CheeselandSkies

Carbon copy of yesterday...storms firing up from northern Grant to Rock Counties and training ESE.

OK, if this produces a tornado I'm gonna be annoyed after chasing yesterday and sitting out today, because we're in sub-2%.

Watch likely for S. WI/N. IL/north-central to northeastern Iowa: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1382.html @cyclone77, @hawkeye_wx, @hlcater still getting left out. @A-L-E-K and the rest of the Chicago crowd are in.

SPC 20Z outlook explicitly mentions this complex is expected to affect southern WI, but they steadfastly refused to increase our probabilities. 30% hatched extended to MS River, however.

Quite the inflow notch there.

Got a feeling this bow echo has some surprises in store. Our mets this morning weren't very enthusiastic on the severe potential for our area (in line with SPC). However most models seem to have the instability gradient right across southern Wisconsin. Had an enjoyable little chase yesterday, following the lead cell from near Orfordville to near Beloit. Showed some supercell characteristics visually and on radar. Didn't realize "Ryan Hall, Y'all" had chasers active in WI, but I guess I shouldn't be surprised. DSLR pics later.

I thought that little guy firing up over by Blanchardville looked suspicious. Could be what the HRRR was hinting at, although the signal weakened somewhat during the day. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1364.html

"Here comes the sun..."

Tornado warning with the very HP supercell crossing I-39 just south of I-80. Go figure, rotation looked stronger before the warning went out. Sporadic reports of minor wind damage with that southeast-moving line segment crossing the WI/IL line.

HRRR seems to be dropping the idea of significant supercells traversing southern Wisconsin this evening, despite some clearing nosing its way into SW WI.

13Z HRRR is, um... interesting. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

SPC up to 5% on the prob at 13Z. Looks like another day this year I can't ignore, as much as I might want to (4/30, 5/19, 5/25).

21/7/4. 145 ACE. Put a sock in it.

We've had the setups, they just always verify up north in the trees (6/15) or something hoses them day of (3/28/20). August marginal risks are where it's at.

3K NAM gets a little frisky with the MCS over southern WI/northern IL overnight Monday-Tuesday, and fires up another one Tuesday evening.

Latest MKX AFD... Sounds good to me.

Yeah, it was not good. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Like July 2009. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Showers made it into Dane County on fumes, no lightning left.

So what's limiting the severe wx chances, given that we're in the W/NW flow? Usually this time of year it's massive ridging and no shear/dynamics.

Some of the anomaly maps being posted really demonstrate the capricious nature of convective precip, very tight gradients between the haves and have-nots. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Lame, they split around Madison. Warnings in Iowa/Lafayette, and northeastern Dane.

93 at Madison. Mild. We're still forecast to hit 97.

Goes to show, a climate stat geek I am not.

Here's one for the climo stat geeks: Any summer high temp records left at any of the major Midwest/Great Lakes stations that don't belong to 1988, 1995 or 2012? Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk