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About MattPetrulli

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  • Location:
    Pigeon Forge, TN
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    Mets,Jets, Lakers, and Islanders fan.

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  1. Oh sorry I didn't see that.
  2. This is a thread for Atlantic Hurricane Season predictions. I'll go with an average to slightly above average season at 14/6/2.
  3. Some decent parameters tomorrow, biggest issues besides morning convection is storm mode. However, if a discrete cell can get going and absorb any OFB from the morning MCS, we're in business. Reminds me a little bit of 5/20/13 ingredient wise and spatial wise.
  4. Some of it was overdone, it considered that March event in Illinois last year a high risk worthy event with about 9-10 tornadoes, 1 or 2 of which were strong.
  5. I look at risks as wording. Not a lot of people look at SPC risks as probabilities, but rather if there will be an outbreak and how significant will it be.
  6. The KS warm front cells will make up for a majority of the tornado count. A lot of brief touchdowns.
  7. Probability wise, yes. But a 10% or a 15% would have verified too.
  8. Honestly, the upgrade to a high risk at 06z was a little irresponsible. Broyles should have kept it at a 15% where there were obvious concerns for messiness. Instead, we were stuck with a situation where a downgrade to the high risk at 13z then another upgrade at 1630z or 20z if warranted would have been confusing to the public. Didn't think it was going to verify from the start of the day, as messiness was becoming more evident.
  9. That's my mistake, didn't know he came on multiple severe forums to say so. Nothing impressive right now, just storm interactions and discrete cells with no impressive elements. That's my reason for calling a under verified high risk/bust.
  10. Any specifics on what he called a bust on?
  11. Some users who were sand blasting zinski1990 for calling a bust should apologize. Today was obviously a high risk bust, a 10% woulda verified or maybe a 15%. Those of you who called him a moron and requested him to be banned should apologize.
  12. Half mile wide wedge.
  13. https://twitter.com/spotternetwork/status/865317440166744067
  14. SPC really needs to start following this risk guidelines with probabilities. Like there shouldn't be a non-PDS for a high risk for a 50/30 for a 5% tornado risk.
  15. Yeah I take that back, nice airmass coming in. Just checking 00z NAM its initialization is close to actual, off by maybe 1 or 2 degrees. I take back moisture concern, but still concerned about convective evolution.