MattPetrulli

Seems like something interesting to note is a trend for less spacing and supercells present on 13z and 14z HRRR. Definitely something to monitor

Becoming pretty concerned about a strong tor risk extending well into Knox metro area, given the 12z HRRR and recent HRRR trends.

Most of them have been pretty bad outbreaks, though 10z was down a tick. 11z is back to a major outbreak.

Agreed, somewhat nervous here if a cell escapes its way into the valley like 12z HRRR insisted upon. Definitely a decent tornado risk with any supercell from 00-03z across most of the valley imo.

I very much do

Day 4 risk area put out by SPC ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thu - Eastern TX to the Central Gulf Coast States... An upper shortwave trough over the Rio Grande/northern Mexico will strengthen and become negatively tilted as it ejects northeast across the Arklatex through Thursday evening, and to the Ohio Valley by Friday morning. Intense shear will overspread the south-central and southern U.S. ahead of the trough. Furthermore, strong low-level warm advection will result in a broad warm sector ahead of a deepening surface low and eastward-advancing cold front from the Sabine Valley eastward across the central Gulf coast/TN Valley vicinity. Differences in the evolution of the surface low across the lower MS and OH Valleys are still apparent in medium-range guidance. This is mainly resulting in uncertainty in the position of the surface low and cold front Thursday morning, and how far east each of these features progresses by Friday morning. As a result, changes in severe probabilities, especially on the western and northeastern edges, are likely in the coming days. Nevertheless, weak to moderate instability will overlap with favorable shear parameters and an overall supportive pattern for severe convection. A couple of rounds of severe storms could be possible, as some warm-sector development may occur across the Lower MS Valley before a QLCS develops along the surging cold front during the evening/nighttime hours. All severe hazards will be possible with discrete warm-sector supercells. Potential for damaging gusts and tornadoes will becoming preferential with any upscale development along the cold front.

May have been a little bit too early to put a thread out given there's no SPC risk area yet, however 06z GFS and 00z Euro both are pretty interesting solutions for the deep south Thursday with some timing and location differences to work out and this setup definitely deserves watching.

March 27 Yearly count: 1185

Cells in NE AL beginning to show more signs of developing, embedded mesocyclones.

I really don't get how a regional tornado outbreak is a bust lol

Imo, I think SPC re-evaluates the moderate risk whether to keep it for tornadoes or not. There isn't much of a strong signal for discrete cells producing tornadoes on any CAM model besides a little bit on HREF. I'd be pretty surprised to see a 15% hatched stay given tonight's guidance. Definitely wasn't a bust, a regional tornado outbreak with multiple siggys definitely did occur in AL. However, I don't mean to monday morning QB, I thought so at the time of and think so now, the 45% was too much, 30% woulda done fine. Either way, definitely wasn't a "bust".

Definitely something to watch as HRRR kinda hints at the same idea but is more bullish. I'm pretty curious to learn more about why they are showing what looks like discrete cells but aren't producing these big UH tracks.

SREF already at 60 for 00z Thursday.

12z HRRR and NAM came in decently for the Panhandle, this is 00z Childress Texas from the NAM

Can anyone explain why MRX and media outlets are showing lower totals compared to like every model suite since 12z? Ground too warm possibly?

Given 12z suite, would expect MRX to bump up totals across the valley and hopefully issue more WWAs, surprise there are not much out in the valley as it is.

This at least has more model consensus than past events, at least right now it does.

Very heavy snow and windy with 1/4-1/2 visibility for the past hour and a half. Probably the closest we'll get to blizzard conditions for the next century

Ill take my 2-4" of snow but I'm more interested in the convective bands depicted by 3k NAM and HRRR

Like the setup for tornadoes today across the region given CAMs support for low topped supercells and the clearing going on across the Valley. Lots of sunshine in Pigeon Forge currently. I wish I was going out but probably am not, good luck to anyone that does go out.

TORR out with a TDS now

Likely tornado approaching Thompson, Summit, and McComb, MS.

Yep big time TDS