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janetjanet998

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About janetjanet998

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  1. 2018 General Severe Weather

    surprise many mini low topped hooking SUPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA INTO THIS EVENING. ..DISCUSSION RECENT SINGLE-RADAR AND MRMS DATA HAVE DISPLAYED AN ORGANIZATIONAL UPTICK IN SHALLOW SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT, A TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE WAS RECENTLY OBSERVED WITH A CELL OVER CRENSHAW CO, AL, SUGGESTING SOME INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL IS BEING REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON. KEVX DATA DISPLAY A WIND PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR THE SUSTENANCE OF LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES, AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS CERTAINLY ADEQUATE FOR TORNADOGENESIS WITH THESE ISOLATED CELLS, AS WELL AS NEW DEVELOPMENT MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FROM SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
  2. C021-073-140115- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0062.000000T0000Z-180414T0115Z/ CALDWELL LA-OUACHITA LA- 742 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR WESTERN CALDWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN OUACHITA PARISHES... AT 742 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF CLARKS, OR 8 MILES WEST OF COLUMBIA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.
  3. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 724 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN MOREHOUSE PARISH IN NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... * UNTIL 830 PM CDT * AT 724 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTH OF STERLINGTON, OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF HUTTIG, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.
  4. ATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 711 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL UNION PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA... * UNTIL 745 PM CDT * AT 711 PM CDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF STERLINGTON, OR 15 MILES NORTH OF CLAIBORNE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. A NOAA AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE TORNADO REMAINS ON THE GROUND, WITH POWER FLASHES VISIBLE.
  5. EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 634 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018 ARC081-133-140000- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0056.000000T0000Z-180414T0000Z/ LITTLE RIVER AR-SEVIER AR- 634 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN LITTLE RIVER AND CENTRAL SEVIER COUNTIES... AT 634 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WINTHROP, OR NEAR HORATIO, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
  6. more cells maturing over North LA with couplets ..one now t-storm warned with TOR possible wording.. so now we have the main line back in OK/Tx...the supercells on the OK/AR border ..and now maybe more Sups in north LA I suspect until the main line catches up....the two lines of scattered Sups will continue to produce Possible Tornadoes
  7. 56 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY... AT 555 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF MULBERRY, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.
  8. FT Smith storm Now TOR warned also TOR warning near Bull shoals lake area south of Branson and another in NE Texas now
  9. CAPE still 1500-2000 or so over AR low level shear really increasing. HEL values now 300-450 in the 1km level and up to 550 in 3KM deep level shear now 60 kts
  10. storm on south side of Ft smith now starting to rotate edit: now T-storm warned
  11. TOR warned cell in AR wrapping up tighter
  12. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 131906Z - 132130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS, NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE INITIAL THREAT BUT A TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP. WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 991 MB LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. A DRYLINE BEGINS NEAR THE FRONT IN EASTERN KANSAS AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH OTHER CELLS INITIATING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW IN THE OMAHA AREA. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE CAP WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE STORMS SHOULD REACH NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY MID AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE STORMS, A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ANALYZED FROM FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS NORTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THE RAP IS SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS STEADILY INCREASE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE INSTABILITY CORRIDOR THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD REACH THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE INSTABILITY, SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORT LARGE HAIL FORMATION WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY AS STORM ORGANIZE. AS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP.
  13. new storms developing in LLJ axis over NE TX ahead of the older elevated stuff...... RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 40 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 150 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF ARKANSAS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. ..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... NUMEROUS TORNADOES EXPECTED WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SUMMARY...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, POSING A RISK OF TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION.
  14. RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 39 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 115 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST KANSAS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES.
  15. 1)dry line firing in OK... 2) some clearing over AR ahead of the eastern convection 75/64 at LIT now 3) CU building in SW IA area
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