janetjanet998

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About janetjanet998

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    Peoria IL

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  1. Hi guys Just some updates on my little obsession with lake Cumberland.... the lake was 709 feet last Saturday it now is almost 725 ft..in fact it has risen 12 feet in the past 48 hours or so as inflows increased from the previous days rains and storms trained over it Sunday..in fact at one point for a few hours it was rising at 1/2 foot or more per hour 5-7 inches fell over the lake and parts of the northern basin with 3-4 inches over the southern basin outflows were 10,400cfs , was up to 14,000cfs this morning The link to the actually inflows posted here in 2019 is dead but I calculated back then a .01 change in lake level each hour is about 7000 cfs The Lake rose .16 ft last hour so ( 16 * 7000) + (14K outflows) = so inflows are still an impressive 126,000 cfs or so The most they can outflow without flooding properties downstream and sandbagging first is 29,000 Cfs long story short the lake should hit 730 by this weekend which is about where it was in 2019 before the big rains The mistake they made back then was not to use the full 29,000 cfs outflow but instead used 15-22K the weeks leading up to the big event as a result they had to flow out 35,000 , then 45,000 the finally 60,000 at the last minute to prevent the Dam from overflowing luckily that spring was pretty dry when lake levels were elevated above 740 after the crest The stars have to align just right but one of the stars is..a high lake level going into an La nina spring The good news no rain for at least the next 7 days but I hope a dry forecast won't mean that they don't utilize the full 29,000 cfs outflow now the difference between 22,000 and 29,000 outflow is .about .a 1/4 of a foot (.01 per hour) over many days that can really add up and make a difference later as far as flood storage edit: it does look like they do plan to increase ourflows to 22,000 tomorrow and 27,000 thursday https://www.tva.com/environment/lake-levels/Wolf-Creek
  2. New crest forecast at Cario 40.5 on March 7th..
  3. 3 inches along OH river the next five days...running high from snowmelt .plus very heavy rains over the TN valley, .this water can be stored in KY lake but will eventually need to be released into the OH river OH river forecast as of yesterday, crest at Cario IL 35.7 on march 4th (without most of the rain shown below) flood stage 40 record 61.7
  4. BUF 1041 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2021 NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/ LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE ERIE OVERACHIEVED OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE CROSSED THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPS OF -14C. MANY REPORTS OVER 20 INCHES IN NARROW AREA OF SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY WITH A COUPLE REPORTS AROUND 30 INCHES. HIGH SLRS AND FOCUS OFF THE THE LIMITED BUT STILL VERY EFFECTIVE OPEN WATERS OF EASTERN LAKE ERIE HELPED TREMENDOUSLY. LAKE EFFECT OVER WAYNE INTO N. CAYUGA WAS STEADY BUT NOT NEAR AS STRONG AS THE BAND OFF LAKE ERIE. AS THE FAVORABLE BACKGROUND FORCING AND MOISTURE IS JUST APPROACHING NOW, SEEING THIS LAKE EFFECT INCREASE AND THAT SHOULD STAY THE CASE WITH 1-2 INCH PER HOUR RATES INTO THIS EVENING. EXTENDED THE GOING WARNING THERE UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE HEAVY AT TIMES INTO THE EVENING THOUGH WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED LIMITED IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING.
  5. 850 temps -14C or so delta T's decent but not extreme..it looks like there is a small ice free area with a decent fetch on the NE side of the lake but this isn't a case with deltas 20-25 with a full open fetch looks like a small shortwave bringing moisture and there seems to be some type of convergence just SW of BUF with another band this one will be studied for sure Edit: now it looks like Huron connection getting going with the leftovers crossing that small open fetch and recharging and converging with another small band hugging the south shore
  6. and you are correct...at least some if not most seems to be smokestacks you can clearly see the Byron nuclear plant SW of RFD edit: also check out the "clear streak" jetting east across the lake east of MKE on your shot
  7. wow it looks like the CU is developing over non total snow covered (non farm fields) areas where it isn't a total white out like urban area and wooded areas in river valleys look at the IL river valley now , CU developing over darker areas (woods) and moving SE, even its river tributaries like Vermillion and Kankakee same for parts of Rock river or I'm just imagining things? edit: or maybe it's just urban areas. I can make out Peoria with CU streaming SE from it I can also make out smaller cities I think like Lasalle and Ottawa
  8. update : 2-18 this is getting insane active pattern to continue with more snow northern sections and rain south major OH, mid-lower MS river flooding likely
  9. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 956 AM CST THU FEB 18 2021 UPDATE 955 AM CST... WE DID PUSH OUT A QUICK UPDATE A LITTLE WHILE AGO TO INCREASE POPS NOTABLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, NAMELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WHERE PERSISTENT NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS HELPING TO SQUEEZE OUT LAKE-ENHANCED SNOWFALL. CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MAXIMIZED INTO DUPAGE, COOK, AND LAKE (IL) COUNTIES EVEN INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND HAVE ADDED A SLIVER OF ADDITIONAL 1-2" OF EXTREMELY FLUFFY SNOWFALL (SLRS NEAR 30+:1) IN THIS AREA. IT'S A BIT UNCLEAR HOW THINGS TREND INTO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUIDANCE OFFERING UP A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS HERE. THINKING WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISLODGE THIS LAKE ENHANCEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THINGS PUSHING A BIT MORE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVEN INTO THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE, WE'VE GOT JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL ASCENT TO SQUEEZE OUT FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE TODAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
  10. got tp be close to SN+ on the I-294 at Willow Road IDOT cam in the band north of ORD. big fatties (at 9:34) https://www.travelmidwest.com/lmiga/showCamera.jsp?id=IL-ISTHA-kd0fNjSsumZa1oeypUWqju1vzBo=&direction=N (edit lessened now at 9:43)
  11. from yesterday and likely some compaction since but wow if these are correct SNOW DEPTH (NE IL) IL-LK-69 : HIGHWOOD 0.9 S * : 0.01 / 0.1 / 35.0 / IL-CK-211 : OAK LAWN 1.6 WNW * : T / T / 31.1 IL-CK-149 : OAK LAWN 0.5 SSW * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 28.5 /
  12. mesolow hitting the IL/WI border clipping NE Lake county IL and then into SE WI don't think that was expected at this point (LOT said LES snow should move east and up the MI shoreline)
  13. LOT has been dealing wth LES somewhere in their CWA for over 36 hours,..impressive for that side of the lake edit: you can make out the mesolow on short wave IR over central LM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 1004 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2021 UPDATE 955 PM CST TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN HIGHER LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES INTO PORTER COUNTY, IN THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT, AS WELL AS EXTENDING CLOUDS OVER SOME PARTS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LONGER AND BUMPING UP FORECAST LOWS THERE. WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW (FOR THIS EVENT) IS NEARING THE END, IT HAS FOR MOST OF THE EVENING HAD A CONCENTRATED AREA OF MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS INTO PORTER COUNTY. THIS HAS BEEN WELL ESTABLISHED ON LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A PRESUMED MESO-LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE PER ANALYZED WIND STREAMLINES ON HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE, THE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE NOT THROUGH THE ROOF (FOR INSTANCE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF ONLY 6,000 FT), BUT BECAUSE OF THE VERY COLD LOW-LEVELS, THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS OVERLAPPED BY THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD DEPTHS. WE SUSPECT SOME PARTS OF PORTER COUNTY HAVE RECEIVED AROUND TO A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES THIS EVENING BASED ON RADAR AND WEBCAM IMAGERY, AND COULD FINISH WITH SOME NIGHTTIME TOTALS OF 3-4 IN ISOLATED SPOTS OF NORTHERN PORTER. EVEN IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN, FEEL THE NATURE OF THIS AFTER THE PROLONGED EVENT IS BEST HANDLED WITH G-NOWS, A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT, AND OTHER MESSAGING.
  14. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 931 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2021 UPDATE 926 AM CST WHILE OUR MAIN SYSTEM SNOW HAS ENDED, LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES BOTH ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS MORNING. AREAS FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO WAUKEGAN HAVE BEEN REPORTING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNDER ONE MILE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ONSHORE BOTH IN NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN THIS MORNING, BUT AS THE DAY CONTINUES THE FOCUS SHOULD REALLY BE IN NORTHWEST IN. RADAR DEPICTIONS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. CONVERGENCE IS WEAKER TODAY BUT THERE ARE SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED BANDS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH MOST OF THE TODAY. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE AT IN SPOTS. KMD