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MattPetrulli

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About MattPetrulli

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  1. My god what a monster.
  2. Ramping up quick south of Bloomington and a tornado warning is imminent
  3. * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Madison County in central Indiana... Northern Delaware County in east central Indiana... * Until 130 PM EST * At 104 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Fairmount, moving northeast at 35 mph.
  4. Broad rotation on cell SW of Bloomington, IN. Cell is moving in general direction of Bloomington. Will need to watch.
  5. What a technical and in deph discussion by SPC. *Sarcasm* ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley east-northeastward into the lower Great Lakes this afternoon into tonight. ...IN/OH/PA... Have expanded the EHH risk area eastward to include more of central and eastern OH. Trends in surface observations and satellite imagery suggest destabilization will continue over this region, with 12z CAM solutions indicating robust thunderstorm development through the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings show substantial low level wind speeds and vertical shear, promoting a squall line with embedded bowing/rotating storms capable of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Large hail may also occur in any supercells that can become established. The threat should slowly diminish as the storms move into a progressively more stable air mass over western PA. ...IL/IN... Another area of intense thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along the primary cold front sagging into parts of MO/IL. Most model guidance suggests development will begin near the STL area and spread eastward across parts of southern IL into central and southern IN. Thermodynamic parameters will be stronger in this area compared to farther northeast, promoting a greater risk of large (possibly very large) hail. Model guidance along suggests a slightly higher probability of discrete supercells in this area, with a few tornadoes expected. Eventually, these storms will also congeal into a squall line as they build southeastward toward the OH river.
  6. Still a few hours room for improvement too. Banding intensity DBZ has also increased.
  7. NHC also has raised surge estimates a little bit. Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...7 to 11 ft Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay...6 to 9 ft Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to 6 ft Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft
  8. NHC now expecting 105 MPH at landfall. Winds up to 90 MPH at 11 AM FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 26.6N 88.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 29.1N 89.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 32.1N 88.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0000Z 35.7N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/1200Z 39.2N 80.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/1200Z 44.5N 67.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  9. I can see a strong cat 1 or cat 2 at landfall. Thinking an impact maybe similar to Hurricane Erin (1995) on the Gulf Coast. Practically same size and strength at landfall, based off my predictions.
  10. Highest elevation is 1,165 ft.
  11. TWC seriously sent a reporter to San Juan, PR. Also one of their better reporters, Paul Goodloe. Dumb move by TWC.
  12. 909 MB/175 MPH
  13. Question is. Is it remotely possible we get to 890s?....
  14. Don't compare earthquake damage to a category 5 hurricane damage. This is a pretty small storm, but it will be enough to bring potentially massive damage to the PR. Interaction with the mountains of won't do it in time to help San Juan significantly. I don't think you can really over hype a powerful category 5 hurricane heading into a small, but heavily populated island with mountains. Not to mention the economic struggles they have been having lately. Please don't post such irresponsible and blasphemous assumptions.
  15. Wayyy too early to make any calls on OTS or LF currently.