MattPetrulli

SW OK cell which was on its last breaths earlier now showing healthy signs of tornado formation soon if it survives this merger

Crescent cell is gonna be choked by WF soon. Childress cell has potential but is struggling and is continuing to struggle producing. KFDR’s VAD is not great with 0-1 km being kinda meh. Lapse rates may also be preventing development in open warm sector. Wellington cell has improved the past few scans so we’ll see with that. Unless we’re discrete later on when dynamics improve some, I don’t see 45 verifying Edit:Watch out if a storm is able to go up and sustain itself in open warm sector

Wow that is racing.

Important to note 3k NAM has been NOT a good model this year.

Which is why I said parameters and not overall. Still think there are some failure modes, but its becoming more unlikely by the hour.

Godspeed Oklahoma. Type of setup to get a 45 introduced with parameters in place.

33 tornado reports now in a 10% and hundreds of wind reports in a 45% damaging wind risk. But this is a bust.

Probable debris sig near Whitakers, NC

6 tornado warnings currently

12z HRRR. Besides any tornado threat, at least a significant hail threat for DFW.

2/3 of CAMs with discrete initiation over warm sector. The other CAM, NMMB, doesn't initiate anything at 00z

Thinking is some sups initiating along dryline in TX bringing hail and tornado threat for portions of DFW and areas surrounding. Then dryline further south initiates and has a messy mode moving through TX and Louisiana slowly growing upscale moving through MS and AL. Right now definitely not the tornado threat we had last week but could rack up a couple QLCS tornadoes, especially in MS where dynamics are gonna be a lot better versus further west. Could help us keep average for this week in terms of tornado count.

CIPs for Wednesday and Thursday

Looks nasty on TDAY

Early reports are usually sometimes exaggerated to an extent like there were reports of bodies in ditches in Perryville, houses swept away after Marshalltown 7/19/18, etc. However the signature that was present with this along with the nighttime effect give me a really really bad feeling about this one. Reminds me of the Lee Co. tornado from earlier this year.

Tor warned now

New circulation passing dangerously close to Starkville.

Cycle almost complete, Vicksburg and Delta in big trouble.

PDS issued for cell heading into Vicksburg.

I wonder if this is the cell HRRR kept on hinting at coming close to Monroe

Starting to get a couplet getting into Trawick, TX. Line is going super cellular in TX. Just getting started.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if this was on the ground since Crocket and hasn't lifted, maybe even south of Crocket. Would be 30+ miles.

Debris signature heading into Alto, TX