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MattPetrulli

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Everything posted by MattPetrulli

  1. 00z GFS brings it close to FL, then stalls it off the coast for 2 days as a major hurricane, before drifting SW. 00z Legacy brings it into Miami as a TS/cat 1.
  2. 12z euro doesn't do much with it and makes it stay weak for a while. 18z legacy GFS and regular GFS bring it further west however. Another thing, brings PR more into play as GFS brings a strong TS/cat 1 into PR.
  3. 12z Euro brings it into the Eastern Gulf and mostly keeps it an open wave
  4. A number of 06z GEFS ensembles develop this wave in the Bahamas and recurve it.
  5. Reminds me of Tropical Storm Julia back in 2016 a little bit. Also looking at it from Miami radar, it already looks more organized than Barry.
  6. Maybe it does develop into a TD or maybe even a low grade TS, but this isn't the "dangerous" and "explosive" development you were advertising.
  7. Come on man, this isn't nearly a dangerous situation or a system within an environment for explosive development. This shouldn't be a thread.
  8. I can certainly see it happening. Only 2 high risks have ever been issued on 01z outlook (April 30,2010 and May 22,2004) Also some higher population cities potentially in the path of the main complex include Wasau(39k) and Stevens Point (26K) in the next few hours
  9. Looks like most tropical activity is done for the month unless we get quick development close to home. Wave train should be in business towards August, however.
  10. Most if not all of the upwelling occurred in the central and NW GOM. The eastern GOM is still at or above normal. Air temps are running in the mid-to-upper 90s through the end of the month regardless. You are correct in that it won't take very long for the western half of the GOM to rebound for August. Even right now it's still warm enough for tropical systems
  11. Gulf should rebound rather quickly too, if it hasn't already. Gotta watch.
  12. 00z Euro shifting west and bringing into Beaumont, TX area with a lot of rain and as a strong TS.
  13. A lot of super cellular structures quite similar to yesterday. Think this event can over preform tornado wise imo.
  14. Looked at a tour of North Dayton, specifically the Northridge area, that was done several years ago. Lots of nice neighborhoods with brick homes.. narrator said it was a poor area.
  15. East Columbus cell looks to have a tornado in progress or close to one on TCMH..
  16. We have a debris ball now on the new cell.
  17. May be the event people remember for years if its as bad as it looks.
  18. Debris ball with new tornado, over Page Manor. This is a catastrophe unfolding..
  19. as of 2010 census, City of Dayton has 140k+, greater Dayton area has 800k+
  20. Crossing I-75, massive tornado going through an urban area didn't think I'd see this for a while.
  21. Nevermind, massive debris blowup and cc drop.. 28.2%
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