luckyweather

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About luckyweather

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KRFD
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  • Location:
    Caledonia, IL

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  1. Not in the sub, but the spigot has shutoff in Colorado, at least for now, and so the snowpack is transforming into a fragile structure, developing facets that will probably produce some big slides after the snow comes back, as they’ll be the trigger layer for sliding. Thought I’d share as it’s interesting stuff, though not really a topic we’ll ever get the chance to discuss here, except maybe this season, at the rate we’re going ;-)
  2. Little Switz in mke is turning their lifts this weekend, Tyrol Basin in Madison opened their terrain park last weekend, Lutsen is already open, almost a lock alpine valley will open next weekend, no problem making snow in this environment, granite peak in wausau opens next weekend. The area ski hills have had record late seasons with the lingering cold into spring the past few seasons, now getting open about as early as possible this season - should be another good year for snow sports enthusiasts.
  3. Yes. The past several days I’ve been noticing most annual ground plants and bushes around here (Winnebago county IL on the WI state line) are either done or turning. A bush in our yard that always turns blaze orange after the first hard freeze, usually into October, is orange, etc. I had to ask myself if we got down into the low 30s last week but I know we didn’t. Sunshine was hard to come by this past week, I don’t know if the decreasing day length, reduced solar energy due to diminishing sun angle, and cloud cover maybe put together a triple whammy to cut the growing season a little short? No sign of tree changes yet other than the typical minor leaf shed that is right on schedule. I’m a little over a solid degree latitude under you, so our observations could be entirely localized and different...
  4. Here in Rockford August opens with an average high/low of 83.6/62.5 and closes with 80.5/58.8. September opens with 80.3/58.5 and closes with 69.5/45.8. August opens with a day length of 14:26:49 and closes at 13:11. September opens with 13:09 and closes with 11:47. September starts out the first ten days or so as a continuation of August, but then things start happening in a hurry. The shorter days start getting noticeable. The pretty large dip in average high produces some of the most spectacular days a given year has to offer, usually somewhere around 9/15 through 10/5 or so. Bluebird skies, highs in the 70s, very low humidity, smells of earth and fall. I love winter, but that short stretch of fall takes a close second.
  5. August usually seems to be one of the dullest months. To each their own of course, but even just numbers wise - averages don’t change much through the month, outside of tracking tropical remnants just a pretty boring month weather wise. Guess we should go see what Frankie says winter will bring: https://unofficialnetworks.com/2019/07/19/official-2020-winter-weather-forecast/amp/
  6. Discussion on trough and cool down mid week, Skilling and LOT. Lot: Sfc ridge axis will move south of area early in the week allowing more of a westerly gradient to develop and keep laking cooling at bay. Upper trough will dig into the Great Lakes region mid-late week with a return to below average temps/humidity. Cold front along the leading edge of the cooler less humid air mass cold bring some showers and t-storms to the area later Monday night through Tuesday night. At this time it looks like the best rain chances will be to our north Monday night with redevelopment later Tuesday focusing southern CWA or even points south. The modest/low precip chances offered up in the model blend seem reasonable at this point
  7. Skilling posted a thorough Facebook post yesterday on the upcoming -nao and corresponding cooler temps as August arrives.
  8. Palm Tree guy, would you be interested in going on a road trip to Minnesota with me? https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/07/19/in-minnesota-you-can-still-find-a-skiing-spot-in-a-july-heat-wave-sort-of A field of snow has lasted into the latter half of July at Lutsen Mountains. It’s not much, but it’s still a significant amount of the fluffy stuff. “Enough snow for a snowball fight,” said Jim Vick, Lutsen’s marketing director. The patch on Mystery Mountain is some 20 feet in circumference and 8 feet deep and it’s slowly shrinking over the summer. Snow in that spot lasted until the end of June last year and early July the year before, Vick said.
  9. Just came across this news of another de havilland beaver crashing in Alaska yesterday with a fatality. https://www.homernews.com/news/1-injured-in-tutka-bay-plane-accident/?fbclid=IwAR3ZCu-K1r0otj_X9SKQffSEHe8moU1hbRkVvdNbM5C51g_eNEJcW0tnekc
  10. With the heat wave, I thought some might appreciate cooler thoughts. I just returned from a couple weeks in Colorado mountaineering. For the most part it was solid winter conditions- wore micro spikes and crampons for snowfield traverses, had to have ice axes for self arresting, and brought snowshoes but didn’t bring them when I actually needed them, would have worn them if I’d had them as postholing was a real problem in places. Climbed over a couple avalanche slides that were still 30-40’ deep with snow. Pictured is the alpine lake ‘emma’ near the base of mt democrat, still frozen solid. The snowfield I traversed to get to here was indistinguishable from mid / late winter. This lake would be liquid and materially all of the surrounding snow would be gone by this time any other year. There is a not insignificant chance some of this snowpack will hold on into the next winter season in Colorado as snow starts to happen typically in September occasionally at this elevation and above.
  11. Sorry to hear that, hope their families and friends can find peace. I flew on a de havilland beaver (same as in this crash) last summer out of talkeetna Alaska, landing on the kahiltna glacier near mt Denali. Later that day that beaver crashed, and it and it’s occupants are forever entombed on the knife edge of a mountain where it crashed. It was very sobering being that close to death. The beaver is a popular bush plane but it’s my understanding it’s been out of production for quite some time. They are simple, non pressurized aircraft that are generally pretty reliable but not a lot of redundancy so if there’s a catastrophic failure the odds are poor. I’m not making any efforts to fly on one again in the future.
  12. Warmth and tranquility over the gulf of Alaska are what drive the development and maintenance of the blob. Hope the pattern breaks down over Alaska before too long. Pretty epic fire season up there this year as well. Currently in Colorado and the snowpack is still alive and kicking at and above 12,000’/basically at the timberline and above.
  13. Pics turned out great. Awful to hear about the crash though. Hoping you’re okay.
  14. I just drove through what I believe to be a weak tornado but radar signature doesn’t really show it. Could have been straight line wind but it it was certainly spinning around me. I was just on my commute home when in a split second I was in it. Only about a mile from home. My truck was lifting, no hail, got home and saw my plate which definitely wasn’t like that when I left the office. Went back to where it was happening and the pictured damage is there. Rural Winnebago county between Roscoe and Machesney Park.