MattPetrulli

983.7 extr last pass

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 930 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...BERYL STRENGTHENS BACK TO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... Data from the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Beryl has strengthened to a category 3 hurricane with maximum winds of 115 mph (185 km/h). The aircraft data also indicated that the minimum pressure has fallen to 962 mb. The next forecast will be issued at the normally scheduled time at 11 PM EDT (0300 UTC). SUMMARY OF 930 PM AST...0130 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 85.1W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

158 knot unflagged SFMR

Wow. Blend supports 155 knot+

Yikes

I like 4/2's potential a lot. Potential is there for a substantial event.

Went outside, got a thin glaze of ice on the car. Probably will keep me home tomorrow. Pretty impressed with how widespread the freezing rain is.

All the METARs in the region are at 32 or lower. This makes me think this is a big batch of freezing rain. w

06z HRRR really bumped up the ice accumulation.

MRX updated their snow map I actually think they're being too aggressive, at least for Sevier County.

Once again Euro vs GFS. GFS is kind of the outlier here, only model in its camp is the ICON. The rest are just a slushy mix for most of the valley.

Still a mix here. One of the most disappointing forecast busts, if not the most I have ever experienced.

I hope this band coming in gives an inch or 2

Heavy snow in Sevierville finally. Maybe too little too late though.

No power and a cold rain in Sevierville .

We’ve run into a massive problem in Sevier County.. mixing. HRRR has us being stuck in a mix all day. While it looks like it’s snowing hard on radar here, it’s not. This is extremely disappointing and frustrating if it ends up winning out. .

Still a bit worried about the warm nose, but if that isn't a problem, I can see Sevier County overperforming. Especially given the HRRR dry bias.

Well, the warm nose has made a reappearance.

Lol am I being trolled? EDIT: Showcasing HRRR dry bias

Really excited about these rates. Hopefully can exceed an inch+ an hour.

TYS reporting moderate snow with this band, first real band about to come through.

Classic HRRR dry bias .

All 00z models including CAMS paste the Valley. Nam family is on an island. Becoming more and more optimistic for a good snow event

OHX and MRX going conservative on snow totals