Tim from Springfield (IL)

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  1. IMO, even the wording of both the local area forecast for Sangamon County and their point-and-click for my location (Chatham, IL) both make it appear that ILX doesn't seem impressed about this storm threat, at least for this area. Their current Sangamon County forecast for tomorrow: "Warmer. Rain showers and thunderstorms." No mention of severe yet. Point and click only shows the generic "showers and thunderstorms" with no severe mention either. That doesn't sound like "enhanced/moderate risk for severe" to me. It was worse earlier today: "Rain showers and some thunderstorms." That especially doesn't scream "severe" to me; more like a "few showers with a rumble of thunder or two." Either ILX's forecasting is a joke, or they're seeing something for this area that we and the other models/NWS offices are not. I'm sure tomorrow's morning ILX HWO will have the "conference call for emergency managers" statement at the end of the outlook, for sometime late in the morning for areas in at least the Enhanced risk. Maybe even some of the Slight areas too. Also, how much stock does anyone on here take in local TV weathercast "Futurecast radars." None of the ones I've seen on the three major newscasts in the Springfield/Decatur/Champaign market at 6PM seemed to put much activity (other than a few isolated cells) in the current MDT/hatched TOR area. It looked as if they wanted to get more isolated storms going roughly along and east of a STL-LaSalle line, with some intensifying and expanding in size. Not impressed with what I saw on local news tonight, even though they were emphasizing SPC's moderate risk prediction.
  2. The Northern IL Severe Weather blog's take on Saturday, including an interesting map: https://nilsevereweather.weebly.com/blogs-weather-updates/severe-weather-threat-increasing-across-illinois-on-saturday-all-hazards-possible-nisw?fbclid=IwAR3Fl2HpqFhOeBgOlPMxSpq_jdqNQJaRwm5oWerPGRYns_cBgLWV7S-s_ag The blogger also linked to the following SPC map image, including a radar image of long-tracked cells tracking straight northeast west and north of Peoria. With a serious-looking long-tracked cell shown from west of Canton to LaSalle-Peru. Plus some nasty cells over and just northeast of PIA:
  3. I went ahead and started a new thread for the late-week threats here in the sub, especially what may be the main event Saturday:
  4. Going to start a separate thread for the current end-of-week severe threats, especially what may be the big show in IL on Saturday (after the rare Day 3 afternoon update): https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Also, the 2:49 CDT Day 1 now has a slight entering the STL Metro East area in IL, with a narrow hatched hail area from E KS to E MO: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Most of the sub is in Marginal for Day 2 at this time: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
  5. ILX with the evening forecasts just extended the WWA to the I-55 corridor, including Springfield, Lincoln, and Bloomington. Snow/sleet/freezing rain mix in Chatham (10 miles southwest of State Capitol) now. Glaze of snow and sleet on ground now. Reports of roads starting to get slick, and Google Maps traffic map showing slow go on I-55 and I-72 here in Sangamon County. MIxed precip + Saturday night + lackadaisical snow/ice removal in Springfield area in recent years = Travel unadvisable in SPI tonight
  6. Last night Flash Flood Watches were posted in the Peoria area and in much of northern Illinois for the threat of additional heavy rains on top of saturated soil from Friday's deluge. Looks like ILX dropped the ball completely on what happened in the Springfield area overnight (and early yesterday morning too). At least 2+ inches (and some reports of even higher) and flooded roads early this morning in the SPI area. And not a single flood watch, warning, or advisory issued for Sangamon County. Some of the precip reports: PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 929 AM CDT SUN SEP 29 2019 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NW SPRINGFIELD 39.83N 89.68W 09/29/2019 M3.25 INCH SANGAMON IL COCORAHS 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 W SPRINGFIELD 39.80N 89.72W 09/29/2019 M3.21 INCH SANGAMON IL COCORAHS 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 W RIVERTON 39.85N 89.58W 09/29/2019 M3.15 INCH SANGAMON IL COCORAHS 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 SSE PETERSBURG 39.92N 89.80W 09/29/2019 M3.09 INCH MENARD IL COCORAHS 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N ATHENS 39.98N 89.72W 09/29/2019 M3.04 INCH MENARD IL COCORAHS 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 W EDINBURG 39.66N 89.45W 09/29/2019 M2.93 INCH CHRISTIAN IL COCORAHS 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 W SPRINGFIELD 39.80N 89.72W 09/29/2019 M2.88 INCH SANGAMON IL COCORAHS 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN SE RIVERTON 39.85N 89.54W 09/29/2019 M2.82 INCH SANGAMON IL COCORAHS 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 SSE SPRINGFIELD 39.71N 89.59W 09/29/2019 M2.73 INCH SANGAMON IL COCORAHS 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 E CHATHAM 39.67N 89.66W 09/29/2019 M2.29 INCH SANGAMON IL COCORAHS 0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 W LINCOLN 40.15N 89.40W 09/29/2019 M2.10 INCH LOGAN IL COCORAHS
  7. Looks like Lake Michigan had a "hurricane" of their own. A waterspout near Beach Park, IL this evening. Courtesy of a poster on the Northern IL Severe weather FB group:
  8. 5/15/15 probs (5% TOR) on the 1AM Day 1. Still SLIGHT. Higher probs possible later in lower MI: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html ...Midwest into the Great Lakes and Mid MS Valley... A long-lived MCS over far southeastern MN and western/central WI early this morning will likely continue southeastward across WI for at least the next several hours along an instability gradient. This line of storms should continue to gradually weaken with southeastward extent this morning as it encounters a less unstable airmass. However, strong low/mid-level flow associated with a shortwave trough over the northern Plains may allow these storms to persist for longer than most model guidance suggests. An isolated hail/wind threat may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of northern IL and vicinity if these storms can maintain their intensity, especially on the southwestern flank of the line where instability is relatively greater. The convective scenario for today remains rather uncertain given the potential for this morning MCS to delay/disrupt diurnal destabilization, particularly with northward extent into Lower MI. A relatively greater chance for moderate to strong instability to develop may occur along a trailing outflow boundary from these morning storms across parts of northern IL/IN into far southern Lower MI. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to a southeastward-moving shortwave trough will overspread these areas by this afternoon. Additional convective development appears likely along or just ahead of a surface cold front by peak afternoon heating. The presence of a 50-70+ kt mid-level westerly jet will support strong effective bulk shear values over this region. Any storms that can form in this environment will likely become organized and pose an isolated large hail and damaging wind threat. Initially semi-discrete storms will probably grow upscale fairly quickly along the cold front or remnant outflow boundary, with a damaging wind threat potentially continuing into the evening across parts of central IL/IN and northwestern OH. The degree of the tornado threat will be dependent on storm mode, but a southwesterly low-level jet will overspread much of the warm sector through the afternoon. Isolated tornadoes will be possible given the strong low-level shear that will be present. Greater severe probabilities may be needed across some part of the Midwest into southern Lower MI, but too much uncertainty exists regarding morning storms to introduce them at them at this time.
  9. If the current Day 2 hatched area, which includes Chicago and Detroit, gets cranked up--and tornadic--I wonder WWTWCD. If they will have to interrupt Hurricane Dorian wall-to-wall coverage with Dr. Greg Forbes.
  10. Day 2 includes slight for SE WI, and most of the N half of IL and Southern Lower MI, as well as N IN and NW OH: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html ...Great Lakes... Models are in good agreement in a scenario with morning storms over the western Great Lakes in association with a strong southwesterly LLJ. A lingering severe risk may accompany this activity mainly in the form of isolated damaging gusts before dissipating by the late morning. A plume of steep 700-500mb lapse rates will advect northeast into the southern Great Lakes during the day. Despite a capping inversion, convergence near the boundary and strong heating will likely lead to local erosion of the cap and isolated to scattered storm development by late afternoon from northern IL east into southern Lower MI. A moderate to very unstable airmass is progged by guidance with 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE possible across IL and decreasing to 1500 J/kg into Lower MI. Hodographs are forecast to enlarge during the late afternoon/evening across the southern Great Lakes concurrent with diurnal storm development. A mix mode of supercells and multicells capable of all severe hazards are possible primarily during the 21z-03z period. Farther southwest over MO into western IL, lower storm coverage is forecast but large CAPE and a wind profile supportive of organized storms would lend a conditional risk for severe with the stronger storms.
  11. ENH risk for severe on this Labor Day from eastern ND to W WI, with slight including most of the northern half of WI: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html ...Northern Plains through upper Mississippi Valley... A shortwave trough will amplify as it moves east southeast through southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, reaching the northern Plains by early this evening and the upper MS Valley late tonight. Downstream from this feature, a warm front will advance northeast, and will be situated from a weak surface low in northwest ND through northeast SD and central IA by early evening. A cold front will extend southward from the low through the western Dakotas and advance east during the evening. A moist warm sector will reside south of the warm front. Surface dewpoints will range from the mid 60s to upper 70s F beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the eastward expansion of an elevated mixed layer (EML). Warm air at the base of the EML will result in a substantial cap in warm sector during the day. Theta-e advection along a southerly low-level jet will contribute to northeastward destabilization through the Dakotas and into the upper MS Valley this afternoon and evening with MUCAPE increasing from 2000-3000 J/kg north of the warm front. Isolated storms with a marginal hail threat may be ongoing from SD into NE within zone of warm advection. However, primary severe threat is expected during the afternoon into the evening when forcing for ascent associated with approaching shortwave trough and attendant strengthening low-level jet will result in development of storms north of the warm front over northern ND. These storms will be elevated, but effective bulk shear from 40-50 kt and a favorable thermodynamic environment will support a few supercells with large hail the initial primary threat. Storms may eventually evolve into an MCS with primary threat transitioning to damaging wind during the evening and overnight as activity continues southeast through MN into WI along instability gradient. Given favorable low-level hodographs, a conditional threat will exist for a couple of tornadoes with any surface-based storms that can develop on the warm front. However, current indications are that the warm sector will probably remain capped to parcels originating in the boundary layer.
  12. Heavy rains and flash flooding from IMO freak thunderstorms in the SPI area from roughly 2-7AM Sunday morning. Chatham, just southwest of Springfield may have had upwards of at least 7 inches of rain. https://www.sj-r.com/news/20190901/storms-sock-springfield-area-early-sunday-morning
  13. Watch possible for SE MO, S IL, and central IN: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1791.html
  14. New D1 outlook has Slight across most of southern IL, but the main focus will be outside the sub in C/W MO and E KS, where there's a hatched for hail: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Tomorrow's D2 has a Slight reaching western IL: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA AND KANSAS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS.. [ . . . ] ...Dakotas and northern NE into IA and IL... Substantial height falls will occur over the Dakotas during the day with increasing deep-layer shear. Storms will form relatively early along the cold front over the western Dakotas, and will increase in intensity as they encounter a destabilizing air mass to the east. Damaging winds and hail will be possible. Models suggest storms will make it into western MN by late evening, but likely weaker. ...KS into MO... Storms are forecast to be ongoing from eastern KS into MO Saturday morning, possibly in the form of an MCS on the nose of the low-level jet. Damaging winds will be possible initially, but a weakening trend is expected after about 18Z. Behind this initial activity, strong heating of a moist air mass, beneath cool temperatures aloft will lead to strong to perhaps extreme instability, with MLCAPE values in excess of 3500-4000 J/kg over parts of KS, northwest MO, and into NE. There is spread between the models regarding where afternoon and evening convection will initiate, and this may depend on modifying outflow boundaries. At this time, the greatest probability of initiation appears to be across the KS/MO/NE/IA quad-state area. Supercells will be possible initially, with all modes of severe. An MCS is likely to evolve out of this activity by evening as it continues east toward IL. While significant severe is possible given the parameter space, will defer potential "sig" severe delineation to later outlooks when predictability is greater.
  15. ILX not ruling out storms extending into Sunday, and the possbility of heavy rain again too in parts of the CWA: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 352 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Dry and pleasant conditions will continue through this evening across central and southeast Illinois with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Then more unsettled weather is expected to move into the area overnight into this weekend as a couple disturbances track into Illinois from the central plains. Ample cloud cover will keep moderate temperatures again on Friday, then more sunshine during this weekend into early next weekend, will warm temperatures to above normal levels along with more humid conditions. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Weak 1015 mb surface high pressure ridge extending from Lake Huron and Lake Michigan down across IL was providing another dry day for central and southeast IL with partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon. Temps at 330 pm were in the upper 70s and lower 80s while dewpoints were in the upper 50s from Peoria nw and low to mid 60s se of Peoria. Scattered to broken cumulus clouds over IL at mid afternoon while thicker cirrus clouds were spreading east into parts of northern and western CWA at mid afternoon. These clouds were from MCS over nw MO/SW IA, far se NE and far ne KS. Consensus of CAMs take this MCS ESE across central MO and into central/sw IL overnight with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms over much of CWA during overnight, and lingering into mid Friday morning. More redevelopment of scattered thunderstorms possible late Fri afternoon into Friday evening especially over central and southern CWA. SPC day2 outlook has marginal risk of severe storms over much of CWA, with a slight risk of severe thunderstorms sw CWA including Schuyler, Sangamon and Christian counties sw. The risk of severe storms now appears stronger during the late afternoon into mid evening over sw CWA if redevelopment does occur in this area due to more unstable conditions. There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for Fri into Fri night over much of central IL, while slight risk is in sw IL. Lows overnight mostly in the lower 60s with some mid 60s in west central IL. Highs Friday similar to today, around 80 central il and 80-85F in southeast IL. && .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Another MCS possible to affect parts of CWA during Friday night into Sat morning and have increase pops to address this possibly as model consensus have trended higher with qpf/pops then. SPC day3 outlook has marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday along and north of I-72 while a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall too over much of area. Convection chances to become more isolated Sat afternoon, then models show another MCS to affect IA/WI/northern MO and into parts of central and northern IL during Sat night into Sunday morning. Excessive rainfall again possible but shifting further north over IL and may be a few strong thunderstorms too. Highs Sat in the 80s, warmest in southern CWA. Highs Sunday in the upper 80s to around 90F with heat indices Sunday afternoon in the mid to upper 90s, approaching 100F in southeast IL. Very warm and humid conditions look to continue from Mon thru Wed and a bit cooler on Thu. Mid/upper level ridge expands form the sw States toward IL early next week and also shifts the higher chances of showers/thunderstorms further north and east. Have dry conditions Sunday night thru Monday night, then slight chances of convection on Tue. Have 20-30% pops Tue night and Wed with a disturbance and weak front moving se thru area. &&