janetjanet998

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  1. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT TUE MAY 04 2021 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS TO WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST AL... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ..SUMMARY NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. ..TX TO THE SOUTHEAST COMPLEX FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF ONGOING CONVECTION FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A MOIST AND MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS ACROSS A BROAD REGION AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. AS NOTED IN 12Z REGIONAL OBSERVED SOUNDINGS, THIS IS WHERE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS ESTABLISHED ATOP RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S THAT PRECEDES AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE ARKLATEX AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. INFLUENCED BY THE PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH, STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CORRESPONDING UPTICK IN WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL EXPECTED ASIDE FROM A PERSISTENT SEVERE HAIL RISK. STRENGTHENING BELT OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING GROWTH INTO MULTIPLE QUASI-LINEAR MCSS. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, SOME SIGNIFICANT, AND BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PRIMARY QLCS THAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO AL.
  2. ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 602 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... NORTHEASTERN HOOD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 630 PM CDT. * AT 601 PM CDT, TRAINED SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR GRANBURY, MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.
  3. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0496 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 PM CDT MON MAY 03 2021 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 031908Z - 032015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD EASTERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY AND WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM CENTRAL WI SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN MO. THIS IS ALSO JUST AHEAD OF A REMNANT MCV THAT IS SLOWLY PROPAGATING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RECENT RAP MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCIN IS DECREASING ACROSS THE CLEARING WARM SECTOR WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S/UPPER 80S AND DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING IS ERODING REMAINING INHIBITION. INSOLATION, COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 C/KM, IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WHILE THE MOST FAVORABLE AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY LIMITED TO EASTERN MO/WESTERN IL, THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD WITH TIME AS CLEARING CONTINUES. 30-45 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEARLY ORTHOGONAL TO THE FRONT AND A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE MCV (NOTED IN SURFACE OBS ACROSS CENTRAL MO) SHOULD SUPPORT SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS WITHIN A BROKEN LINE ALONG THE FRONT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITH ESRH VALUES NEAR 150 M2/S2, WHICH MAY SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT - PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MCV ACROSS CENTRAL IL WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST (THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS POTENTIAL IS LOW). REGARDLESS, A WATCH IS LIKELY IN THE COMING HOURS AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. ..MOORE/GRAMS.. 05/03/2021
  4. It wasn't just you. Thread in central/western forum yesterday about MS very low user count as it was ongoing keep an eye on Dallas metro today for another sneaky event I actually hate high hyped day threads..too many busts calls at 1pm
  5. ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 209 PM EDT MON MAY 3 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL ABBEVILLE COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... NORTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 300 PM EDT. * AT 209 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF ELBERTON, OR NEAR LOWNDESVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!
  6. HE SECOND AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE TO SURFACE FRONT INTERSECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TX BEFORE SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST OK. LARGE BUOYANCY GIVEN THE VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS, SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SIGNIFICANT. GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS ON THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESPONSE THIS EVENING RENDERING UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW LONG DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE MAINTAINED. GIVEN RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE LARGE MLCAPE, THERE IS CONCERN FOR AT LEAST CONDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS A PORTION OF NORTH TX INTO SOUTHEAST OK. IF UPSCALE GROWTH OCCURS TOO QUICKLY, THIS MAY NOT BE REALIZED, BUT HAVE HIGHLIGHTED A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL IN THIS REGION. OTHERWISE, UPSCALE GROWTH WILL OCCUR AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING RENDERING A PREDOMINANT SEVERE WIND THREAT SPREADING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
  7. That little complex in MO= tops slowly cooling....if meso-low can form may back winds over central IL later HRRR picking up in on this some
  8. LLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1026 AM EDT MON MAY 3 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... CENTRAL FULTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... * UNTIL 1045 AM EDT. * AT 1026 AM EDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED OVER SANDTOWN, OR 9 MILES EAST OF DOUGLASVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
  9. looks like its by Kansas city now..some spin to it If winds can back ahead of it may be a few surprises if cells form ahead of it on WAA arm perhaps a bit south of models (me to I-72)
  10. Man still going ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1037 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN ITAWAMBA COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHERN TISHOMINGO COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHEASTERN PRENTISS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 1115 PM CDT. * AT 1036 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SANDY SPRINGS, OR 12 MILES NORTH OF FULTON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.