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Tim from Springfield (IL)

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    Chatham, IL

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  1. Although CIPS's analogs only go back to 1979, could the 12/18/1957 outbreak be a comparable analog to today's threat? That included an F4 in Murphysboro, IL and an F5 in Perry County. However, the bulk of that outbreak was late afternoon and early evening; as opposed to the entirely nocturnal threat tonight (ILX is timing spotter activation for 7PM-3AM tonight and early tomorrow morning. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_sequence_of_December_18–20,_1957
  2. If it's OK, I think tomorrow's severe and heavy rain threats now warrants its own thread. Will be interesting to see this afternoon's Day 2 Update. Wouldn't be surprised if most of MO eventually goes MDT tomorrow. Overlooked in the midst of tomorrow's ENH for MO and W IL (with hatched TOR possibilities in C/S MO) is that the same areas may get an early start on the severe tonight into early tomorrow. Marginal from Springfield, IL westward for tonight with Slight in the north half of MO into Eastern KS: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Threat may continue into Monday for the far eastern portion of the sub. Slight for S OH with marginal extending south and east: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html
  3. I suggest a separate thread for today's action and tommorrow's ENH/hatched wind right on the 1-year anniversary of 8/10/20. Tornado with "definite rotation" confirmed near Ohio, IL (north of Princeton): PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 611 PM CDT MON AUG 9 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0603 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 E OHIO 41.56N 89.42W 08/09/2021 BUREAU IL TRAINED SPOTTER DEFINITE ROTATION.
  4. I would probably recommend that today's ongoing storms and the Tuesday-Wednesday threats be made a separate thread\ Hoping everyone is staying safe tonight Hard to believe the exact same areas being tonight and under the gun again tomorrow were the same areas hit 1 year ago tomorrow (8/10/20)
  5. With the Atlantic hurricane season now expected to have at least 25 named storms, and the heat wave earlier this summer in Siberia, is it just me or does anyone else think that COVID-19 (the virus itself and the effects) might actually be altering the weather this year? This article thinks so and is using the early Arctic ice melt as an example: https://news.mongabay.com/2020/06/climate-conundrum-could-covid-19-be-linked-to-early-arctic-ice-melt/
  6. And another D0 parked directly over St. Louis city and County, and most of St. Charles County, MO. Plus between Detroit and Toledo, and in western IA and western KY. Also a large D1 in Minnesota.
  7. Not even a marginal risk in this area and the pulse-type storms are already spawning a mini-severe outbreak in central IL. TOG southwest of Taylorville, IL. Decatur in crosshairs if it continues on its path: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Lincoln IL 615 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020 The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Christian County in central Illinois... * Until 645 PM CDT. * At 614 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Harvel, or 5 miles southwest of Morrisonville, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * The tornado will be near... Morrisonville around 625 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Palmer.
  8. Is it possible that SPC's 2000Z forecast may upgrade a narrow part of the ENH area to either a hatched TOR area, and/or a MDT risk? If so, I say probably mostly north of I-80 and along/E of IL-26
  9. Severe Thunderstorm Watch just also issued in the last few minutes for Eastern Illinois (roughly along and east of US-51, including Decatur) and Western IN. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0192.html
  10. I updated the end date to Tuesday (May 19) since WPC keeps a Marginal Excessive Rainfall risk for SE IN/S OH into Tuesday in its Day 3 outlook: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=3
  11. Severe Thunderstorm Warning south of Jacksonville, IL in northern Greene County. Thunderstorms have been moving into western Illinois (moving NNE) the last few hours. Also some good storms (nothing severe yet) northeast and east of STL. It wouldn't surprise me if the 2000Z Day 1 extends the Marginal in Iowa to also include parts of MO and possibly most of IL. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service St Louis MO 220 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020 The National Weather Service in St Louis has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Greene County in southwestern Illinois... * Until 300 PM CDT. * At 220 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near White Hall, moving northeast at 10 mph. HAZARD...Quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. * Locations impacted include... White Hall, Carrollton, Roodhouse, Patterson, Hillview, Walkersville, Belltown, Berdan, Haypress and Barrow.
  12. The latest Day 2 for tomorrow extends the slight back to central OH, and marginal to C/S IN. Also a 5/30/15 Enhanced north of NYC: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html ...Northeast States and Ohio Valley regions... Shortwave trough now situated over ND near the international border will continue into the Great Lakes Friday, reaching the northeast states later Friday afternoon and evening. A low amplitude impulse may precede this feature. By late afternoon the accompanying cold front should extend from a surface low in upstate NY southwest into the lower Great Lakes and OH Valley. Warm front will extend from the surface low through southern New England. Modest low-level moisture with upper 50s to around 60 F dewpoints will advect through the pre-frontal warm sector and contribute to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE as the surface layer warms during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along and ahead of the front by early to mid afternoon within the weakly capped, destabilizing warm sector. A mid-level jet within the base of the approaching shortwave trough will contribute to 35-45 kt effective bulk shear over the northeast U.S. supporting organized storms including a few supercells and bowing segments with damaging wind the main threat. The low-level jet is forecast to strengthen by late afternoon into early evening across the northeast U.S. with 0-1 km hodographs becoming sufficient for isolated tornadoes, especially with any storms interacting with the warm front across southern New England. Farther west across OH, deep-layer shear will be weaker, but wind profiles with 40-45 kt flow in the 700-500 mb layer will be supportive of a few damaging wind gusts as the boundary layer destabilizes during the afternoon.
  13. I've already started a thread encompassing tomorrow's severe weather (plus in case tonight's marginal in W IL/E IA ramps up) through this weekend's heavy rain threat as the front stalls:
  14. Day 2 for tomorrow: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html ...Eastern Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley, Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Lower Great Lakes... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning in a low-level warm advection regime across parts of the mid MS Valley into the Midwest and lower Great Lakes. A weak mid-level perturbation associated with this convection should continue to shift eastward across these regions through the day. In its wake, a more amplified shortwave trough should progress over the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest by Thursday evening. At the surface, a weak low initially over IA Thursday morning should develop northeastward to lower MI by the early evening, with a warm front lifting northward across much of the Midwest/OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes. A trailing cold front across the mid MS Valley into the central Plains is forecast to make only slow southeastward progress through the period. In the wake of the morning convection, low-level moistening, diurnal heating, and steepening mid-level lapse rates owing to an EML advecting eastward from the Plains will contribute to a destabilizing airmass by Thursday afternoon along/south of both the warm and cold fronts. Instability should be stronger from eastern KS into the mid MS Valley and perhaps IL, where MLCAPE may reach 2000-3000+ J/kg before convective initiation. Storms should form along/near the cold front by mid to late afternoon, with large-scale ascent possibly being aided by another weak mid-level perturbation. The stronger mid-level flow associated with the northern Plains/Upper Midwest shortwave trough may remain generally displaced to the north of the warm sector. Still, there should be enough of a veering/strengthening wind profile through the low/mid levels to support organized storms. Initial convective development along or just south of the front may pose a large hail threat given the steep mid-level lapse rates and marginal effective bulk shear values (around 30-35 kt) supporting occasional supercells. Although low-level flow is not forecast to be particularly strong, a couple tornadoes may also occur with these any semi-discrete storms. The Slight Risk has been expanded slightly northward across MO/IA/IL to account for better model agreement in the placement of the front Thursday afternoon. Damaging winds should become the primary threat with time as storms congeal into multiple east-southeastward moving clusters/bows through the evening. By late Thursday evening/overnight, this activity should weaken as it encounters increasing convective inhibition with southeastward extent across the warm sector. From roughly IN eastward into Lower MI and OH, low-level moisture and diurnal heating will probably remain more limited owing to morning convection. Still, enough instability should develop by late afternoon to pose some large hail/damaging wind threat along and south of the northward-moving warm front. Latest guidance suggests this front will probably extend across southern Lower MI by Thursday evening, with one or more clusters potentially moving eastward along or just south of this boundary. The Slight Risk for damaging winds has been extended eastward across more of northern/central IN, southern Lower MI, and into northwestern OH to account for this threat. Also Heavy Rain this weekend including in central Illinois. ILX's take:
  15. From ChicagoStorm in the general severe thread regarding tomorrow: "Tomorrow definitely holds potential, but all hinges on tonight/tomorrow mornings activity. SGT risk looks good for now, but could need upgrade to ENH in the morning once everything becomes clear." Going to take the bait and start a thread for the upcoming storm system including tomorrow's severe threat. This thread can also be a catch-all for other threats including the heavy rain expected in parts of the sub (especially MO/IL) through Sunday, as the system stalls. Today's threat far west of the sub but SPC's Day 1 has consistently had a marginal up to along and west of the Illinois River: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
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