MattPetrulli

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IAN A LITTLE STRONGER... Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Ian's maximum winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1115 PM EDT...0315 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 79.3W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

More 70-75 knot SFMRs recorded in the NW quadrant. Organization definitely increasing on radar with an eyewall feature, at least temporarily, developing and becoming more defined on radar. Cold top also firing near the center coinciding with developing eyewall like feature

80 MPH and 986 at 11 PM. 85 MPH peak forecast now.

Odd reads from recon SFMR continues to be higher than FL and around hurricane force, south of the circulation and no convection. Almost sting jet like. Also a really broad pressure gradient.

Nevermind about the eyewall part, center seems to be to the east of that feature. Point still stands about 80-85 knot peak potentially though.

Assuming this is the center (think it is given the coordinates provided on 8 PM advisory) then Ian is trying to construct an eyewall again. If recent SFMRs are correct which support a strength of 70-75 knots, I think a peak intensity of 80-85 knot isn't totally out of the question, especially if this really is an eyewall being constructed. Also, there is a wide area of 45-50 knot+ winds on the east side of the circulation with relatively no convection. Pretty impressive imo.

Strangely enough, best track for 00z has it at 70 knots

NHC keeps it at 65 knots at 8 PM, assuming it's because of flight level winds not higher than the SFMRs.

Rather large area of hurricane force winds, NHC nailed the pressure at least it seems

75 knot SFMR too. That was found to the NW of the center so curious what's in that intense northern band.

65 knot SFMR, which confirms NHC's upgrade to a hurricane earlier

Saw this too. Does not appear the LLC is moving with a northerly component at all on radar. Very weird

The overall Carolina threat as a whole going under the radar, obviously we know why. That being said, this may not be the run of the mill category 1 for SC/NC. Large size could inflict significant wind damage/surge in some areas

Still a warm core, as long as it stays a warm core it'll be a tropical cyclone.

Agreed with the sentiment expressed earlier by @GaWx, feel like a more east landfall is the way. Also those rain bands just offshore north of the center seem really nasty and probably have a broad field of 50 knot+ winds.

According to best track, Ian is back at hurricane status

Looks like convection is, temporarily at least, trying to wrap fully around the circulation

Looking like it's jogging a little more east on radar too. As it has for its entire life cycle, the trend on globals has been east too. Starting to think we can peak at 70-75 knots with more east jogs.

I feel like a lot of this region will receive Hurricane Matthew esque impacts if not worse.

Hurricane warnings out for SC coast. 4-7 feet of surge for there too.

Parts of NE Florida have been in tropical storm conditions since the evening last night. Think the damage up there will be more than we anticipated. Reminds me of Matthew's NE Florida impacts.

This thing is chugging right along, faster than I expected for the moment. Florida east coast may sustain damage similar to Hurricane Matthew, judging by extent of TS force wind field. .