CheeselandSkies

Well, they threw in a little 10% for NE CO at 1630 so maybe today will grow a pair after all. Figures, just in time for my vacation to end action picks up a little bit, although yesterday and today's threats by themselves probably wouldn't be enough to draw me that far out. I think I'm done taking a week off each spring for "chasing." This is the fourth straight year I've booked one based on late May/early June climo and each year it has coincided with the deadest period possible. I'll just try to take off for the significant troughs as they show up on the models and if they go to crap, then just do something else with the PTO day.

He's yelling "Spin, damn you!"

Well, it's a nasty series of bow echoes/possible tornado outbreak for much of SD/ND/MN Thursday if you believe the 3K NAM. Although, I saw its 48-36 hour sim reflectivity for Saturday over SW IA/NE KS and we all know how that turned out. Shear parameters look pretty marginal across the area on the regular NAM, with only isolated pockets of higher EHI/STP. Not sure what to make of those, except maybe contamination? CAPE should be plentiful, and forecast lapse rates are decent. The question is, am I that desperate for a chase?

So now the question becomes, how did the weeklies get bamboozled so badly back when things were supposedly looking up for the 3rd and 4th weeks of May? Are they biased towards climo or what?

322 days since last tornado watch and 281 since last severe thunderstorm watch for anywhere in the MKX CWA (actually more now since those were generated several days ago).

It can't die if it was never alive. See my post from April 18th (in Medium-Long Range Discussion). Should have never allowed my hopes to get up and just saved my vacation days.

What an epic bust today was. Not sorry I bailed on chasing after looking at things this morning, although I still expected there to be widespread severe across NE KS/SE NE/SW IA/NW MO. Just a low chance of photogenic/tornadic storms. Not the complete lack of storms in the area.

If things continue to hold fast on the GFS and NAM, looks like Saturday in SW IA or SE NE will be my only play. Tomorrow I find just too much of a haul to western KS for a fairly modest set-up. Good luck to those out.

Just once I'd like a year where seasons act like seasons and bring the potpourri of weather we normally associate with them. Instead when we finally get into an active snow pattern in BLOODY APRIL, events' ceilings are being tempered by climo rather than enhanced.* Same goes for wasting May with the jet stream way the hell up in Canada. *Out-of-climo events are cool and all, but only if they are extreme enough that they would be considered unusual/impactful even during peak climo for that type of weather. Big Midwest tornado outbreak in November, for example (remember 2013?).

Yeah. Honestly, after hitting rock bottom over the weekend, things are looking up a bit for the coming weekend into the following week. Should be at least a few opportunities. Saturday in particular has my eye now that the GFS actually forms a surface low.

Mulling over some NAM forecast soundings for Friday over KS/NE (obviously still at the very end of its range so take it for what it's worth). The biggest weakness I see is of course the modest deep layer shear. However low level directional shear and mid-level lapse rates look quite good. Still not sure if I'll bite on it, but based off that Euro run Friday-Saturday would be the only play of my vacation window. If only that 500mb shortwave with the small pockets of 45-50kt southwesterlies could be a little faster (on the GFS, too). It seems to want to lag the warm sector until the cap is filling in after dark, however that could imply a small window of time shortly after 0z when everything lines up. As we saw on the 1st, sometimes that's all it takes.

Sad when New York is getting better action than the Plains/Midwest in mid-May.

CFS still really wants to bring a small area of 50kt SW flow to parts of KS/NE next Saturday. GFS also has it but has been very consistent with an ugly crashing cold front surface pattern and no SLP really able to wrap up. So we go from February in April, to July in early-mid May, back to April in mid-late May? Seems legit.

Meanwhile south of Wichita... Probably won't be anything long-lasting or too photogenic, but the storm's reflectivity presentation looks lovely.

I hear that. Of course, I said the same thing for the days of Dodge City and Chapman that one week in 2016. I was laser-focused on that Thursday and...yeah. The problem for me is that those days, by themselves, looking as they did even 2 days out wouldn't be enough to get me from WI to western KS, even if I had been off that week.

They had that in there yesterday, too (same forecaster IIRC). GFS continues to look at least moderately interesting over NC/NE KS for next Saturday, so I'm surprised they didn't at least throw in a "predictability too low" for that. Yeah there is some 700-500mb VBV in here but decent turning below 700mb and very strong instability.

Interesting that E. IA/N. IL/S. WI are in the SPC 70% area for thunderstorms from 04Z-12Z tonight, but area radars are completely quiet at the moment.

Next weekend actually doesn't look entirely awful on the GFS, this morning's 12Z run had a 2-day play from KS to the Midwest on Saturday-Sunday. The surface pattern doesn't look stellar but at least there's 500mb flow above 30kt overlapping some instability.

Ah, but therein lies the problem for those of us who just don't have the luxury to chase all of them.

Even reading between the lines of Kerr's last few Day 4-8 convective outlooks, you can detect some degree of "WTF atmosphere, it's May?!" Friday: Yesterday: Today:

GFS at around hour 156 doesn't look too terrible, if that shortwave in KS were a tad faster or the one in Iowa a tad slower. Still, it is frustrating not to see a broad belt of AOA 40kt SW flow overspreading that massive reservoir of instability.

That...is delightful.

Yeah that totally came out of left field for us. Didn't even occur to me to chase.

Looks like my dart at the calender (May 18-27) might work out. Hard not to sweat each run of the CFS and GFS, even though at 9+ days out most of my vacation is still in model fantasyland. At least the trends are encouraging.

I take it you are Jeff House on Stormtrack?