CheeselandSkies

Speaking of the devil, random tornado warning for Bureau County, IL. Even if anything were to happen, it'd be totally rain-wrapped.

It'll probably happen when we're short-staffed where I work and I can't take any PTO.

I just don't understand how northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin can get a significant severe weather event at the end of March, and then can't buy one for all of May and June.

Holy shit. Don't breathe. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Up to 198. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

They forgot to rake the forest. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Up to 190 now. Of course my wallpaper is the Keota tornado. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

AQI 186 at Madison according to my phone. Worst I've ever seen. Can smell that "burnt plastic," too and my nose isn't very sensitive so if I can smell it it's bad. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Yeah, GFS and now NAM suggesting any potential late week RoF will set up a little further south than most I-80 and north folks would like.

Much worse for WI. We'd barely even started at this point that year!

Looks like I was, in fact, a week too early in taking my vacation. At least I'll get to chase Saturday. I'd be even more annoyed if yesterday/Monday had produced something good.

Unfortunately I can't chase Friday, but keeping a close eye on Saturday/potentially Sunday further east.

Don't do that, you'll turn blue (I assume you meant to say won't hold my breath on that)! A cursory glance at the 12Z GFS suggests this coming Saturday could hold some potential, but as you say it's a wait-and-see game at this point. * May 12 was pretty good in northeast Nebraska. It's the one day this year I didn't chase that I regret not going, but again I didn't see such high potential in a weakening cutoff to warrant a PTO day, especially since I'd already burned one the previous Monday so I could chase western Iowa the evening of Sunday 5/7 (which wasn't a bad chase, remains the most recent thunderstorm I've seen this year, but turned out to not have the tornado potential it looked like it would the night before which led me to ask off last minute).

If only it could have been from like I-70 in Kansas on northward. I suppose I could have chased Texas last week and maybe seen some decent stuff (or maybe destroyed my wife's 2021 Hyundai Santa Fe with hail), but I really didn't want to go that far and had my doubts that far south would actually produce this time of year. If it was a month earlier, it would have been a no-brainer. I guess Keota will have to tide me over until next year, barring a major and unforeseen summer pattern change for the Midwest. In previous years, I didn't even have anything like that.

Finally getting a classic mid-June northwest flow supercell/ event in...Mississippi.

If this was a known issue ten years ago, why hasn't it been fixed on any of the subsequent updates to the model?

Just your casual medium-probability development zone off the coast of Africa on...June 16th.

I was out and about in rural southern Wisconsin (away from Madison, where everybody has been constantly watering for the last 5 weeks at least) today and most of the grass is totally brown. We had two, maybe three weeks at the most of nice spring green this year.

Hardcore facepalm.

Sky already has that milky look to it due to smoke in the upper levels. This after all-day overcast, showers, and low 60s yesterday. Easily the dullest May-June of my adult life. Last thunder I heard was still because of the storms I chased on 5/7. If not for 3/31, I think this would have been the year that finally killed my interest in weather.

Except lacking this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_June_14–18,_1992

The fun never stops. SPC already throwing cold water on Father's Day weekend into the following week. Late this weekend through early next week, latest medium-range guidance appears to be trending toward the evolution of another prominent high in the southern Hudson Bay to upper Great Lakes vicinity, subsequent to mid/upper trough amplification over the interior West. This may be accompanied by generally weakening flow across much of the U.S., and a return to sparser, less organized daily severe weather potential. ..Kerr.. 06/13/2023

It's 1871 all over again...

Maybe seeing a smidgen of consistency on the last few GFS runs that somewhere in southeastern Kansas could be interesting next Tuesday, with a potentially significant threat in the mid-South on Wednesday (Rather than haul @$$ for this I might chase lesser potential portrayed over portions of KS/NE for that day). Still far out but some eyebrow-raising EHI values being shown over the NE/IA/KS/MO confluence region on multiple consective runs for next Friday with a system that comes in behind the first one. Consistency falls apart pretty quickly for Father's Day weekend with wild run-to-run differences in how that second system is handled beyond Friday 6/16.

Mentioned this on other forums but the signal was consistent enough on the CFS from 500+ hours out, that I asked for next week off a week ago. Still lots of details TBD.