CheeselandSkies

For Saturday, or mid-next week?

Here's one from the 12Z NAM valid for 21Z Saturday from the zone of greatest progged 0-1KM EHI along the MS river/AR-TN border region. Looking at the wind barbs the veer-back isn't as pronounced as earlier runs, but there's a very slight amount of backing from 850 up to 700mb, but moreover the winds look pretty unidirectional albeit very strong at all levels. Even so, there are ample amounts of SRH and EHI depicted. The wind profile is depicted as much more classic (southerly surface winds, veering to SW at 850mb and WSW at 500mb) farther east near the MS/AL border, but instability is progged much weaker there.

Doubt it because it's a relatively small area with high CAPE, and there are some VBV issues apparent in soundings. Still verbatim the potential for an isolated nasty event like last Sunday's EF4 is apparent should a storm find a sweet spot. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

This looks like one of those (rather common) scenarios where, counterintuitively, a (relatively) weaker system leads to higher impact wx. There seems to be a point, usually around 990mb, where except in rare cases further deepening does more harm than good if you want to see winter and/or severe wx (at least when the SLP is still centered west of the MS river). Those "inland hurricanes" that are down in the low 980s or below typically just bring blustery cold rain to locations not on the Lakes, and the big time snow occurs in the northern Plains.

On 12Z NAM, hodos are looking very impressive over the AL/MS border region (moreso than further west where instability is greater). Could be another scenario to watch out for prefrontal initiation in that area (as with last Sunday) if it can destabilize. Sounding attached is from a small pocket of higher CAPE depicted near and south of Columbus (ruh roh), MS. I see some slight backing on the wind barbs between 700 and 500 mb, but that doesn't look like game-breaker levels of VBV.

Remember when this was a guaranteed all-rainer for S. WI/IA/IL?

Looks like 12Z NAM want to blitz us with ZR. Fun times.

Sooooooo I was promised a pattern flip following this miserably frigid start to March. Now I'm hearing in the SE forum that it's supposed to stay cold the rest of the month? What devilment is this?

Arrrrgh. What happened to the advertised flip after the frigid start to March? Also, where is this supposed cold coming from? Was there another SSWE without anyone noticing? Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Another one of those times I'd like to bottle and save this pattern for May. Watch these systems be moisture-starved and then we're stuck in a blocky eastern trough pattern for the balance of May.

Yep looks like a northern MN/WI special at this point. Over the weekend the GFS raised my eyebrows a bit with a swath of 6"-12" going right over the IA/MN border, across southern WI, and central/southern lower MI.

Well, yesterday certainly broke the trend of a lack of violent tornadoes and few fatalities, unfortunately. We'll see if that translates into a better year for chasers or just more destruction and misery.

Holy ****. Haven't heard of debris lofting like this since the two days in 2014 (Vilonia/Louisville) and before that, 4/27.

New tornado warning issued that includes Monticello. Original polygon was oriented more to the ESE.

Yikes, I would say that would have warranted a TORE.

12Z GFS has a gnarly beast of a system for next weekend. Broad, quality warm sector with lapse rates exceeding 8 degrees C/km in parts of Dixie Alley, heavy snow across parts of IL/IA/WI/MI. If it and the other models can keep that general look for a few more runs, it's going to be a fun week. Something to take my mind off how **** cold it's going to be, at least.

Since no one else has yet, I'll point out that there's a Day 4 risk area out for much of the TN Valley/Dixie Alley region. As usual still a lot of pieces to come together as to exactly how this will play out. Could be about as significant as last Saturday, or more, or less. Worth noting though since model trends have been upward for the possibility of severe weather in the area on Sunday.

They're going to be turning around right quick with these temps we have coming up.

Yeah, wasn't too bad when I took my gf to her grad school class at UW about an hour ago. Lot of standing water on the roads though between partially melted snow and the rain with nowhere to go. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

The GFS valid for 3/1 kills me a little inside. 999mb surface low over SE SD, 80kt wsw jet at 500mb...and ZERO CAPE anywhere inland over the CONUS except peninsular FL. Save those for May and June, please!

NAM is a lot farther south and somewhat weaker with the low (at least initially) which would temper the severe potential some but brings a lot more snow into MBY. Suddenly 34 and rain isn't looking like the guaranteed outcome with this system.

Been awhile since the central CONUS saw a storm like that if it verifies...too bad I'll likely be too far south for the big time snows and too far north for severe...a not uncommon spot for S. WI/N. IL/E. IA in late winter/early spring.

It's happened before...not that long ago.

Every **** spring. Still, it's the long range but I'd rather see it not even on the table. If it does happen, we can hope it's transient and doesn't lock in for 8 weeks straight like those patterns tend to do. I think odds are better if the West remains cold/snowy and we don't get another SSW event - to which I say -

Agreed, I was concerned about a heavy snow pack from this winter on top of the excessive rainfall we received late last summer. Interesting and perhaps troublesome times ahead.