CheeselandSkies

Didn't we have one of those in 2020? Both in terms of an actual warm-core low (Cristobal) moving through, and then the 120-140 MPH gusts with the derecho in August?

Same, except I was on my way back after busting in Iowa. Nothing I was on really did anything, except for the cell becoming severe warned as I was coming through Verona and almost home. As I'd feared all the good action was up in the woods, and even that didn't last long in terms of significant/classic supercellular production. That signature near Oakdale around 21Z was gnarly, though. Appears Mauston narrowly avoided a major hit, as well. At Barneveld just off 151:

Yuck. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

I'm in Oelwein, IA hoping to jump on the cells as they mature. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

I'm seeing Madison snuck in a daily record by 1 degree at 96. @madwx Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Had to pause at that one for a moment. My wife is a public child welfare social worker so CPS automatically reads "child protective services" to me. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Looking ahead to Wednesday...00Z HRRR and 3KM NAM are in...both agree that the unchaseable Northwoods get rocked (again) but rather different solutions for southern areas, naturally. Looks like temperatures could still be hot enough that LCLs will be an issue for threat except perhaps if moisture pools along a boundary.

Beastly supercell going through the Ft. Wayne/New Haven area right now, fortunately for them like all the others today it seems to be spamming RFD surges preventing the low-level mesocyclone from really wrapping up, but a significant wind and hail producer.

Unusual to see tornado warning text (not sure if I've ever seen it, even on a QLCS) explicitly mention the straight-line wind threat as well. Was fully not expecting this this evening. Thought once the WI cell moved out over LM that was it on this side, took a nap after I got home.

Nice to finally see (roughly, rotation nowhere near as strong obviously, and fortunately) what Plainfield would have looked like on NEXRAD after all these years.

Leaving my parents' house in Stoughton around 3 PM I could see 2, sometimes 3 CGs hitting at the same time straight ahead of me as I drove north on County N to the I-30/90 interchange. Of course, it stopped/moved on as soon as I got my phone set up on the dash mount and rolling video. Drove through the southern edge of the RFD region with a quick burst of near-blinding rain. Lots of leaves/small limbs down all the way down the Beltline Highway (at various point some combination of US 12/14/18/151) to the west side of Madison where my apartment is. Some medium limbs down on High Point Road but that's the worst I saw.

Velocities appear to be picking up with that cell, outside the southern edge of the warning polygon. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

SPC being appallingly behind with the SWODY1 again.

Green County, WI warned for a hailer. 50 MPH storm motion.

If nothing else, Radarscope shows prolific lightning occurring along roughly a Reedsburg-La Crosse corridor. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

To the extent that any CAM wasn't awful with today, HRRR portrayed something like this with every other run or so.

13Z HRRR run put a supercell practically right over my house. 14Z goes back to snoozer for WI/IL/most of IN, with MI/OH/extreme NE IN action not getting going until late.

This sub is weird because different parts of it can experience the same season so differently. I remember 2012 as the most boring and stormless summer of my adult life; all those derechos went south/southeast of here. I've experienced a lot more thunderstorms this year than I had by this point in 2021 (although chasing is a part of that, since I drove to some storms I wouldn't have experienced at home), while others like @hardypalmguy are still getting the shaft.

Stuff in NE IA/SE MN may get a boost from daytime heating before it comes through here, although it'll still be a few hours earlier than ideal and indications still are it will remain to the cool side of the warm front.

Sun back out in Madison after some overcast in the 7:30-8:30 AM timeframe. Edit: 12Z HRRR essentially lost the bow echo again...what a joke.

I actually ran the heat in my wife's car on my way in to work this morning.

HRRR with a whiff north for MBY...which is OK since I'll be trying to get my semi-crippled car to a place where it can be worked on. It also implies that the very volatile surface-based/ environment along/south of the warm front will remain untapped. The bowing MCS for tomorrow PM is also virtually nonexistent on the 18Z 3KM NAM, which is shocking because I've always observed that model to blow up gigantic convective complexes at the slightest provocation. Edit: It has one large complex in east-central IL into IN, and another in Iowa at 14Z, so those probably work over the environment for the would-be later activity according to the model's scenario.

Looks like MBY got moved a little more solidly into the 5% tor area. Of course when my car is out of commission. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

GFS steadily coming down with EHI values for next week as the "event" draws closer. The trough and associated dynamics lift NE around the ridge of juicy tropical air instead of overspreading it and popping the lid off. Typical. Will still probably be some storms somewhere but not optimistic about the prospects of a good chase.

Reading between the lines of this MCD, it sounds like a potentially more significant event than implied by the 5%/slight risk may be brewing over portions of the OH Valley. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1089.html