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About MattPetrulli

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Pigeon Forge, TN

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  1. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Looking to tomorrow SREF likes tomorrow pretty well in IA/MO CAMS 12z suite is pretty consistent on developing multiple discrete supercells
  2. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    OKC currently under the gun with 3 supercells heading in general direction... Conditions only improve the more east you go.
  3. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Would start with either a large 5% or a 10% unhatched in west central OK to start the day and adjust as needed. CAMs and NAM paints that area best for supercells, could be a decent nocturnal threat too in Central and eastern OK. Still lots of uncertainties and will probably depend on HRRR and the CAM's 12z suite for tornado potential since they preformed pretty well today.
  4. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Bennington 3.0 in progress, has a debris sig too.
  5. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    I'd say May 6 2015 imo
  6. Apr 15 2018 severe weather thread

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 151515Z - 151715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to undergo a gradual increase in organization and intensity through mid day and persist into the afternoon over the western through central Carolinas. Line segments with embedded bows/mesovortices and some supercell structures are expected with damaging wind and a few tornadoes the main threats. A tornado watch will likely be needed before 17Z. DISCUSSION...Late this morning a line of storms from the western Carolinas into southeast GA is moving northeast. An inflection is apparent in the line over east central GA in proximity to a northeast-advancing MCV. Downstream the warm sector continues to moisten with advection of upper 60s F dewpoints. The modest theta-e advection and a few cloud breaks will contribute to further destabilization. However, weak mid-level lapse rates will limit MLCAPE to generally 500-1000 J/kg. A gradual intensification of storms is expected as surface temperatures warm through the mid 70s. Strengthening low to mid-level winds associated with the MCV and northeast-ejecting upper trough will result in strong unidirectional shear and sufficiently large 0-1 km hodographs for a few low-level mesocyclones. Overall eastward speed of the lines will be tempered by the deep layer winds being largely parallel to the initiating boundaries. However, embedded bowing segments and mesovortices moving more rapidly northeast will pose a risk for damaging wind and a few tornadoes.
  7. While you're all arguing about this being a 5% day and someone making a fair comparison, fort smith cell is wrapping up really quick.
  8. LZK doesn't even mention the word tornado in their afd Factors will be coming together, strong lift, instability and surging moisture to bring the potential for severe storms to the area. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, while some shear will be present. SPC does have much of AR in an Enhanced or Slight risk of severe storms. Model CAPE values do reach over 1000, LI values reach -3 to -5, and precip water values reach 1.5 to near 2 inches. Jet dynamics will be strong with a low level jet around 50 knots. The main surge of convection appears in the west in the early evening, then moving through AR through midnight in Friday morning. Also, some heavy rain will be possible, with amounts of 3 to 5 inches in the southeast the highest, while 1 to 3 over most of central AR. Localized flooding will be possible.
  9. 3/19/18 Dixie Alley severe outbreak

    Moderate coming at 1630z, SPC MD mentions potential for strong, long lived, and damaging tornadoes.
  10. 3/19/18 Dixie Alley severe outbreak

    Clearing evident on visible satellite, 1k MUCAPE on Bmx's sounding at 12z.
  11. 3/19/18 Dixie Alley severe outbreak

    Yep the 18z NAM goes nuclear on AL. Multiple other models also showing lines of super cells. Tomorrow will probably be a dangerous day for North/Central AL.
  12. 2/28 Severe Risk

    SPC has a day 4 outlook out for the Arklatex area. Here's a highlight from SPC discussion This feature along with a low-level jet in the Arklatex is forecast to create favorable shear profiles for organized severe storms including supercells and fast moving line-segments. A few tornadoes and some wind damage will be possible
  13. January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Obs

    2-3 inches here. Moderate snow continues.
  14. January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event

    Just was a really light mist for about 10 minutes until a switch to snow now.
  15. January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Obs

    KOQT (Oak Ridge) reporting heavy snow.