MattPetrulli

That area between Sarasota and Cape Coral is a little more rural compared to the big west coast cities. Charley went that way and as we know damage was a little more limited because of that (still very costly). However, I think the wind field will be a lot bigger than Charley even though this won't come in as a 150 MPH hurricane. The lack of a big wind field led to a minimal surge with Charley (I believe around 6 feet which is crazy low for a category 4). The size of Charley was about the same as Ian is now,(according to 1 PM advisory August 13, 2004). So assuming the models are correct, the wind field SHOULD grow a lot more. That wind field can lead to really bad storm surge problems in Cape Coral and Ft Myers, which would be a difference vs Charley. So besides the hopeful Tampa miss to the west and the weakening solutions with tropical storm conditions etc, I think a potential best case scenario MAY be a landfall between those 2 cities, but either solution would be really bad. I could be a little ignorant to some aspects, so just from what I have gathered. Of course, others free to chip in.

ATP, im hoping for more of a miss to the east/south rather than west. Miss to the west looks increasingly unlikely

Was already projected 4-7 ft of surge so.

18z Euro may bring it back over the Atlantic lol

Something that shouldn’t be forgotten, GFS Euro and HMON all show an expansive wind field approaching the coast. It correlates with tropical storm watches issued for other areas of West Coast. That area near Ft Myers is really surge prone and has a projected 4-7 ft of surge which is enough to do a lot of damage

Could distance away from radar and/or radar quality, but the inner core looks quite ragged currently.

Recon making a center pass so about to find out

GEFS east some too

This would be 4th system in 8 years that goes up the Florida coast and threatens some of the core coming ashore, (Dorian, Matthew, Isaias). Just funny because I don't recall that in 2000s/90s, could be wrong though

Just parks over Tampa through 00z Friday lmao

Also gives tropical storm conditions to most of the Florida West Coast which I was skeptical of, even though there's warnings and watches out.

12z GFS maybe a tad east, but stronger and bigger

Recon a decent ways away from the center and still getting TS force SFMRs

GFS sizably west

Ian is GOING TO WORK, this is not a 60 MPH tropical storm anymore

May be there sooner than later. Satellite also looks increasingly better

https://www.weather.gov.ky/radar Radar from Grand Cayman to use has Ian's center in range

Recon found the center again, along with a temperature spike indicating core formation in progress

Yes, could be right about this

More ensembles on 18z going towards peninsula + showing the stall along with more W Florida landfalls. Just off the pure eye. The mean itself may be deviated by the members which go in west of PC, which probably won't happen.

18z GEFS goes east

18z Euro a little west, but stronger