janetjanet998

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  1. MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0407 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1004 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA, EASTERN MO, SOUTHERN IL, WESTERN KY CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY VALID 301404Z - 302000Z SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV AND LLJ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL RATES TO 2"/HR ARE LIKELY, PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF RAIN, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 5" POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL WILL EXACERBATE AND PERSIST ONGOING FLASH FLOODING. DISCUSSION...GOES-16 IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS AN EXTENDED CLUSTER OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA TO AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THIS IS REPRESENTATIVE OF A REGION OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BENEATH IT, ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV NEAR THE IL/IA/MO BORDER, AS WELL AS ALONG THE NOSE OF A ROBUST LLJ ARCING FROM THE SW AT 30-40KTS. 12Z U/A SOUNDINGS INDICATED PWS OF 1.57" AT DVN AND 1.68" AT ILX, BOTH AT OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE, WITH GPS TPW OBSERVATIONS INDICATING PWS TO 1.8" LURKING JUST SW OF THE AREA. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AT ILX WERE MEASURED AT ALMOST 13,500 FT, AND A RIBBON OF MUCAPE OF GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG WAS ANALYZED BY THE RECENT RAP, WITH A MODEST WEST TO EAST INSTABILITY GRADIENT PRESENT ACROSS THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH-RES CAMS DIFFER AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON, THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A CONTINUATION OF THE BI-MODAL DISTRIBUTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MCV WHICH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NEARLY IN PLACE ACROSS SE IA. AS THIS SPINS, AN ENHANCED CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AND INTENSIFY TO ITS S/SW AS MODEST 850MB INFLOW SUPPLIES EXTREME INSTABILITY (MUCAPE RISING TO 3000 J/KG) AND ANOMALOUS PWS APPROACHING 2". WHILE SOME SUBTLE W/SW MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY, IT WILL BE SLOW TO DRIFT AS IT ENCOUNTERS WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST, SUGGESTING REGENERATION AND TRAINING/BACKBUILDING ALONG IT WITH LITTLE DISPLACEMENT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN AREA OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH RATES POTENTIALLY RISING TO 2"/HR OR MORE. MUCH OF THIS AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED MRMS ESTIMATED RAINFALL OF 2-4" WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN 6" IN THE LAST 12 HOURS, SO SOILS ARE PRE-SATURATED AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WOULD ENHANCE ONGOING FLASH FLOODING. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" OF RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS LOCALLY DOUBLE THAT IS LIKELY AS SHOWN BY THE RECENT HRRRV4, HRRRV3, AND ARW. FURTHER SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN IL AND INTO WESTERN KY, A SECONDARY MAXIMA IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ MORE IMPRESSIVELY DRIVES MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TRANSPORT. DEEPENING WARM CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO MUCAPE RISING TOWARDS 4000 J/KG AND PWS IN EXCESS OF 2" SUGGESTS RAIN RATES WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MAY EXCEED 2"/HR AS WELL. WHILE THERE EXISTS MORE UNCERTAINTY HERE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A LAG IN ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY, THE ROBUST LLJ AND EXTREME THERMODYNAMICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTN. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BACKBUILDING, AND WHERE EXCESSIVE RAIN RATES CAN TRAIN, AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 5" ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL PROLONG AND ENHANCE FLASH FLOODING. WEISS
  2. 12HRRR is just crazy for western IL/ NE MO...keep rains going almost nonstop(expect a couple hours maybe this afternoon) for the next 24 hours as the area gets caught in a WAA wing of a MCS overnight This over areas that have 4-8 inches already IF this correct 10-13 inch amounts possible
  3. 06z NAM didn't back off..... already 4-8 inches in the Quincy area MS river river was already at or near flood stage form there to just north of STL models have the whole stem from UIN to mouth of OH river dumped on
  4. NAM is a "tad" bullish with rainfall amounts in SW IL
  5. models develop an interesting little low over western IL the next 24 hours PW vales >2 and 500mb temps warming to -3 C on NAM
  6. another BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE 656 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 730 PM CDT. * AT 655 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MANHATTAN, OR 7 MILES WEST OF PEOTONE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
  7. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE 653 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN KANKAKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 730 PM CDT. * AT 652 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER KANKAKEE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO.
  8. 0331 PM TSTM WND GST ROSEMONT 41.99N 87.87W 06/09/2020 M74 MPH COOK IL MESONET
  9. 4 areas 1) "normal" banding with a tropical system to the north and east of the center 2) Mo Valley late this afternoon 3) late evening overnight IL/IN 4) MI/OH tomorrow
  10. new thread to focus on Tornadoes, including MO river valley out west
  11. very odd set up with the Tropical system and then a strong system for June DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2020 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY... ..SUMMARY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSOURI VALLEY. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. ..CENTRAL PLAINS/MISSOURI VALLEY HAVE UPGRADED PARTS OF THE REGION FOR A FOCUSED SEVERE RISK THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MAXIMIZED GENERALLY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS BORDER VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG THE COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND REACH EASTERN KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY EVENING. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL PRECEDE THIS UPPER TROUGH, ALONG WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET, WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING FRONT/SURFACE LOW. IN PARTICULAR, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG BUOYANCY ARCING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA, WHICH WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FEATURE MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST THINKING IS SCATTERED SUPERCELLS SHOULD FIRST DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW, WITHIN THE FOCUSED EXIT REGION OF THE 80KT+ MID-LEVEL JET. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY AROUND 19-20Z AND THEN SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER REGION. A FEW INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED. WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO RISK ASIDE FROM VERY LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY TEND TO CLUSTER AND BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE ADVANCING FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, BUT A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND AND SOME TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING FROM FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA/NORTHWEST MISSOURI. ..MIDWEST/LOWER OHIO VALLEY/MID-SOUTH A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CRISTOBAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE TOWARD ILLINOIS/INDIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (LOW 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS) ALSO DEVELOPING NORTHWARD, DRY SLOT-RELATED CLOUD BREAKS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING INHIBITION AND MODERATE BUOYANCY BY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL INDIANA. THE NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD-EXPANDING CORE OF STRONGEST LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO RESIDE WITHIN THIS SAME CORRIDOR, INCLUDING AN INCREASING MID-LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD BOOST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT LONGER DURATION/SEMI-DISCRETE UPDRAFT ROTATION. A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION, ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM-RELATED WIND DAMAGE. PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS (ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF) INTO INDIANA WILL BE REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO-RELATED RISK UPGRADE (10% ENHANCED). FARTHER NORTH, A TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/BRIEF TORNADO RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR NORTH AS EASTERN IOWA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING.
  12. such a bizarre set up I wont know where to begin.. is there like another warm front with mid 70 dewpoints surging north versus "only" 70-72 more north with a dryline surge (over Mo) with slightly improving lapse rates moving in behind Cristobal?
  13. 12Z NAM and clones have another small area of interest over NE IL WEDS afternoon this is missing on GFS
  14. ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 713 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN LAMOURE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA... NORTHWESTERN DICKEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA... NORTHEASTERN MCINTOSH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA... * UNTIL 800 PM CDT. * AT 713 PM CDT, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KULM, OR 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF ASHLEY, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!