Tim from Springfield (IL)

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Everything posted by Tim from Springfield (IL)

  1. With the Atlantic hurricane season now expected to have at least 25 named storms, and the heat wave earlier this summer in Siberia, is it just me or does anyone else think that COVID-19 (the virus itself and the effects) might actually be altering the weather this year? This article thinks so and is using the early Arctic ice melt as an example: https://news.mongabay.com/2020/06/climate-conundrum-could-covid-19-be-linked-to-early-arctic-ice-melt/
  2. And another D0 parked directly over St. Louis city and County, and most of St. Charles County, MO. Plus between Detroit and Toledo, and in western IA and western KY. Also a large D1 in Minnesota.
  3. Not even a marginal risk in this area and the pulse-type storms are already spawning a mini-severe outbreak in central IL. TOG southwest of Taylorville, IL. Decatur in crosshairs if it continues on its path: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Lincoln IL 615 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020 The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Christian County in central Illinois... * Until 645 PM CDT. * At 614 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Harvel, or 5 miles southwest of Morrisonville, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * The tornado will be near... Morrisonville around 625 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Palmer.
  4. Is it possible that SPC's 2000Z forecast may upgrade a narrow part of the ENH area to either a hatched TOR area, and/or a MDT risk? If so, I say probably mostly north of I-80 and along/E of IL-26
  5. Severe Thunderstorm Watch just also issued in the last few minutes for Eastern Illinois (roughly along and east of US-51, including Decatur) and Western IN. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0192.html
  6. I updated the end date to Tuesday (May 19) since WPC keeps a Marginal Excessive Rainfall risk for SE IN/S OH into Tuesday in its Day 3 outlook: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=3
  7. Severe Thunderstorm Warning south of Jacksonville, IL in northern Greene County. Thunderstorms have been moving into western Illinois (moving NNE) the last few hours. Also some good storms (nothing severe yet) northeast and east of STL. It wouldn't surprise me if the 2000Z Day 1 extends the Marginal in Iowa to also include parts of MO and possibly most of IL. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service St Louis MO 220 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020 The National Weather Service in St Louis has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Greene County in southwestern Illinois... * Until 300 PM CDT. * At 220 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near White Hall, moving northeast at 10 mph. HAZARD...Quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. * Locations impacted include... White Hall, Carrollton, Roodhouse, Patterson, Hillview, Walkersville, Belltown, Berdan, Haypress and Barrow.
  8. The latest Day 2 for tomorrow extends the slight back to central OH, and marginal to C/S IN. Also a 5/30/15 Enhanced north of NYC: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html ...Northeast States and Ohio Valley regions... Shortwave trough now situated over ND near the international border will continue into the Great Lakes Friday, reaching the northeast states later Friday afternoon and evening. A low amplitude impulse may precede this feature. By late afternoon the accompanying cold front should extend from a surface low in upstate NY southwest into the lower Great Lakes and OH Valley. Warm front will extend from the surface low through southern New England. Modest low-level moisture with upper 50s to around 60 F dewpoints will advect through the pre-frontal warm sector and contribute to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE as the surface layer warms during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along and ahead of the front by early to mid afternoon within the weakly capped, destabilizing warm sector. A mid-level jet within the base of the approaching shortwave trough will contribute to 35-45 kt effective bulk shear over the northeast U.S. supporting organized storms including a few supercells and bowing segments with damaging wind the main threat. The low-level jet is forecast to strengthen by late afternoon into early evening across the northeast U.S. with 0-1 km hodographs becoming sufficient for isolated tornadoes, especially with any storms interacting with the warm front across southern New England. Farther west across OH, deep-layer shear will be weaker, but wind profiles with 40-45 kt flow in the 700-500 mb layer will be supportive of a few damaging wind gusts as the boundary layer destabilizes during the afternoon.
  9. I've already started a thread encompassing tomorrow's severe weather (plus in case tonight's marginal in W IL/E IA ramps up) through this weekend's heavy rain threat as the front stalls:
  10. Day 2 for tomorrow: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html ...Eastern Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley, Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Lower Great Lakes... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning in a low-level warm advection regime across parts of the mid MS Valley into the Midwest and lower Great Lakes. A weak mid-level perturbation associated with this convection should continue to shift eastward across these regions through the day. In its wake, a more amplified shortwave trough should progress over the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest by Thursday evening. At the surface, a weak low initially over IA Thursday morning should develop northeastward to lower MI by the early evening, with a warm front lifting northward across much of the Midwest/OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes. A trailing cold front across the mid MS Valley into the central Plains is forecast to make only slow southeastward progress through the period. In the wake of the morning convection, low-level moistening, diurnal heating, and steepening mid-level lapse rates owing to an EML advecting eastward from the Plains will contribute to a destabilizing airmass by Thursday afternoon along/south of both the warm and cold fronts. Instability should be stronger from eastern KS into the mid MS Valley and perhaps IL, where MLCAPE may reach 2000-3000+ J/kg before convective initiation. Storms should form along/near the cold front by mid to late afternoon, with large-scale ascent possibly being aided by another weak mid-level perturbation. The stronger mid-level flow associated with the northern Plains/Upper Midwest shortwave trough may remain generally displaced to the north of the warm sector. Still, there should be enough of a veering/strengthening wind profile through the low/mid levels to support organized storms. Initial convective development along or just south of the front may pose a large hail threat given the steep mid-level lapse rates and marginal effective bulk shear values (around 30-35 kt) supporting occasional supercells. Although low-level flow is not forecast to be particularly strong, a couple tornadoes may also occur with these any semi-discrete storms. The Slight Risk has been expanded slightly northward across MO/IA/IL to account for better model agreement in the placement of the front Thursday afternoon. Damaging winds should become the primary threat with time as storms congeal into multiple east-southeastward moving clusters/bows through the evening. By late Thursday evening/overnight, this activity should weaken as it encounters increasing convective inhibition with southeastward extent across the warm sector. From roughly IN eastward into Lower MI and OH, low-level moisture and diurnal heating will probably remain more limited owing to morning convection. Still, enough instability should develop by late afternoon to pose some large hail/damaging wind threat along and south of the northward-moving warm front. Latest guidance suggests this front will probably extend across southern Lower MI by Thursday evening, with one or more clusters potentially moving eastward along or just south of this boundary. The Slight Risk for damaging winds has been extended eastward across more of northern/central IN, southern Lower MI, and into northwestern OH to account for this threat. Also Heavy Rain this weekend including in central Illinois. ILX's take:
  11. From ChicagoStorm in the general severe thread regarding tomorrow: "Tomorrow definitely holds potential, but all hinges on tonight/tomorrow mornings activity. SGT risk looks good for now, but could need upgrade to ENH in the morning once everything becomes clear." Going to take the bait and start a thread for the upcoming storm system including tomorrow's severe threat. This thread can also be a catch-all for other threats including the heavy rain expected in parts of the sub (especially MO/IL) through Sunday, as the system stalls. Today's threat far west of the sub but SPC's Day 1 has consistently had a marginal up to along and west of the Illinois River: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
  12. New Severe Thunderstorm Warning that now includes Springfield and southern Sangamon County: BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Lincoln IL 731 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020 The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Christian County in central Illinois... Southern Sangamon County in central Illinois... * Until 815 PM CDT. * At 730 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Loami, or 9 miles north of Virden, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...Quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. * Locations impacted include... Springfield, Taylorville, Chatham, Auburn, Rochester, Pawnee, Kincaid, Divernon, Edinburg, Loami, Bulpitt, Jeisyville, Southern View, Thayer, Tovey, Berry, Curran, Sangchris Lake State Park, Glenarm and Sharpsburg. This includes the following highways... Interstate 55 between mile markers 77 and 94. Interstate 72 between mile markers 94 and 100.
  13. More active than expected in Western Illinois today. Hoping that is not a precursor to tomorrow despite currently being in a Marginal Risk in central Illinois. Severe Thunderstorm Warning now immediately to my west for a rogue warned cell southwest of Jacksonville. If it continues to hold it could clip the south side of Springfield in about an hour: BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Lincoln IL 657 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020 The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Scott County in west central Illinois... Southwestern Sangamon County in central Illinois... Southeastern Morgan County in west central Illinois... * Until 745 PM CDT. * At 656 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Murrayville, or 7 miles east of Winchester, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. * Locations impacted include... Jacksonville, Alexander, New Berlin, Waverly, Loami, Franklin, Murrayville, Woodson, South Jacksonville, Thayer, Berlin, Lynnville, Nortonville, Lowder and Lake Jacksonville. This includes Interstate 72 between mile markers 57 and 69, and between mile markers 75 and 89.
  14. Now a SVR warned cell in far western Illinois, on track to affect areas between Macomb and Monmouth: Severe Thunderstorm Warning ILC067-071-109-187-112315- /O.NEW.KDVN.SV.W.0037.200411T2225Z-200411T2315Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL 525 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020 The National Weather Service in the Quad Cities has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Hancock County in west central Illinois... Southern Henderson County in west central Illinois... Southern Warren County in west central Illinois... Northern McDonough County in west central Illinois... * Until 615 PM CDT. * At 524 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Disco, or 12 miles north of Carthage, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...Quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. * Locations impacted include... Bushnell, La Harpe, Roseville, Dallas City, Blandinsville, Good Hope, Prairie City, Terre Haute, Raritan, Sciota, Colusa, Adrian, Little Swan Lake, Disco, Walnut Grove, Greenbush, Lomax, Scottsburg, Warren County Fairgrounds and Swan Creek.
  15. Very true. And we've had two close calls here already (Mar. 28 and Apr. 8). Plus MO/IL/IN/OH still very much in play for at least scattered strong/severe storms on Easter Sunday. LSX's AFD this afternoon is thinking that SPC needs to move the Marginal Risk farther north in their Day 2 outlook. If this happens, PIA and maybe Detroit and Chicago could be in play for strong/severe on Sunday: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LSX&issuedby=LSX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 This combination of factors will almost certainly bring widespread showers to the region on Sunday, and it looks like we`ll have sufficient instability to support at least embedded thunderstorms. Moreover, given strong system dynamics, a few strong to severe storms are possible. Given these parameters, I think SPC`s marginal risk is probably appropriate, though it may need to be pulled a bit farther north what is shown in the the current day 3 outlook.
  16. On the southern part of this system, SPC already has a Day 3 MDT and 45% hatched severe probs for parts of SE AR, Louisiana, MS, and AL on Easter Sunday. Very rare to see 45% probs on a Day 3, so Easter might be sadly a historic tornado/severe day in Dixie Alley. Slight risk currently includes far SE IL and SW IN. Marginal is currently roughly along and south of a COU-SPI-CMI-FWA-PKB line in this subforum. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html ...Mid MS Valley into the OH Valley... Destabilization in the vicinity of the primary surface low into the mid MS Valley/OH Valley is more uncertain, given the potential for disruptive convection further south. However, favorable wind profiles and closer proximity to the ejecting shortwave will support some severe thunderstorm threat in this region as well, with a conditional risk of all hazards given sufficient destabilization.
  17. Huge Day 2 update for tomorrow. Slight risk basically extended along/south of I-74 in Illinois--and a hatched for large hail (albeit still 2/15/15 probs at this time). Maybe at least an enhanced from NE MO/W IL to SE MO tomorrow. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2020 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of central Texas Wednesday afternoon and the Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday evening and overnight. Large hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are the primary hazard. ...Synopsis... A split-flow pattern is forecast to be in place across the CONUS early Wednesday morning. Primary features within this pattern will be a northern-stream shortwave trough, which is expected to progress southeastward through the northern Plain and Mid/Upper MS Valley, and a southern-stream closed low, which is expected to slowly drift eastward over southern CA. More pertinent to the severe weather threat, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to progress through the southern-stream over the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Confluence of the two streams will occur over the MS River Valley, with relatively strong flow aloft persisting, and then increasing late in the period, over the eastern CONUS. Primary feature within the surface pattern will be a cold front that is expected to surge southeastward from the northern Plains/upper MS Valley into the central Plains/mid MS Valley by Wednesday evening, continuing eastward/southeastward through the southern Plains, Mid-South, and TN/OH Valleys by Thursday morning. Moist southwesterly low-level flow will advect high theta-e air into the mid MS Valley ahead of this front while maintaining the moist air mass already in place from east TX through the Southeast. ...Mid MS Valley into portions of the OH/TN Valleys... A somewhat broad area of Slight-risk equivalent severe weather probabilities will exist over much of the region Wednesday. This is due to different model depictions of low-level moisture return, cap strength, and frontal timing as well as at least some modest risk for pre-frontal development. The general expectation is for thunderstorms to initialize along the front during the afternoon and then push southeastward throughout the evening. Initial storm mode will likely be cellular, with the thermodynamic and kinematic profiles supporting the threat for very large hail. Given the linear forcing, a quick linear transition is anticipated, with the severe threat also transitioning from hail to damaging wind gusts. Tornado threat will be non-zero, but relatively weak and veered low-level flow suggests low potential for development. The overall threat appears highest across northeast MO and adjacent western IL southeastward into southern IL and southeast MO although not high enough to delineate higher probabilities with this outlook. An upgrade may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a corridor of higher risk appears more likely. A more conditional severe threat exists south in AR, where frontal timing will be less favorable but more moist low-level conditions will exist. Any storm within this environment would likely be severe. ...TX Hill Country/Central TX... Low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis will likely provide enough ascent to foster thunderstorm initiation over the region during the afternoon. Thermodynamic environment will be characterized by ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s) beneath steep mid-level lapse rates. Resulting strong buoyancy coupled with deep-layer shear around 40-50 kt should be more than supportive for organized storm structures. Initial threat will be large hail, with some instances of very large hail possible. The initially cellular mode will likely transition more linear quickly, with the primary threat then transitioning to damaging downburst winds resulting from water-loaded downdrafts. An initial supercell mode will also result in a low-probability threat for an isolated tornado, although low-level winds do not appear overly favorable for low-level rotation. ...Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic... Residual boundaries from antecedent showers and thunderstorms will likely act as an impetus for additional convective initiation Wednesday afternoon. Relatively deep and strong northwesterly flow aloft would likely support organized storm structures and an attendant severe weather threat. Mesoscale nature of this threat precludes any corridors of higher potential on this outlook, but updgrades may be needed in following outlooks once mesoscale features become more predictable. ..Mosier.. 04/07/2020
  18. I took the plunge and started a thread for tonight thru Wednesday's possible severe action in parts of the sub:
  19. Far southern portions of the sub, including PAH, Evansville and Louisville, also in play for severe on Wednesday: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html ...Mid MS Valley into parts of the OH/TN Valleys... Models are showing a plume of steep 700-500mb lapse rates extending from the central Great Plains eastward into the lower OH Valley ahead of the amplifying upper trough. This model guidance indicates a residual moisture reservoir (featuring 60s F dewpoints), located over the lower MS Valley and TN Valley, will contribute to moderate destabilization. Frontal forcing will seemingly focus storm development during the late afternoon/early evening over the mid MS Valley region. Strong mid- to high-level westerly flow will favor organized storms. As convective coverage increases during the evening, a squall line with an accompanying risk for damaging gusts will move east-southeast with the threat probably extending through the evening and into the overnight hours.
  20. Huge change this afternoon to tomorrow's Day 2 slight, now it covers basically STL eastward to the Mid-Atlantic, including roughly I-72 southward in Illinois: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html ...The Ohio Valley Region and vicinity... Morning convection -- and possibly some accompanying severe potential -- should be ongoing over the Ohio vicinity, and will shift southeastward across the central Appalachians through the morning in tandem with a mid-level vort max. Subsidence aloft in the wake of this feature -- within background ridging -- should maintain a capping inversion, which should hinder new convective development through the day ahead of a weak/advancing front/wind shift, associated with the next in a series of mid-level vorticity maxima progressing through west-northwesterly flow aloft. At this time, degree and timing of new storm development over the Ohio Valley remains quite uncertain, but current thinking is that scattered to isolated storms should develop along the weak boundary, from lower Michigan southwestward to Missouri, with the first storms possibly initiating by around sunset. Convection would then spread east-southeastward with time across the Ohio Valley states, gradually increasing in coverage with time. Given steep lapse rates aloft, instability will support vigorous updrafts -- aided by the moderately strong west-northwesterlies through a deep layer. Along with potential for large hail, damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly if storms can grow upscale locally into line segments/clusters. The storms should continue through the overnight hours in an east-northeast to west-southwest band, crossing the central Appalachians and possibly moving into the Tennessee Valley through the end of the period.
  21. Not sure if the next three days warrant a separate severe thread but this was prompted by huge changes this afternoon to tomorrow's Day 2 outlook. The narrow marginal risk for today from the LOT CWA to NW OH remains intact at this time. Also a marginal in C/W Minnesota too: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html ...Great Lakes including portions of IL/IN/OH and Lower MI... Scattered thunderstorms are still expected to develop this evening, initially across northern Illinois and the southern Lake Michigan vicinity, and subsequently expand and develop eastward across other parts of the region through the overnight. This activity will be focused along/just north of a northward-advancing warm front as low-level warm/moist advection increases. In an environment characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg in the presence of 30-45 kt effective-shear, the more robust elevated updrafts may produce occasionally severe hail. A seemingly less certain risk of locally damaging winds cannot be ruled out, particularly if storm mergers/organization occurs in immediate proximity of the surface warm front. ...Eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota... Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by evening across parts of the region, influenced by weak height falls and increasing warm advection related to an amplifying trough over the Canadian prairies. While the overall environment will not be particularly moist, given steep mid-level lapse rates and ample shear through the cloud-bearing layer, it is conceivable that a couple of the stronger storms could produce hail to near severe levels tonight.
  22. IMO, even the wording of both the local area forecast for Sangamon County and their point-and-click for my location (Chatham, IL) both make it appear that ILX doesn't seem impressed about this storm threat, at least for this area. Their current Sangamon County forecast for tomorrow: "Warmer. Rain showers and thunderstorms." No mention of severe yet. Point and click only shows the generic "showers and thunderstorms" with no severe mention either. That doesn't sound like "enhanced/moderate risk for severe" to me. It was worse earlier today: "Rain showers and some thunderstorms." That especially doesn't scream "severe" to me; more like a "few showers with a rumble of thunder or two." Either ILX's forecasting is a joke, or they're seeing something for this area that we and the other models/NWS offices are not. I'm sure tomorrow's morning ILX HWO will have the "conference call for emergency managers" statement at the end of the outlook, for sometime late in the morning for areas in at least the Enhanced risk. Maybe even some of the Slight areas too. Also, how much stock does anyone on here take in local TV weathercast "Futurecast radars." None of the ones I've seen on the three major newscasts in the Springfield/Decatur/Champaign market at 6PM seemed to put much activity (other than a few isolated cells) in the current MDT/hatched TOR area. It looked as if they wanted to get more isolated storms going roughly along and east of a STL-LaSalle line, with some intensifying and expanding in size. Not impressed with what I saw on local news tonight, even though they were emphasizing SPC's moderate risk prediction.
  23. The Northern IL Severe Weather blog's take on Saturday, including an interesting map: https://nilsevereweather.weebly.com/blogs-weather-updates/severe-weather-threat-increasing-across-illinois-on-saturday-all-hazards-possible-nisw?fbclid=IwAR3Fl2HpqFhOeBgOlPMxSpq_jdqNQJaRwm5oWerPGRYns_cBgLWV7S-s_ag The blogger also linked to the following SPC map image, including a radar image of long-tracked cells tracking straight northeast west and north of Peoria. With a serious-looking long-tracked cell shown from west of Canton to LaSalle-Peru. Plus some nasty cells over and just northeast of PIA:
  24. I went ahead and started a new thread for the late-week threats here in the sub, especially what may be the main event Saturday:
  25. Going to start a separate thread for the current end-of-week severe threats, especially what may be the big show in IL on Saturday (after the rare Day 3 afternoon update): https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Also, the 2:49 CDT Day 1 now has a slight entering the STL Metro East area in IL, with a narrow hatched hail area from E KS to E MO: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Most of the sub is in Marginal for Day 2 at this time: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html