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Everything posted by MattPetrulli

  1. Going off 2 AM motion, should expect landfall around 3:30 AM or before. Also formed quite a large CDO despite dry air
  2. ...2 AM EST POSITION UPDATE OF NICOLE... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE AS NICOLE NEARS THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... NOAA buoy 41009, located about 25 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a wind gust to 65 mph (104 km/h). A weather station at Patrick Air Force Base recently reported a sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h) with a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h). A NOAA tide gauge at Fernandina Beach, Florida observed a water level of 4.5 feet above Mean Higher High Water. SUMMARY OF 200 AM EST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 80.1W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
  3. Hurricane Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 1200 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 ...12 AM EST POSITION UPDATE OF NICOLE... ...NICOLE BRINGING STRONG WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINS AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... A weather station at Sebastian Inlet, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) with a wind gust of 66 mph (106 km/h). A WeatherSTEM station near Stuart Beach, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 79.6W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
  4. Believe its the first US station, but Vero Beach is at 39/52 first official tropical storm condition verified station.
  5. Eyewall seems open to the south, will probably fill in with frictional convergence eventually though. Thought 80-85 MPH would be easily obtained but LF intensity may end up being just 60-65 knots
  6. A little temperature increase when going over the center, maybe an attempt to form an inner core despite the mid satellite presentation. .
  7. Seems like NHC satellite estimates were very close if not right on the money
  8. 12z Euro alluded to this also. I don't think we'll get anything too significant considering incoming trough may force it south and/or impose shear and dry air, but it's worth watching.
  9. GEFS inconsistency takes years off my life That being said if something goes down in Caribbean as others have stated I think it's more of a Central America threat but our models stink so anything is possible.
  10. Yeah, I am having trouble believing the hundreds of bodies things. Usually USA hurricanes don't really directly kill 100+ people, obviously Katrina and Maria exceptions. A lot of the deaths occur afterwards. For example, Ike and Harvey which impacted the extremely populated Houston area had about 68 direct and 18 direct deaths. Other modern hurricanes like Ida, Michael, Sandy, Irma which were catastrophic in their own rights and did an extreme amount of damage all had "only" 50-100 direct deaths. These are all sourced from Wikipedia and I haven't done any digging of my own but if those numbers are false, it likely isn't much higher than reported. 50-100 is a lot of fatalities don't get me wrong but it's just proving to the point of Ian. Ian killing "hundreds" directly in today's modern era would be a very hard thing to do. Chances are, those reports are exaggerated. However, it would be arrogant of me to assume it's 100% false as I have seen those hundreds of deaths reports on social media. There were also multiple chasers reporting seeing fatalities on their own. I would still lean it being exaggerated but it's an unsettling amount of people that are saying its hundreds of fatalities.
  11. Large amount of wind damage reports coming in far inland.
  12. Just saw this too A WeatherFlow station at Morris Island Lighthouse recently reported sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) with a gust to 82 mph
  13. At first thought winds were unimpressive vs yesterday with the wind field. However, a lot of damage reports are coming in and North Charleston is sustained at 51 gusting to 68.
  14. Surprised there isn't a FFW for actual downtown Charleston. There's one for the areas surrounding it, radar estimates and actual reports are borderline FFE material.
  15. Dry dewpoints seems to be leading to convection wanning and being weak when it reaches land. Should change through the night, however
  16. ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IAN A LITTLE STRONGER... Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Ian's maximum winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1115 PM EDT...0315 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 79.3W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
  17. More 70-75 knot SFMRs recorded in the NW quadrant. Organization definitely increasing on radar with an eyewall feature, at least temporarily, developing and becoming more defined on radar. Cold top also firing near the center coinciding with developing eyewall like feature
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