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janetjanet998

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About janetjanet998

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    Peoria IL

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  1. janetjanet998

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    and the river at NOLA will be above 15 feet well into August.... they just announced today they are keeping the spillway up north open longer (was going to close this week) and up north isn't exactly dry (not hugely wet) as a front moves from north to south dumping rain in the watershed.. plus once they close the spillway... about 125,000 cfs of extra water will flow downstream ..at 16 feet the flow is 1,250,000 bfs at NOLA so the closing of the spillway will off set some any reduction of flow from up north to sum up: NOLA still at risk from storm surge going up river The Bonnet Carre Spillway will have to remain open longer than officials were hoping for as rainwater from once Hurricane Barry makes it’s way down the Mississippi River. Corps of Engineers spokesperson Ricky Boyett says before they can close the Spillway, the river must drop to 21 feet at the structure, but that’s just not happening… “Right now what we are really waiting on is for the rain to finish. As Barry moves up the valley, it’s putting more rain in the river and ultimately that rain has to come down to us.” 21 feet at the Spillway would put the river around 16 feet in New Orleans. Boyett says they aren’t concerned that the additional water will put any of the levee system in danger. “We’re not seeing a rise, what we’re seeing is an extended fall. It’s going to level out for about a week or so, and then we will start to see a slow fall.” https://kpel965.com/bonnet-carre-to-remain-open/
  2. janetjanet998

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    models drive a front into the gulf....got to watch the tail end this time of year euro shows hints of this
  3. janetjanet998

    Hurricane Barry

    due to the lack of/ delay of heavy rain...all hydrographs are busting high at this time...in eastern LA and SW MS it seems totals have been cut back too because of the lack of rain on "day 1" (yesterday) after landfall.. it is possible the heaviest rain may fall around Memphis ..because even after Barry passes NE in a couple of days..Barry's SW "front" tail gets hung up for another day or so Still think the major danger will be keeping the MS river high in NOLA for weeks deeper into the tropical season look for training in between the reds lines (aka watershed),, also, for example 3 inches over rain within 50 miles of memphis area will be much more water volume then 10 inches over SW MS because much of oit will miss the skinny watershed the area NE of the yellow line is the TN river watershed and anything falling in that area can be held at the Dams near the OH river (blue dot) also the flood control lakes in NW MS are well above normal and in some cases close to the spillway crest..so not much room to store the water for the Yazoo river basin
  4. janetjanet998

    Hurricane Barry

    another item of note: The Atchafalaya River at morgan City is at 8.68 feet (crest expected at 10 ft) the 3rd highest crest on record..the two higher ones are the years they opened the Morganza spillway on the MS river up north..they almost did that last month....good thing they didn't the water is high because some of the flooded MS river is still being diverted up north at another location (Old river) ) 10.53 ft on 05/28/1973 (2) 10.35 ft on 05/29/2011 3) 8.46 ft on 06/27/1957 (4) 8.29 ft on 03/15/2019 for reference here is the flood control plan for the MS river..again they dont want more then 1,250,000 at NOLA (16ft) for a long period of time
  5. janetjanet998

    Hurricane Barry

    hurricane Issac in 2012 took a similar path about the same strength as Barry and sent a 8 foot surge into NOLA river the difference was it formed before it moved into the SE gulf , Barry was a weak/moderate TS and had just formed and then moved out of the "sweet" spot were ESE winds back up the river on the east bank as far as future water coming down the MS river... it has been rather dry the past couple of weeks over the OH valley and midwest and the MS and OH rivers have been falling above Cario IL and along main stem south of that to the gulf again think of the river from New orleans to Cario as a straight line 30-50 miles wide...(.expect above pine bluff and the AR river))...it's skinny and even huge amounts of rainfall from Barry is not near as much as the very wet winter/spring.. large areas draining into the it from the OH, MO, and upper MS watersheds... long story short...unless its a prefect set up..Barry may cause a delay in the fall or perhaps slight to moderate rises if the bands train south to north just east of the river, but the crest will likely be below the multiple higher crests this spring.. That being said its it is likley the MS river in NOLA will be at 16 feet at least thru the rest of July so we may have a repeat later... notes: 1) the river forecast take into the 48 hour precip issued by the WPC, if that's off the river crest are off.. anything after that it doesn't count 2) It takes about 2 weeks for a crest to reach NOLA from memphis
  6. janetjanet998

    Hurricane Barry

    still scratching my head how they can be 2-3 ft off and almost a day late...unless it was for the reasons I mentioned earlier (need a Katrina track to funnel east and SE winds into the east bank) what if the levees are overtopped on the West Bank? (the levees are west of the towns on the river) That Parish evacuated everyone on the east bank and everyone on the West Bank south of a certain point....the West Bank is protected by levees from a SW and south surge...but if they didn't expected those to be overtopped why did the evacuate? And if they overtop from the south water will move up river too...
  7. janetjanet998

    Hurricane Barry

    over the city by far there is no watershed to drain into the river between Baton Rouge and NOLA ..anything that falls outside of the levees/channel runs off to other places... at 16 ft the flow at NOLA is an amazing 1,250,000 cfs.... the river has crested from the surge. according to reports just in.....taking into the massive amounts of rainfall the next 48 hours the river is expected to rise to only 17.1 from the current 16.72 if you read a few pages back I share some deals about the watershed upstream to the OH river
  8. janetjanet998

    Hurricane Barry

    Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 The overall satellite presentation of Barry has improved since this afternoon. The center is located closer to the main convective mass and there has been some expansion of the cirrus outflow. There has also been an increase in the convective banding over the eastern and southeastern portions of the circulation. Both NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft have been in the storm this evening. The NOAA aircraft found peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 64 kt in the southeastern quadrant, which still supports an initial intensity of 55 kt. Barry has been able to strengthen over the past day or so despite northerly shear and dry mid-level air. With the recent increase in convection near the center and the expansion of the upper-level outflow, it appears that the shear over the center has decreased. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for Barry to become a hurricane before it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Although this is slightly above the intensity guidance, most of the dynamical models show some modest deepening before landfall. After the center moves inland, steady weakening is expected and the system is predicted to become a remnant low in about 72 hours. Barry has been meandering over the past several hours, but the longer term motion is 300/3 kt. The storm is expected to turn northwestward overnight as a weakness develops in the subtropical ridge that extends over the southeastern United States. This should bring the center of the storm onshore along the south-central coast of Louisiana on Saturday. By Saturday night or early Sunday, Barry is forecast to turn northward around the western portion of the aforementioned ridge. Barry or its remnants should recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies by late Monday. Although the guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward again this cycle, the NHC track is virtually unchanged and is closest to the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models which lie along the eastern side of the scope.
  9. janetjanet998

    Hurricane Barry

    new projected height for the MS river at NOLA MUCH lower its falling now., 16.72 .,and now only has a peak of 17 ft.. I suspect the slightly more west track has an affect..as well as the fact that ESE winds back up the river more then south winds since there is some levee protection on the West Bank..so the surge is disconnected from the river.. .but they should have known that before they made the 20ft forecast..how can they be off by 3 feet for a storm forecast of around the same strength? Forecast Data (Issued 07-13-2019 01:11:00 UTC): |Date(UTC)| |Stage| 07/13 06:00 16.70ft 07/13 12:00 16.50ft 07/13 18:00 16.70ft 07/14 00:00 16.90ft 07/14 06:00 17.00ft 07/14 12:00 17.00ft 07/14 18:00 17.00ft 07/15 00:00 17.00ft 07/15 06:00 17.00ft 07/15 12:00 17.10ft 07/15 18:00 17.00ft 07/16 00:00 17.00ft 07/16 06:00 17.00ft 07/16 12:00 17.00ft 07/16 18:00 17.00ft 07/17 00:00 16.90ft 07/17 06:00 16.90ft
  10. janetjanet998

    Hurricane Barry

    the MS river gauge in NOLA coutinues to FALL the past 4-5 hours was projected to be at 17.4 at 00z, perhaps the storms is too far west and and ESE wind is best for a surge up rivers instead of the now due south although it's all odd all gauges in the channel are falling at the same time actual 07/12 23:00 16.85ft 07/12 22:00 16.89ft 07/12 21:00 16.90ft 07/12 20:00 16.92ft 07/12 19:00 16.93ft 07/12 18:00 16.92ft 07/12 17:00 16.84ft 07/12 16:00 16.78ft 07/12 15:00 16.74ft 07/12 14:00 16.67ft 07/12 13:00 16.62ft 07/12 12:00 16.57ft
  11. janetjanet998

    Hurricane Barry

    7:00 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 Location: 28.5°N 90.9°W Moving: WNW at 4 mph Min pressure: 993 mb Max sustained: 65 mph
  12. janetjanet998

    Hurricane Barry

    the rise of the mS river ar NOLA the past 3 hours has halted....low tide? I think Barry is really getting itself together and rather fast convection now wrapping around the east side
  13. janetjanet998

    Hurricane Barry

    Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Although the storm continues to look disorganized in satellite imagery, surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has fallen to 993 mb with the maximum winds still near 55 kt. A prominent cloud swirl has rotated more than halfway around the eastern and northern side of the mean center since 17Z, and there were several reports of strong winds in association with this feature. Strong convection persists to the south of the center, but to this point northerly shear has prevented the convection from becoming better organized. The initial motion is now an erratic 300/5. Barry should turn northwestward during the next several hours as it approaches a weakness in the mid-level ridge over the Mississippi Valley, and this motion should bring the center across the central coast of Louisiana between 12-24 h. After landfall, the system should move northward through a break in the ridge until the 72 h point, after which it should recurve northeastward into the westerlies. The guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward since the last advisory, but the shift is not large enough to require significant changes to the forecast track. Thus, the new track forecast again has only minor tweaks from the previous one, and it lies just east of the the various consensus models. Barry continues to strengthen despite the asymmetric convective structure, the shear, and the presence of mid- to upper-level dry air over the northern semicircle. The intensity guidance forecasts continued intensification until landfall, and so will the NHC forecast. While not explicitly shown in the forecast, Barry is expected to become a hurricane near the time it makes landfall between the 12 and 24 h forecasts points. After landfall, the cyclone should steadily weaken, with decay to a remnant low expected to occur in about 72 h and dissipation after 96 h.
  14. janetjanet998

    Hurricane Barry

    look at the banding increasing SE of NOLA and the cooling cloud tops out in the gulf to the south and now SW side I say 50-50 chance recon finds a Hurricane this mission
  15. janetjanet998

    Hurricane Barry

    or it could be one of several meso lows, each with their own local wind shifts, rotating around... another under the blob??? 1:00 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 Location: 28.4°N 90.6°W Moving: WNW at 5 mph Min pressure: 993 mb Max sustained: 65 mph
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