MattPetrulli

Fizhugh cell wrapping up Also watch cell north of Huntsville, TX

Woof that NAM run would certainly be a higher end setup if it were to verify. Also, would think SPC puts out at LEAST a slight risk for Wednesday, gotta watch this closely.

Moreof really crappy wind profiles

TDS north of Leesville, LA.

Yuckie

Man those high risk rumors are flying tonight on Twitter

Yeah HRRR has a lot of intense cells but not a lot of UH tracks, was curious about that.

Very large 10% for Sunday.

NWS Jackson AFD Saturday night through Sunday night... Several rounds of severe weather will be possible across the region during this period as potent upper level shortwave pushes a surface boundary across the Southern MS Valley region. A preceding upper level disturbance embedded within the developing southwest flow aloft across the region will help to enhance storms along a warm front that will begin to lift across the region early Sunday. The main threat with these elevated thunderstorms on Sunday morning will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. An unstable airmass will quickly develop during the late morning period as the warm front lifts out of the ArkLaMiss and teh cold front begins to approach from the west. Dew points will increase to near 70 while SB CAPE values will range from 2k-4k. Surface based storms will begin to enter the region from the west late in the morning as the surface boundary nears the region. Ample amounts of deep layer shear will be available for storms to tap into, helping them to become and maintain their severe status as they track across the region. Guidance has also continued the trend of increasing low level shear with each new run. The main threats with storms across the region on Sunday late Sunday morning through Sunday evening will be damaging straight line winds between 60-70 mph, large hail up to tennis ball, and tornadoes. Parameters suggesting a few strong tornadoes across the region are continuing to improve, but will keep tornado wording in the HWO the same for now.

Once in a few years kind of outbreak for sure.

Tornado emergency coming out for Walterboro

Tornado entering Walterboro, SC

Watch the cell approaching Troy, AL. Discrete supercell with a kidney bean appearance but broad and weak rotation for the moment

Well this was an extremely common theme during 4/27. Had multiple long trackers in that same region. Most notably, an EF4 went over exclusively mountainous areas in Blount County, TN.

Watch the cell coming out of Anniston

Seems like portions of the northern extent of the line is exhibiting some discrete structure.

Watch cell N of New Hebron, MS. Lightning and rotation increasing

Right as you say that, TDS pops up.

Wow!!!!

That was really quick from MD to actual watch.

Unless 00z guidance tanks, I think we will be seeing a day 3 moderate. Pretty good model agreement on a major threat for Sunday, however we have definitely seen threats like these fall apart within 3 days so lets not take an outbreak as a 100% certainty despite what some FB posters may say.

Agreed, splits are something that may temper this event a bit. Imo needs to be talked about more.

I think I remember you calling Florence overhyped or something like that. Clown.

Pretty slow the past week or so here.

No significant changes with 20z outlook.