CheeselandSkies

I guess I'll be the one to dust off this thread, since no one else has. Day 4 outlook includes most of Iowa as well as portions of NE/KS/MO. Details/ceiling still pretty up in the air IMO. 06Z GFS also hints at further potential into the following week, but it's pretty much on an island with that.

Yep, nice mood rain here tonight. My wife is back in the hospital for the sixth time since last December (we only got married in November of 2021). Unending complications from post-COVID kidney failure. Even if/when she does get a transplant, I'm no longer optimistic that she will recover to anything close to her former self.

Whenever some Gen Z'er at work asks me if I'm on TikTok or Instagram, I tell them "It's bad enough I have a Facebook account." I had a Twitter account for about a year from 2017-'18, never once regretted deleting it. #OldFartMillennial Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Yesterday's 12Z Euro: Mega weenie run with Lee. GFS: Hold my beer.

New advisory has the forecast secondary peak down to 115kt. So much for that advisory from Friday morning that had Lee never dropping below 130kt through 06Z Tuesday 9/12. Not only the hurricane models but the multiple deterministic EURO runs and sub-910MB EPS members had my expectations sky-high for this one.

Every weather forum on the Internet would like to thank the 12Z Euro for the weenie run that was desperately needed to revive interest in Lee.

In 2019/20, direct hits (landfall from the latter) from Humberto and Paulette caused fairly heavy damage, but no deaths and not enough to warrant retirement. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

A couple of the high-res CAMs (NOT the HRRR!) actually appeared to quite accurately resolve* the mesocyclone associated with the Table Grove/Lewistown, IL tornadic supercell on April 4 nearly 24 hours in advance. Unfortunately I didn't put enough stock in them to catch it (ended up too late to the area and stuck on the wrong side of the storm near Monmouth when the warning went out, and I don't core-punch unless I am fairly confident that the conditions do not favor large, damaging hail). However even they couldn't resolve individual tornadoes, unless they were predicting something the size of El Reno '13. *As in not just helicity tracks, but a localized pressure perturbation with extremely tightly packed isobars on the surface map.

It actually did though. Cat. 2 landfall on the far tip of the OBX.

Wow. I thought El Nino was supposed to prevent this? Then again it was supposed to prevent the Atlantic hurricane season, too.

All eyes squarely back on Lee, now. Even though Jova is still kinda pretty she's getting a little long in the tooth. Quite literally yesterday's news.

Some of the HAFS-B runs would disagree, but we'll see what happens.

Based on what? Not the >300 hour GFS op again, right?

The "I curse" is real, folks. Retirements since 2002: Isidore, Isabel, Ivan, Ike, Igor, Irene, Ingrid, Irma, Ida, Ian Now likely Idalia. Kind of ironic that 2005 didn't manage to retire an "I" name, but the infamous 2013 did.

Fair enough.

May not be much on the immediate coast but some of the hurricane model solutions would put the western eyewall over Tallahassee; with how fast this thing is going to be trucking inland I'd expect they would get a lot more wind than during Michael if those verified.

I would wager 931 MB on the HWRF and 926 MB on the HAFS-B (both FH051) are not "strong Cat 3 to low-end Cat 4" verbatim. BTW, is there any other way to pronounce the new hurricane model besides "half-ass"? I can't think of one.

I prefer to wait for the actual frame-by-frame model runs of the hurricane models (HAFS-A/B, HWRF, HMON) with MSLP, sim IR, etc.

Where? All still the 06Z runs for me.

The 12Z hurricane models aren't actually out yet, and won't be for another few hours.

0Z HAFS-B gets it down to 929 MB (strongest non-fantasy range hurricane model output I've seen thus far) at FH057, but brings it back up a bit before landfall. All the hurricane models (and have for several runs) agree on a solid major hurricane, potentially a high-end (125kt+) one.

I don't even want to imagine the shenanigans that would be possible with Franklin and Idalia both drifting around in the western Atlantic late in the coming week.