MattPetrulli

Band setting up down south may do the dirty work with pushing in the surge and delivering TS-hurricane conditions outside of the inner eyewall. Setting up at a bad angle too

...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION THIS MORNING... ...6 AM POSITION UPDATE... Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Idalia has maximum sustained winds of 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum pressure indicated by Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 942 mb (27.82 inches). Within the past hour, a C-MAN station on Cedar Key measured sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h), with a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h), and a Weatherflow station at Apalachee Bay measured a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h), with a gust to 51 mph (83 km/h). SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 83.9W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...27 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

Expected a lot more on land at least, especially since we're so close to the eyewall.

Frictional convergence helping it a bit. Seeing towers go up on IR too. Windfield is massively unimpressive I am surprised at the lack of tropical storm condition reports.

And just like that it's closed off again lol

Likely because of VHT. The NW eyewall one is nasty. EDIT: Actually probably a little weakening. Eyewall is looking less defined on radar.

Still have several hours until landfall too. I don't understand why a storm can't jump 5 MPH in that timeframe. Anyways Cedar Key was shown on TWC and it is getting quite intense waves/surge wise.

It was open for about 20 minutes, its just the main shield itself east of the eyewall is a tad lethargic atm

Dry air may be affecting the east side of the storm a bit, more squally than focused CDO atm. Also may have contributed to eyewall possibly opening up.

Extreme Ida deju vu

The very quick intensification of the eyewall over past hour has been remarkable. Some of the towers are pushing 60kft

Presentation has become extremely impressive really quick. Reminds me of Ida's presentation. I am thinking 120-125 knots at landfall.

Moat just filled in and inner eyewall is intensifying, so you're probably right.

Thinking we got an EWRC going on

What else would it be then?

Intensification rate reminds me a bit of Ida. Ida was sluggish, only gradually intensifying until the evening then really started to ramp up. It quickly blew up to high-end category 4 status in only a few hours. That is why I am not ruling out a similar intensification rate given we still have about 12 hours remaining.

It's usually whenever circulation is in good view of the radar, like it is now. I'm sort of surprised they haven't begun those kind of updates.

Could be faulty radar data, but northern eyewall may have temporarily opened up. Towers firing on the southern eyewall will probably fix this issue. BTW, BYX, and IR all show some sort of weakness in the northern eyewall. That being said, the VHTs on the southern eyewall are cranking and this will probably be solved quickly.

Nah that initialization is pretty fine. It isn't gonna be perfect but that is definitely a good initialization.

If it is or isn't, it initializes about 6 mb too high

11 am stays at TD. I don’t like criticizing the pros much but I do not understand at all why this hasn’t been upgraded. Pressure and SFMR are in full support. .

Something of note, this region doesn't get significant hurricane hits often at all (big bend area of FL). That being said, one of the last direct big hits was Hurricane Hermine which landfalled at 80 MPH as a slightly above averaged size storm. It produced a damaging 6-9 ft surge in that region and was locally quite destructive. It's likely we get >80 MPH at landfall if this were to landfall in the same region. Also may be the same size if not a little bigger than Hermine. That would be a much higher surge than what Hermine did in a very surge suspectable region. Also, this area is the most impoverished part of Florida. As a result, the building codes are some of the weakest in the state. Yes, this is a somewhat sparsely populated area compared to other places in FL, but its a much weaker area in general. So it's a bit of a concerning pick your poison scenario.

Oh

It's diurnal minimum, it isn't surprising or anything. Not saying you guys are saying it's surprising, I'm just stating that fact.

Can definitely change, but I think at the moment we’re looking at a 2016 Hurricane Hermine type storm, however this may end up being 5-10 mph stronger. I think that’s the most likely bet at the moment, not the ceiling or the floor however. .