MattPetrulli

Great thread

Probably have a 120 MPH hurricane right now

Once again asking what the problem is considering the GFS almost did that exact same analog lol.

What's the problem with this post?

Every 18z suite model shows intensification back into a mid-high end category 4 at the very least. That is, besides the HWRF and GFS which kinda keep it steady state.

Hmmmmm

Funny how the Euro suite is the one to the west and the GFS/GEFS suite is one to the east. Usually vice versa lol. I think a US impact has become slightly more probable today, esp if it ends up going into Nova Scotia like what a lot of GEFS suggest. Getting harder to avoid at least a close shave.

Be careful, you're a wishcaster for posting that. But seriously, this trend reminds me a bit of Henri and Florence when they were pretty cleanly forecast OTS and that didn't happen. It's a game of trends, am also extremely curious to see if any trough interactions creates any kind of PRE event.

Skull

Read more, post less. Making a relevant meteorological observation on a model run is not wishcasting. As has been pointed out, there's clearly continuation of a southern/slower trend on 18z GFS. Downcasting is just as bad as wishcasting.

The GFS is a pathetic model

These are pretty far south compared to the Euro. Would favor a recurse atm, but definitely don't think it's auto fish or anything. Especially if it ends up weaker than modeled, which is becoming a bit more possible today, and heads more south/west than currently projected.

See you guys here on page 60 of the thread next week

Curious to see how close this can get to Savannah, as it looks like the main circulation itself may go right over the city.

I was thinking some of the surge forecast was gonna be a little off, but with high tide still coming up and a constant onshore flow, I can see at least someone verifying 10-12+. My guess would be Horseshoe Beach .

Perry also may receive a direct eyewall hit. Reminds me a bit of Houma from Ida.

Horseshoe Beach seems to have 6-7 ft+ ongoing and is gonna be in a band for a little bit that exacerbates it. This may be ground zero for surge damage.

Cedar Key is approaching 10 ft If Horseshoe beach manages to stay in the band a little longer I can see them surpassing Cedar Key, esp with back flow.

Band setting up down south may do the dirty work with pushing in the surge and delivering TS-hurricane conditions outside of the inner eyewall. Setting up at a bad angle too

...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION THIS MORNING... ...6 AM POSITION UPDATE... Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Idalia has maximum sustained winds of 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum pressure indicated by Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 942 mb (27.82 inches). Within the past hour, a C-MAN station on Cedar Key measured sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h), with a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h), and a Weatherflow station at Apalachee Bay measured a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h), with a gust to 51 mph (83 km/h). SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 83.9W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...27 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

Expected a lot more on land at least, especially since we're so close to the eyewall.