MattPetrulli

Something tells me that it's not an Invest anymore

Think even if it misses Florida to the east, may be able to provide a threat to OBX northward with building high pressure

FWIW a decent bit of GEFS members into the Bay of Campeche

Looks good

Good observation, for example on 12z GFS the wind field is absolutely massive. This has been a consistent trend in modeling too, hasn't really been showing a small storm when it bombs out.

That's gonna produce a LOT of ACE.

Satellite appearance, specifically the eye, has degraded somewhat since earlier with a contracting eye, but could be due to towers maybe? Maybe EWRC but not much evidence of a secondary eyewall. Recon about to pass through so we'll see if it's steady or intensifying still.

Since we have reached quite a remarkable consensus, a lot could still change, but this would be a big win for the GFS. GFS has been sniffing this system out since the 12z run of September 15th. If it were to form, would be about 10-12 days of lead time which is excellent.

Strong signal on GEFS, GFS, Euro, EPS. NHC will probably put out a lemon soon.

Seems more of a WNW motion has commenced via radar, to be confirmed until Recon however. Punta Cana will likely end up in some part of the eyewall, if not a landfall.

11 PM puts hurricane warnings up for Turks & Caicos

Recon finding a mostly steady state cane, probably due to dry air entrainment from land.

Also, the SW/W movement could lead to intensity fluctuations. Obviously if it goes into more of DR, core could be disrupted more and thus go more west, not important in terms of US impacts but matters for SE Bahamas. Also could eventually lead to more of a miss of Bermuda and/or a weaker storm that takes more time to intensify over open water. We'll just have to see.

Was skeptical at first about a real DR landfall but quite a due west wobble last few frames and I think SE DR will get a landfall, if not the western eyewall.

Not even close to rain ending either. HMON and HWRF bring bands into PR through midday tomorrow. Something tells me we may not see the name Fiona after this season.

Another thing of note, almost every model absolutely bombs this in the next few days. It should make a really close approach to Bermuda Thursday as a large, major hurricane.

Definitely a strengthening storm, 994 last pass with 55-60 knots in NE quad

Also think real US threat would be homegrown development. As mentioned earlier GFS has been hinting at some development week of the 26th. Wouldn't usually point it out, but climo supports it. Also has a handful of supporting EPS members as well as a few GEFS members. Worth a watch.

Recon finding a somewhat disorganized system with wind max away from the center. This is probably due to dry air entrainment into the center, as evident by the lack of convection in left quadrant. Still a 50-55 knot tropical storm, but needs to organize more for quicker intensification. That being said, appears on radar that organization is becoming more apparent with center increasingly becoming more defined. This could possibly be because of proximity to radar being better, but also because of DMAX. DMAX should help Fiona a bit more and could push it towards more of a 60-65 knot system overnight.

As depicted by 00z Euro, probably gonna be serious flooding in PR

Pressure fixes also indicate a deepening storm

Was skeptical of the stronger model solutions all day due to the way Fiona has looked today, really disheveled and disorganized. However, as mentioned earlier, the IR blowup near the center appears to be giving it some boost now. Recon shows a 45-50 knot TS with MAYBE an inner wind maxima developing. Think this may be correlated to frictional convergence created by Guadeloupe. This is supported somewhat by radar which shows intense thunderstorms around the center which is over the island Still very asymmetric, needs a lot of work on structure, and I also could be making a stretch but appears it is getting its act together. Most models which deepen Fiona to a strong TS/Cat 1 hurricane within next 2 days, have a small core deepening and getting started tonight/tomorrow morning with somewhat faster deepening tomorrow night I do not think the OTS solution is set in stone, however I think the next 2 days of intensification tell a lot of story. As said a billion times less intensification= more west. The models (HMON/HWRF/GFS/EURO) are actually in fairly good agreement about the intensification phase and we'll see if it verifies.

00z Spaghettis continue to go more west and south

60 MPH and 1006 MB at 5 PM Intensity up to 60 knots near DR