MattPetrulli

Given downslopping, am just hopping for 2 inches in Pigeon Forge at this point. Pretty disappointing but we got 5-7" in the system a few weeks ago so it buffs out I guess.

I am curious about the HRRR part because if I recall correctly, the HRRR did not do great at all last event and it ended up drier than expected in southern mid state and East TN.

MRX seems to have upped snow accumulation a little

No longer a Sevier County exclusive snowhole, I would accept 4-6 inches.

Sevier County snowhole happens and I am quitting this hobby.

Sevier County snowhole occurs and I am moving

Light dusting in PF Hopefully we can get some backside snow showers later

Little bit of an issue, seems like 18z HRRR isn't initializing the snow shield correctly in Middle TN. Quite drier than depicted by HRRR.

All rain Pigeon Forge

00z Euro

Seems pretty reasonable to expect 2-5" for Sevier Co on Thursday. I would love if models keep uptrending but 2-5" certainly suffices after the trash winters for the past few years. A lot of the county still without power/having a lot of power issues so have to get it resolved by then. Would be really nice to have another snow that's actually during the day and not at 5 AM though

Appreciate this, ground temperatures and snow has always been confusing to me, am really hoping for at least a few inches.

Is snow depth product on NAM being lower because of it factoring in soil temperatures or snowfall ratio?

Feel free to correct if I don't have a good idea, but am curious to see how much of 5-6 inches of snow as modeled by NAM/HRRR would actually stick and accumulate. I'm expecting at most a dusting here in Sevier County. I don't have a great idea of how fast soil temperature falls with snow, etc. Overall, am hoping for a nice little event here and hopefully an appetizer for later this week.

This is absolutely wild

Yeahhhhh may have to eat those words

I thought so earlier today, but recon and satellite show a rather very disorganized system and most intensity guidance has stayed in TS territory this evening. Could make it to a hurricane maybe, but I think it's rather unlikely at this time. Small size could help it spin up and intensify quickly, but it only has about 24-36 more hours over water at most so we'll see.

...NICHOLAS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST... ...STORM SURGE WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 95.5W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

Euro coming in with a landfall in mid TX coast Tuesday morning. Models seem to be zeroing in on a US landfall but nothing for sure yet.

While 12z GFS and ensembles are stronger with 94L, something that may hold it back besides land interaction would be dry air as multiple GFS runs have been hinting at

Ensembles hinting at that and def gotta watch considering ridging is favorable for a US impact.

18z GFS now has a hurricane impacting the Texan coast given (future) 94L doesn't spend most of its time on land. This is why the 12z Euro is weaker because of its proximity to land. Definitely need to monitor.

12z Euro develops the disturbance in the Caribbean and moves it along the TX coast as a weak system, pretty much the only model showing development of that though besides a few GEFS ensembles. Another thing to watch is a wave that'll be coming through the Bahamas late next week, GFS and Euro don't show development atm, but several GEFS members have been consistent on developing it for several runs, so something to watch

...CENTER OF MINDY MAKES LANDFALL AT ST. VINCENT ISLAND FLORIDA... National Weather Service Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that the center of Mindy has made landfall over St. Vincent Island, Florida. The Tyndall Air Force Base tower south of Apalachicola, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h) at an elevation of 115 ft (35 m). SUMMARY OF 815 PM CDT...0115 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 85.2W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES Definitely one of the better 40 knot tropical storms I have seen on radar

Almost a partial eyewall like feature created by frictional convergence as it's coming ashore, wouldn't be surprised if it was a 45 knot TS currently.