janetjanet998

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Everything posted by janetjanet998

  1. the lake band looked decent for a bit but now has weakened and is moving to the IIL/IN border
  2. a couple of yellow pixels (32 dBZ) now within that band and showing up in COD nexlab radar at times
  3. not very bullish on LE 1-3 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 300 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2021 SHORT TERM 259 PM CST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR THESE SHOWERS, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WE WILL SEE THESE SNOW SHOWERS BECOME BETTER FOCUSED INTO PORTIONS OF COOK COUNTY AND LAKE COUNTY IN TONIGHT AS A LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY KEEP THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COOK COUNTY (AND ADJACENT AREAS OF LAKE IN) THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES IN IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FROM A THERMODYAMICS PERSPECTIVE. IN FACT, A RECENT AMDAR SOUNDING OUT OF MDW SUGGESTS THAT LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RIGHT AT THE -12C LEVEL, WHICH IS ONLY ABOUT 5-6,000 FEET AGL. IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THIS WILL IMPROVE MUCH, IF AT ALL, OVERNIGHT. THIS DOES ADD SOME CONCERN TO THE QUALITY OF SNOW IN THESE LAKE EFFECT BANDS. HOWEVER, WITH A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER FOCUS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE, THIS MAY ACT TO COMPENSATE FOR THE MODEST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. FOR THIS REASON, WHILE THIS IS UNLIKELY TO TURN INTO A MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR COOK OR LAKE COUNTY IN, WE COULD SEE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPORT A BAND OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COOK/PARTS OF LAKE IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUR CURRENT FORECAST MENTIONS ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE LAKE IN SOUTHERN COOK AND FAR NORTHWESTERN IN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN LAKE IN AND PORTER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END ALTOGETHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
  4. as mentioned by others above it looks like the LE is starting also light snow showers are now falling over SE Cook county per radar There is chance this area could see snow , at various intensities, the next 24 hours per Nam nest (until 21z weds) which is rather rare on the IL side of the lake
  5. perhaps this segment of the system (700mb low with Lake enhancement) can overachieve for NE IL??? MKE in their recent discussion said they only expected another inch but since then MKE radar has filled in nicely
  6. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 1102 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2021 UPDATE 1102 AM CST BANDS OF MODERATE, TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT FAR NORTHERN IL, MAINLY NORTH OF I-88. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF BETTER FRONTOGENESIS AROUND 700 MB AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE 700MB LOW. THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN IL, WITH SOME SHOWERY BROKEN MULTI-BANDS BEGINNING TO SET UP. OVERALL, THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES IN NORTHERN IL WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ABATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECT OCCASIONAL LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE HEAVIEST BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHICAGO SUBURBS. OTHERWISE, SNOW RATES SHOULD BE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER RATES IN ANY MORE ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE. WINTER HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON FOR ALL BUT MY EASTERN COUNTIES NEAR THE LAKE, WHICH PERSIST UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS LOOKS OKAY AT THIS POINT AS MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE ENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT BEING SAID, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MCHENRY AND KANE COUNTIES FOR A POSSIBLE EXTENSION FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON. KJB
  7. found this interesting info on the 78-79 winter for IL that details each storm published in 1980 at one point the entire northern 1/3 of the state had a snow depth of at least 20 inches with some places almost 40 Midway had a snow depth of at least 15 inches for 5 weeks straight NE Lake county IL had a seasonal snowfall of around 100 inches! https://www.isws.illinois.edu/pubdoc/RI/ISWSRI-94.pdf
  8. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 908 PM CST MON JAN 25 2021 UPDATE ISSUED AT 908 PM CST MON JAN 25 2021 THE DRY SLOT ALOFT IS QUICKLY REMOVING OUR SOURCE OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT, THUS SHUTTING DOWN MOST OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIP QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH OUR CWA. THAT DOES NOT MEAN PRECIP WILL BE COMPLETELY DONE FOR THE NIGHT, HOWEVER. ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL BE PRESENT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH, SO WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME NEW RADAR RETURNS RE-DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR AT LEAST AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM RUSHVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON. ALL IN ALL, SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE LOOKING TO FALL SHORT OF ORIGINAL PROJECTIONS. THE STEADY BAND OF SNOW IS LOOKING TO SET UP JUST NORTHWEST OF KNOX COUNTY, SO WE WILL LIKELY MISS THE 6" AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WHERE WE HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THE REST OF THE NIGHT, POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL STILL BE PRESENT, SO WILL NOT PULL ANY HEADLINES WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING WERE TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE DIMINISHING/ENDING OF PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, AND SET THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIP EVEN FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM 10 PM TO 2 AM. KNOX AND STARK COULD REMAIN IN THE STEADY LIGHT SNOW, BUT THE HEAVY SNOW BAND APPEARS TO BE ORIENTING IN THE TROWAL A BIT NORTHWEST OF THERE. THE ICING IN OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ONLY AROUND 0.1" OR LESS, BUT REPORTS HAVE BEEN SPARSE SO FAR. TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR ADVISORY EXPIRES AT MIDNIGHT, AND WILL LET THAT OCCUR AS PLANNED. THE NORTHERN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING COUNTIES IS SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH NOON TOMORROW. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MEASURABLE SNOW IT PROJECTED TO CROSS THAT AREA TOMORROW MORNING, ALBEIT LESS THAN AN INCH ADDITIONAL SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND COLLABORATE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. UPDATED FORECAST INFO SHOULD ALREADY BE AVAILABLE.
  9. parts of central IL south of us (SPI, DEC) got 1 to 1.7 inches this morning so they might even end up with more snow comical
  10. as for weds the 26th pretend you didn't see the models.... just by looking at the Water vapor and infrared that is a pretty decent mid/upper level low over AZ now I assume that is the weak weds system.... but looks pretty stout at this point
  11. dryslot number 2 about to cut off the precip here again
  12. Moved about 3 miles more north to the north side of the city ..more snow up this way then where I was a bit ago maybe 1/2 inch
  13. Snowing at a decent clip in those brief bands but in between a combo of pixie dust , light sleet and freezing drizzle first band enough to whiten car windshields and parts of the parking lot
  14. One hell of a dry slot here lots of blue skies above the low clouds ..some sunshine not much sign of it filing back in..perhaps in North central MO a little last few frames temp above freezing now too
  15. not meh but "eh".... like a Canadian was speaking The outliner so far but others trending to something more interesting too
  16. I am foresee most of the 2 wave staying north and we don't get jack 12zNAM only has .25-.3 precip now 12z GFS has a very tight precip; gradient across the county with .25 southeast of .65 NW
  17. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 948 AM CST MON JAN 25 2021 UPDATE 948 AM CST THERE ARE NO MAJOR UPDATES BEING MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE REFINING SNOW TOTALS: (1) BETWEEN I-39 AND I-355 WHERE A LOCAL MINIMA MAY MATERIALIZE BETWEEN THE HEAVIER SNOW RATES TO OUR WEST AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT, RESPECTIVELY (2) ALONG THE IL/WI BORDER WHERE PERSISTENT LIFT THROUGH THE DGZ MAY LEAD TO FLUFFIER SNOW RATIOS (3) ALONG I-80 WHERE A TIGHT SNOW GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE DRY SLOT "SQUEEZING" THE DGZ NORTHWARD, AND (4) AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS SNOW RATIOS INCREASE AND THE UPPER- LEVEL WAVE FINALLY PULLS THROUGH. AT THIS POINT THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES AND ESPECIALLY COOK COUNTY WHERE 4 TO 8, LOCALLY MORE, ARE PROBABLE. THE STEADIEST SNOW RATES, APPROACHING 1"/HR, ARE EXPECTED FROM ROUGHLY 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT, WITH RATES GRADUALLY DECREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SNOW RATES MAY REMAIN HEAVY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. REGARDLESS OF SNOW TOTALS, DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
  18. Looks like some cooling on the NW edge of the precip blob enough for snow...not modeled that well also seems the precip shield is a tad north then modeled .shouldn't last long though 1/2 vis in DEC now KDEC 251532Z 07013KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV012 M01/M01 A2997 RMK A02
  19. looks like the dry slot has developed as modeled eating away at the precip over MO into SE IA convection around the OH river isn't helping matters as far as moisture transport north 9am obs indicate light snow on the NW edge of the precip shield over I-72 area in central IL it may actually stay just south of me or at best get briefly clipped for a time some signs of "speckled" echoes developing over SE IA and western IL...likely light sleet ..we have to see if this is a start of a "refill" of the dry slot area
  20. 2 to 3 tenths of an inch of ice common around the area...nothing major or extreme a few tree limbs down here and there we prob lost a some icing with sleet at the start untreated areas of course very slick warmed up and scrapped my car around 10am just came back in... no new icing on the windows The infamous thin tongue warming Macomb which is WSW is 32 Bloomington which is ESE is 32 PEORIA LGT RAIN 33
  21. 90% of the time a thin tongue of warmer air somehow creeps in from the SE and the event ends sooner than expected , at least for the city This is especially true for daytime events... I recall many times tracking these things and noticing the temp in Lincoln has gone from 31 to 34 in the past two hours before you know it the airport is 33 and rain .I can't explain why...maybe just luck .. now there has been some huge ice storms further south along I-72 over the years including ones on the northern edge a an Ohio River event and ones staying all ZR down there for a system while we got snow
  22. so far not much new watch URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 521 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 120 PM CST THU DEC 31 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL 900 PM CST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD ADVANCE NORTH-NORTHEAST, WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE LINE.
  23. 0400 PM SNOW MORRIS 41.36N 88.42W 12/29/2020 E2.0 INCH GRUNDY IL EMERGENCY MNGR SNOWFALL OVER THE PAST HOUR.
  24. going to be a long day Sat/radar showing discrete storms developing over the gulf stream off GA and SC moving NNE towards eastern NC as modeled