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About MattPetrulli

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    Sevierville, TN

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  1. From NWS Morristown The upper ridge and surface high pressure will shift to our east by Monday. Models are still struggling with the details of the complex system that evolves to our west, with the GFS often showing less phasing of the southern stream and northern stream energy, while the Euro has been more on board with the two systems getting in phase and a more vigorous surface low developing. While there is still considerable spread, there is also quite a bit of support among the ensemble members for the stronger solution, and confidence is nudging upward for the possibilty of a significant mountain wave event mainly Monday night into Tuesday as a surface low likely tracks by to our west and northwest and 850 mb flow likely approaches or exceeds 50kt across the mountains from the S and/or SE. Given the ongoing serious drought and the most likely scenario of the rain holding off for at least the first part of the potential high winds, there remains a threat of a period of increased fire danger mainly along and just to the west of the E TN mountains. The wind threat and fire danger threat will continue to be highlighted in the HWO.
  2. Winds won't be as strong as Gatlinburg, LLJ probably won't be strong enough. However, it may be on the same level as the Wears Valley fires in 2022. To make things worse, we were not in a drought for the Wears Valley fires, while as we are in a severe drought this time around Then vs now. That being said, a saving grace could be a large precip shield ahead of whatever cold front convection comes through. That may help temper the fire threat a lot. However, if the precip shield does not come through during the day, Monday night-Tuesday will be very scary.
  3. 1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form in the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system while it meanders in the Caribbean Sea through the latter part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
  4. ...ELEVATED FIRE RISK WEDNESDAY DUE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... Ongoing drought conditions, combined with breezy southerly winds and low relative humidity values will lead to an elevated fire risk on Wednesday, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Relative humidity values will drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s, but the bigger concern will be with respect to winds. By the afternoon, winds will be sustained at 10 to 20 mph at a minimum with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible. Winds will be strongest in the higher elevations. A bit nervous about tomorrow in my area. Hopefully won't have a fire pop up, but tomorrow is probably the most favorable fire day since the Wears Valley fires.
  5. Disturbance in Caribbean 30/70 chance of development
  6. A nightmare scenario is unfolding for southern Mexico this evening with rapidly intensifying Otis approaching the coastline. Satellite images show that Otis has continued to intensify, with Dvorak Data-T estimates between 130-145 kt during the past few hours. The initial wind speed is set to 140 kt as a blend of these values, making Otis a Category 5 hurricane. Otis has explosively intensified 95 kt during the past 24 hours, a mark only exceeded in modern times by Patricia in 2015. Otis should maintain category 5 status before the hurricane makes landfall near the Acapulco area overnight or early on Wednesday. The only significant change to mention to the track forecast is that it has been shifted to the right due to a recent wobble to the east and the latest model trends, and a general north-northwest motion at about 8 kt is anticipated through landfall. Rapid weakening is anticipated after landfall, and Otis should dissipate tomorrow night over the higher terrain of Mexico. This is an extremely serious situation for the Acapulco metropolitan area with the core of the destructive hurricane likely to come near or over that large city early on Wednesday. There are no hurricanes on record even close to this intensity for this part of Mexico.
  7. Here's what makes me a little more concerned. While we were in an exceptional drought in 2016, we were not experiencing drought conditions when the Wears Valley fires occurred. Shows that wind is truly the biggest factor, but drought beginning at this time is just fuel to the fire no pun intended. Glad I moved out of Pigeon Forge into an area of Sevierville that isn't near the main mountains.
  8. Really am not a fan of entering a drought at the beginning of Fall. If drought continues to increase, gonna become more and more increasingly concerned when we start getting mountain wave events for fires.
  9. At what point does a FFE get issued? At least from HRRR and radar, probably another 2-4" to go at the least with many many reports of flash flooding on social media.
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