MattPetrulli

Kind of a skeletal look due to the dry air, and I think this is temporary, but this is the most organized we've seen the COC. I think it's temporary organization but it's reasonable, for the moment, it's at 75 MPH.

Norfolk Airport, over 250 miles+ away, is sustained at 40 MPH gusting to 53 MPH. Impressive wind field and on ground verification. Even Wallops Island, Delaware is sustained at 36 gusting to 51.

All in MPH Piney Island, NC 33/55 Chery Point, NC 29/47 Beaufort 23/41 Cape Hatteras 22/43 Pretty good gusts considering COC is still 12 hours out from LF.

The limiting factor here isn't really SSTs. Don't listen to certain unproductive posters on here crap on it because of that. The real limiting factor is dry air. The 12z hurricane models all have a skeletal type of hurricane, devoid of convection on the right side mainly, making landfall. This already can be seen in the current radar appearance, struggling with some convection on the east side. That being said it's constructing a legit core and I am really interested of where this goes over next several hours. I think 60-70 knots at landfall.

Beaufort is gusting to 41, Piney island gusting to 43

NHC's 11 AM discussion confirmed what I was thinking. Not exactly a core maybe, but low level center reformation in the convection. while surface analyses indicate there is still a front in close proximity to the low, deep convection has become more concentrated to the north of the center. In fact, GOES-16 1-min visible imagery suggests the low-level center is re-forming closer to the convection.

Which ones are already at sustained TS conditions? I aint denying it, I am just wondering where to find these stations. Also I posted in another thread but thought I would post here aswell, but maybe the beginning workings of a core? Here it is KLTX Kinda intrigued by the curve look. However, from satellite it seems the circulation is displaced to the south of this, so I am unsure. Thoughts would be appreciated

Curious of this feature being the potential development of a core. It looks like that on radar, however from satellite it seems the circulation may be displaced to the south. Am wondering of other's thoughts on this.

When does recon go in?

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) to the north of the center.

https://x.com/yconsor/status/1704927459810955461?s=46&t=FgOwSPUMVjK4yJ_POHuqkA

HWRF gets it down to 982, but winds don't really correspond. Maybe due to land interactions. EDIT: It gets it to 60 knots before weakening wind wise, which I think may be a wind resolution issue.

HAFS B and A bring a 55-60 knot TS into NC.

18z euro takes a step towards GFS

The disasterous was in reference to the hypothetical, not the actual scenario. .

Further organization=stronger system which is a huge unlikely hypothetical. That's def a larger area of gale force winds than your usual TC. Think Nicole last year. EDIT: For the record I think the realistic ceiling is a mid-strong tropical storm. I don't see a problem with what I said and don't understand the weenie emotes. I am just pointing out it's gonna have a big wind field.

Look at that wind field. Good thing the ceiling for this is only a low-end category 1 (if even), any further organization would be disastrous due to the large wind field.

12z GFS

12z Also interaction with high pressure to the north may lead to a tight gradient and creating a larger wind field than normal. I think there's enough here to put out a spot at 8 PM.

Our next system to watch

Accidentally posted in another thread but NOAA buoy 41048 located about 160 miles (260 km) northwest of the center of Lee has recently reported a peak one-minute sustained wind of 51 mph (83 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h).

Way west, in EPS we trust

Thing is, even if its a NS landfall, it's pretty obvious this can end up being just as significant if not worse for the USA, given the lack of a compact core by then.

I don't think LF should focused upon as much as it should be for compact systems. It can landfall in NS and still be some pretty significant impacts for NE. Especially since there probably won't be a definite wind max at that stage and convection will primarily be focused to the west and NW.

Tried to take a general picture to best show it, but this is the induation map for a category 1 hurricane worst case scenario surge. Lots of orange/red even for a cat 1.