MattPetrulli

No need to be rude. Just presenting the idea, accounting for east wobbles.

With continued NNE motion, it may come in AT Cape Coral instead of a little north. Hard to tell though.

I thought maybe concentric eyewalls too, but want to wait for recon to make a pass.

Little bit of a moat after the southern eyewall. Thinking maybe a little dry air? Everyone free to chime in of course

Just south of Sarasota, 8 PM Wednesday, 110 Knots

I want Ldubb's thoughts on this

that area is super super low lying. I don't think a lot of evacuations are ongoing there based off traffic but could be wrong. They could be in for a really bad time

Last pass adjusting for flight levels and SFMR supports 110-115 MPH on 11 AM advisory

It's not, it's virtually identical Edit: Sorry, after the LF point it is north and west. My bad.

It'll come in a different area than Irma, but the satellite appearance, last minute shifts, expansion of the wind field after Cuba, and the angle of approach remind me a lot of Irma. Of course, east coast probably won't be hit as hard since Irma was massive, but think it's a valid comparison.

Trying to clear out a stadium effect eye right after Cuba lol

Some evacuees on I-4

Ft Myers area is just as surge prone, gonna be really bad down there assuming the angle on the NHC forecast happens

No meant, the spike before the eyewall which thought represents a potential EWRC but seems not true Also we likely have a major

00z GFS battling west coast at 00z Thursday. A little east.

Also, yes Cuba may temporarily disrupt intensification. However, HMON, HWRF, HAFS (not sure how good it is but it's a hurricane model) all show a dramatic expansion of the wind field post Cuba.

Next pass will be from SW to NE within the hour. Expecting them to find 110-115 MPH storm. IR appearance improving each frame

Curious about the second spike. Anyone wanna chime in?

The shift from a miss to the west to a Wednesday Night Florida Landfall potentially has been pretty insane the past 24 hours.

That area between Sarasota and Cape Coral is a little more rural compared to the big west coast cities. Charley went that way and as we know damage was a little more limited because of that (still very costly). However, I think the wind field will be a lot bigger than Charley even though this won't come in as a 150 MPH hurricane. The lack of a big wind field led to a minimal surge with Charley (I believe around 6 feet which is crazy low for a category 4). The size of Charley was about the same as Ian is now,(according to 1 PM advisory August 13, 2004). So assuming the models are correct, the wind field SHOULD grow a lot more. That wind field can lead to really bad storm surge problems in Cape Coral and Ft Myers, which would be a difference vs Charley. So besides the hopeful Tampa miss to the west and the weakening solutions with tropical storm conditions etc, I think a potential best case scenario MAY be a landfall between those 2 cities, but either solution would be really bad. I could be a little ignorant to some aspects, so just from what I have gathered. Of course, others free to chip in.

ATP, im hoping for more of a miss to the east/south rather than west. Miss to the west looks increasingly unlikely

Was already projected 4-7 ft of surge so.

18z Euro may bring it back over the Atlantic lol