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About MattPetrulli

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  • Location:
    Pigeon Forge, TN
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    Mets,Jets, Lakers, and Islanders fan.

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  1. GFS backed off on the AEW in the Atlantic, but 18z picked up again with a nice system coming out of it. Plenty of time to watch this as it evolves.
  2. I can see a 50-60 MPH storm before landfall. Still got time over water.
  3. KGRY buoy has sustained winds at 52 MPH.
  4. Right now it's standing at 30/80. Models diverge from a Mexico landfall to a FL landfall for a weak but wet tropical storm.
  5. Long but juicy discussion from NWS Cheyenne ...Widespread Severe Weather Outbreak Likely on Monday...Including Potential for Several Tornadoes...Very Large Hail...and Damaging Winds... Our attention then shifts to what very well could be one of the most significant severe weather episodes we have seen in recent years for southeast WY and the western NE Panhandle. Models have been in great agreement over the last several days w/ a significant upper low over the Great Basin/Intermountain West at 00z Tuesday. The net result is impressive upper-level difluence over the entire area along with sfc cyclogenesis over northern CO. This 992 mb low then proceeds to lift NNE across southeast WY and western NE through the day, which should be a classic track for a potential tornado event. Thunderstorms will become numerous along/e of the Laramie Range by 00z with the help of low-level upslope, excellent convergence along w/steadily increasing large scale ascent. Biggest remaining question is storm mode as some models have trended toward a weak, almost negligable cap with no CIN to be had which could be messy with too much forcing. However, GFS & NAM soundings both show at least a shallow low-level inversion at 5k feet AGL or so which could promote discrete cells early. It also may help that the stronger dynamic support does not arrive until late in the afternoon which could keep early storms from merging too quickly and limiting storm intensity to some degree. By mid/late evening, we expect storms to merge into one or more clusters across east central WY or the northern NE Panhandle. This convection, especially if discrete, will be associated w/a high threat for severe weather. Steep mid-level lapse rates, coupled with strong surface heating is expected to yield a moderately to strongly unstable air mass characterized by MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg. Impressive forecast soundings remain with 0-6 km shear over 50 knots across all of our high plains zones. Very large, curved, and even a few sickle- like hodographs are common along/n of the warm front between 00z-03z as the low-level jet rapidly strengthens with 50 knot flow at 850 mb and resulting 0-1 km/effective SRH over 400 m2/s2. This will support intense supercells with low-level mesocyclones, likely being capable of all facets of severe weather including tornadoes, extremely large and damaging hail, flash flooding, and destructive winds. Any storms which can become rooted in the boundary layer by evening will almost certainly have the potential to produce a strong/violent, long-track tornado given 0-1 km EHI of 2-4. SREF and NCAR Ensembles suggest STP values of 3+ as well, which is impressive. Dew points in the 60s may help promote low LCLs under 1000 meters, perhaps under 500 meters in the early evening. Expect this to support a threat for tornadoes, as long as the storm mode can at least stay quasi-discrete.
  6. All major models now hinting development in the Gulf of Mexico. I'll probably make a thread on this once it gets closer and an invest area is created.
  7. GFS and its ensembles, CMC, and Euro all develop a system in the western Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico next week. Been run to run consistency for the GFS now for about 3-4 days.
  8. A couple of areas to watch in the next few weeks as models have been hinting at something in the GOM by mid month and the wave train getting going pretty early into the season.
  9. June: 1/0/0 July: 2/1/0 August: 4/2/1 September: 5/2/1 October:2/1/0 November: 0/0/0 14/6/2 Edit: Forgot Arlene 15/6/2
  10. Might be a nice little sleeper day along that OFB in Texas..
  11. Radar is kinda confusing on both FDR and TLX.
  12. Ah yes the classic Midnight PDS warning ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND SOUTHWESTERN CARTER COUNTIES... At 1128 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Ringling, moving east at 20 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters have confirmed a tornado crossing highway 70 north of Ringling. Take cover now!
  13. Yeah big camping area here. Usually when complexes like these move through they weaken but still pack a punch. This didn't weakened but rather strengthened as it moved into Smoky Mountain National Park and my area. A lot of people in town too. Plus some of the trees are still weak from the fires we had back in November.
  14. One of the more intense derechoes here in Pigeon Forge, TN. Power went out ahead of the storm, rain wasn't too heavy but the wind easily exceeded 50-60 MPH. Probably some damage, will check in the morning. Power was out city wide. Hasn't been this dark in a long time. Edit: Seeing extensive damage reported around the general area.
  15. Impressive cell near Nowata, OK.