BristowWx

I was re-reading Accuwwethers 2016-17 winter forecast. It was less than accurate for the east coast. Frequent cold and snow. It didn't quite happen like that if memory serves. The truth is no one really knows what will happen. Fun to speculate but I will take it week by week this year and pace myself.

Absolutely that would be some real cold rain for the lower elevations if precipitation were associated with that pattern with possible rain mixed with snow changing all snow at elevation above 2000 feet including skyline Drive.

You have both. Obviously a good memory but also smart enough to pick nearly the best location in our forum for maximum snowfall potential. This is not by accident, you are a wise man. And yes, we were unlucky last winter in many ways. It takes a lot of things to go right for us to get the kind of winter events we enjoy but only a couple of things to go wrong for us to get the shaft. Margin of error for us is limited. Its what makes us special. We suffer for our snow.

One thing I notice is the op GFS in la la land range has gone from fairly chilly to summer like heat in one run. Taking 28 Oct, next Saturday, as the example. Probably means nothing, being an op run, but a hallmark of last year was fantasy blocking and cold that switched to searing heat in the uber long range which seemed to most often pan out. Let's see where this ends up. Now the GEFS tells a different tale for now so I remain with guarded optimism.

37 when I left for work at 0545. Frost on the car. Tire pressure sensor activated like Mappy. Sweater worn with dress shirt. Its time.....Lets light this candle.

My zone forecast says Patchy Frost. And so it begins...best time of the year. Next up clocks set back and earlier model runs. Then 500mb tracking vorts that just miss the phase. CAD and straddling the 850 line. These are a few of my favorite things.

yes...multiple 1-2 inches events would be excellent...way better than getting the big one and watching it melt

I like your pics for the first freeze for early Nov. I can’t believe I went with late October for IAD and 10 days later for BWI. My rationale was the bay has to be a furnace and will prevent 32F. I have remorse about my choices but too late now. I put DCA in early Dec. that I feel good about.

I made it through last Christmas...that was ugly...I can’t imagine much worse..but I can be proven wrong.

As bad as this heat is it could be Thanksgiving or Christmas....then the tears will flow. Give me 1989...please. We need a first flakes contest.

-SN has begun...31F. NAM looks great. Hitting the Jack pretty hard tonight.

I pray this isn’t the theme for winter...Atlantic high pressure, dry and warm.

6z looks as though the rainfall will be lack luster at best.

you would think that but what I have learned living here is we can get screwed a number of ways...but most often when it seems like a lock..something I shall remember when the models take away my digital snow the day prior to the event...you know its coming

That scenario will be ugly for them...we will be lucky to have clouds and breezes