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janetjanet998

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About janetjanet998

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    Peoria IL

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  1. janetjanet998

    Severe Threat 8/12/19

    yikes now just NE of town though?
  2. janetjanet998

    Severe Threat 8/12/19

    EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 922 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2019 ILC021-130245- /O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-190813T0245Z/ CHRISTIAN- 922 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL CHRISTIAN COUNTY... AT 921 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR STONINGTON, OR NORTHEAST OF TAYLORVILLE, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.
  3. janetjanet998

    Severe Threat 8/12/19

    SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 914 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2019 ILC021-130245- /O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-190813T0245Z/ CHRISTIAN- 914 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL CHRISTIAN COUNTY... AT 914 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR EDINBURG, OR 7 MILES NORTH OF TAYLORVILLE, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.
  4. janetjanet998

    Severe Threat 8/12/19

    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 575 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 825 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2019 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WESTERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA EXTREME EASTERN MISSOURI * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 825 PM UNTIL 300 AM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...INCREASINGLY FOCUS BAND OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER CENTRAL IL, ALONG WITH ISOLATED, POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF STL, ALL MOVING INTO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WATCH AREA, WITH ALL SEVERE TYPES POSSIBLE.
  5. janetjanet998

    Severe Threat 8/12/19

    ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 814 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN MENARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN SANGAMON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 845 PM CDT. * AT 814 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ASHLAND, OR NEAR VIRGINIA, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
  6. janetjanet998

    Severe Threat 8/12/19

    LOT mentions convection is elevated AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 713 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2019 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 713 PM CDT THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT SINCE EARLIER. WE STILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL, MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LA SALLE-PERU TO KANKAKEE TO RENSSELAER. NORTH OF THERE, FOR ROCKFORD TO CHICAGO, THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD EVENING THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOME. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH IS A GIVEN WITH ANY DEEPER SHOWERS TONIGHT. DETAILS HAVE BECOME MORE CLEARER WITH THE GENERAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR TONIGHT, BUT CERTAINLY STILL SOME FUZZINESS. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A A 1007 MB LOW NEAR THE SOUTHEAST IOWA BORDER WITH MISSOURI. AN ATTENDANT SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT IS DRAPED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, TO JUST SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON- NORMAL. TO THE NORTH OF THERE, SOME REINFORCEMENT FROM A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT MAY BE LAKE-ENHANCED, IS INCHING SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES IS AN AREA OF VERY LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ALTHOUGH WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS AND STRONG SHEAR PROFILES ALOFT DUE TO 45-50 KT 700-500 MB FLOW AND VEERING PROFILES FROM 1-4 KM. ISOLATED, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION THAT HAS OCCURRED IN THIS QUASI-WARM FRONTAL ZONE HAS BEEN SUPERCELLULAR PER RADAR AND SPOTTER PHOTOS, BUT ALMOST ENTIRELY ELEVATED WITH ROTATION ABOVE 1 KM. THIS HAS BEEN NON-SUSTAINING AND THAT IS LIKELY DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED EFFECTIVE PROFILES. SOME DEEPER, LOWER ROOTED CONVECTION HAD RECENTLY DONE A LITTLE BETTER SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON NEAR THE EFFECTIVE FRONT. AS A SHORT WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI APPROACHES, WARM ADVECTION ALOFT STRENGTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE, WITH 25 KT 850 MB FLOW ON RECENT ILX VWP DATA. ACROSS WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS (MAINLY SOUTH OF I-88), THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS THROUGH 9-10 P.M. THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD. THE LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ALMOST NON-EXISTENT IN THE AREA THUS FAR OWING TO THE VERY MOIST CONDITIONS (PWATS 1.9-2.1 INCHES) BUT SHOULD SEE SOME IN THE SOUTHERN CWA AT LEAST IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE SIGNAL FOR AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT WOULD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA HAS BEEN LESS IN OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND CONVECTIVE ALLOW MODEL SOLUTIONS, SO EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY, SOME OF WHICH CERTAINLY STILL COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF OVER 40 KT. THE ZONE OF EFFECTIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY LOOKS LIKE IT IS PRETTY NARROW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT, MAYBE BY ABOUT 30 MILES OR SO, AND AT LEAST RIGHT NOW LIKELY ONLY INCLUDES PARTS OF LIVINGSTON AND FORD COUNTIES FOR WHAT WOULD BE SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL IF MATURE CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AND TRACK OVER THAT AREA. THE LIGHTER SURFACE WIND FIELD THOUGH IS A PROBLEM FOR THAT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS AREA CLOSELY THOUGH AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. AS FOR HEAVY RAIN, THERE HAS BEEN TROPICAL-LIKE RAINFALL RATES IN ACTIVITY THUS FAR, AGAIN APART FROM ANY LIGHTNING. RAINFALL RATES TO ONE INCH PER HOUR HAVE BEEN SEEN WITH 35 DBZ ECHOES. IN THE CENTRAL CWA, WHERE THERE IS BOTH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PUSHING AGAINST THIS FROM THE SOUTH, IS THE CORRIDOR WHERE THERE CAN BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. GIVEN THOUGH A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TIME WINDOW OF THIS, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT STILL LOOKS SLIGHT/LOCALIZED. MTF
  7. janetjanet998

    Severe Threat 8/12/19

    AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2019 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IL TO SOUTHWEST OH... ..SUMMARY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO LATER TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..01Z UPDATE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF EARLY-DAY REMNANT MCS. 13/00Z SOUNDING FROM DVN SUPPORTS THIS DELAYED DEVELOPMENT WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND SEASONALLY WEAK BUOYANCY. HOWEVER, ILX EXHIBITS SUBSTANTIAL MUCAPE WITH AMPLE SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR OR SO SCATTERED UPDRAFTS HAVE GRADUALLY DEEPENED ACROSS CENTRAL IL SUCH THAT LIGHTNING IS NOW OBSERVED ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM ADAMS COUNTY TO MACON COUNTY. LATEST THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE, SHIFTING EAST TOWARD CENTRAL IN WITHIN BROAD WESTERLY FLOW REGIME. HAVE LOWERED SEVERE PROBS ACROSS MUCH OF IA AND NORTHERN IL TO REFLECT A MORE NARROW CORRIDOR OF EXPECTED SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED SUPERCELL HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH SOUTH OF MOT. THIS STORM HAS EVOLVED ALONG PROGRESSIVE FRONT AND SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR PRIMARILY HAIL.
  8. janetjanet998

    Severe Threat 8/12/19

    The meso came out 3 hours ago and said watch Likely by 23z if not sooner .. it’s almost 00z. Another clue of a problem
  9. janetjanet998

    Severe Threat 8/12/19

    Puffy cumulus to my east ... devlopment looks like it’s slightly elevated visually sharper higher CU to my West into the sun
  10. janetjanet998

    Severe Threat 8/12/19

    I could tell visually around 4 there was an inversion .... and the CU was shallow
  11. janetjanet998

    Severe Threat 8/12/19

    So far not much .. I think there is an inversion layer and the cloud cover helped to keep Instability down
  12. janetjanet998

    Severe Threat 8/12/19

    There have been and still are shallow stratocumulus all around. Also mid level flow has indeed weakened to 45 kts from 60
  13. janetjanet998

    Severe Threat 8/12/19

    cloud cover still over the NE half of the enhanced area
  14. janetjanet998

    Severe Threat 8/12/19

    a couple hours old but DVN update..mentionss faster movement of the speed max or MCV .UPDATE... Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 An MCV and upper level shortwave were moving into east central Iowa at 11 am, spawning a large area of redeveloping showers as the lift was encountering the destabilizing airmass over southeast Iowa, northeast MO and west central IL. With MUCAPES of 1000 J/KG, this activity that formed over the last hour has yet to produce lightning, but could intensify as the large scale lift from the shortwave spreads east-southeast into an area that has seen filtered sunshine. Bulk shear values of 30 to 40 kts in the 0-3 km layer in this same area will also favor intensification. These trends have so far not been handled by high res convective allowing models, which continue to catch up to the faster progression of the MCV. Will still need to watch for the track and timing of the main surface low out over west central IA late this morning, which will be the main trigger for additional storms later this afternoon and evening as 12Z global models have this feature reaching west central IL by 00Z. Trends with cloud cover and how much surface CAPE develops in the wake of the current activity will be critical as there may be sufficient low level shear/helicity along the surface boundary and low center for supercells and related severe weather hazards including tornadoes. This is outlined in SPC`s Enhanced Risk area maintained over SE IA into west central IL. The forecast has been updated for the trends with less thunderstorm coverage, but widespread showers late morning into early in the afternoon. This may also hold high temperatures down some, especially across the north.
  15. janetjanet998

    Severe Threat 8/12/19

    I have to wonder how that 60kt 500mb speed max currently over eastern IA will play a role... it is forecast to move into IND and weaken decreasing deep layer shear in fact 16z RAP only has 35-40 kt flow at 00z over IL..unless it is weakening it too fast with COD down....can't view the radar VADs
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