MattPetrulli
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Everything posted by MattPetrulli
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Something of note, a big bend landfall would probably be best case scenario here. Small storm may limit surge into major west coast cities, and big bend is pretty unpopulated. Also, may be a weakening hurricane rather than a strengthening one. Atm I would favor a landfall just north of Tampa however
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Shift west on 00z GEFS, but quite a wide spread
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00z GFS further east and weaker
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Frictional convergence increasing on landfalling eyewall leading to intense DBZs. Definitely still got a Cat 2-3 level storm.
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Curious if new flare up is indicative of a LLC reformation to the SW
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Now have Tropical Storm Ian according to best track or whatever that thingy is called 35 knt 1005 MB
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Thread for banter of future tropical storm/hurricane/major hurricane Ian
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Nice sting jet bro
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Almost like if you don't take the bait the bait disappears!
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East shift on 18z GEFS
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New cone is slightly west
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TD10 has been given the name Hermine. TD 9 will be Ian.
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Intense burst of convection too
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18z Spaghettis go west
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Important observation is almost all of those are significant hits, different from the decaying tropical storm the 12z GFS provided
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Something not talked about much, Havana and the Keys have a decent shot at sustaining a significant hurricane hit before moving towards main SW Florida, assuming a path further to the east is realized.
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Andrew
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That's gonna be a fairly significant Carolinas hit
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Slight adjustment west would be worse. Would push more surge into Ft Myers area which is extremely surge prone
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12z Euro basically follows the exact NHC cone
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FWIW HMON and HWRF which are on the left side of the guidance absolutely explodes TD9
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00z Euro is gonna be fun on social media tomorrow. I don't know if you can tell but that is not OTS btw
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Strangely quiet, gotta think the Canadian benchmark hurricane would be challenged here. Somewhat ignorant to it, but may be at or surpass the damage of Hurricane Juan.
