Right as I post this
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for severe may be increasing across portions of
central Kansas into south-central Nebraska. Initial discrete modes
are expected, with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated
tornadoes possible. Later in the evening, storms approaching from
the west (in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 0265) may also pose a severe
threat. The issuance of a WW is likely.
DISCUSSION...Convective initiation has been noted along the
Trego/Ellis County Kansas line within the last few minutes. Some
deep-layer ascent appears to be glancing the area, with a small
mid-level perturbation ejecting into the central Plains from
Colorado, overspreading the dryline, where some low-level
convergence is present.
The ambient environment may be characterized by moderate to strong
instability (with up to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE noted in northern Kansas),
and strong deep-layer shear (effective bulk shear of 50-70 knots).
Any storm that can mature and sustain itself in this environment may
become supercellular. Given the recent increase of effective SRH to
200-300 m2/s2 associated with a strengthening low level jet (with
enlarged, curved hodographs depicted by RAP forecast soundings),
storms may also acquire strong low-level rotation, especially if a
discrete mode is maintained. Such storms will have the highest
potential for producing isolated tornadoes. Otherwise, storms will
be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail as they
spread into central Nebraska. Sparse instances of very large hail
also cannot be ruled out given the high amounts of available
buoyancy in the -10 to -30C layer.
Latest high resolution model data depicts an increase in storm
coverage later this evening, especially in Nebraska, as high theta-e
air is advected over a baroclinic zone.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/28/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...