beer. Although similar patterns don't always play out in the same fashion.

Putting out a day 3 marginal risk (5% max for any hazard or 2% for tornado) after a Day 5 and Day 4 15% is SPC's equivalent of waving the white flag.

I mean...it's plausible that much snow will fall in that timeframe, but it will melt off between each storm. a @beavis1729 nightmare

There was one ice storm I remember from the vaunted winter of 2013-'14 where I came out to leave for work one night (3AM start) and found my car completely encased in about 1/4" of solid ice. That was a fun nearly half hour of chipping and scraping. Still waiting to top that, now that I live at an apartment complex with indoor parking.

Is it even possible to get a low-level hodo like that in a warm sector with CAPE? Where the wind goes from ENE at the surface to SW at 1KM? And those SRH numbers...

Been waiting it out, gonna have to drive home to the west side from downtown (wife is in Meriter Hospital for the second time in two months) in about half an hour. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk