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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    Some of the HAFS-B runs would disagree, but we'll see what happens.
  2. CheeselandSkies
  3. CheeselandSkies
    Based on what? Not the >300 hour GFS op again, right?
  4. CheeselandSkies
    The "I curse" is real, folks. Retirements since 2002: Isidore, Isabel, Ivan, Ike, Igor, Irene, Ingrid, Irma, Ida, Ian Now likely Idalia. Kind of ironic that 2005 didn't manage to retire an "I" name, but the infamous 2013 did.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    Fair enough.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    May not be much on the immediate coast but some of the hurricane model solutions would put the western eyewall over Tallahassee; with how fast this thing is going to be trucking inland I'd expect they would get a lot more wind than during Michael if those verified.
  7. CheeselandSkies
    I would wager 931 MB on the HWRF and 926 MB on the HAFS-B (both FH051) are not "strong Cat 3 to low-end Cat 4" verbatim. BTW, is there any other way to pronounce the new hurricane model besides "half-ass"? I can't think of one.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    I prefer to wait for the actual frame-by-frame model runs of the hurricane models (HAFS-A/B, HWRF, HMON) with MSLP, sim IR, etc.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    Where? All still the 06Z runs for me.
  10. CheeselandSkies
    The 12Z hurricane models aren't actually out yet, and won't be for another few hours.
  11. CheeselandSkies
    0Z HAFS-B gets it down to 929 MB (strongest non-fantasy range hurricane model output I've seen thus far) at FH057, but brings it back up a bit before landfall. All the hurricane models (and have for several runs) agree on a solid major hurricane, potentially a high-end (125kt+) one.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    I don't even want to imagine the shenanigans that would be possible with Franklin and Idalia both drifting around in the western Atlantic late in the coming week.
  13. CheeselandSkies
  14. CheeselandSkies
    18Z GFS with the casual 2MB/hr pressure drops continuing for 24 hours straight.
  15. CheeselandSkies
    12Z GFS down to 960 MB, deepening on approach. IMO surge risk to Big Bend is higher with this storm than any for a long time. The coast is sparsely populated, but if this does come in as a strong major and causes a swath of intense wind damage deep inland, as others pointed out it's all mobile homes and RV parks in there.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    HAFS-A is at 956 MB just offshore, at FH078. Next frame, at FH081, is at 954 MB well inland.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    Special Message from NHC Issued 26 Aug 2023 20:16 UTC NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Ten, located near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC).
  18. CheeselandSkies
    If the latest HWRF verifies (again, not saying this is the most likely solution); western Cuba is in for a solid hurricane in less than 48 hours. Then after that... Looks like last night's 0Z run was a glitch in the matrix for the famously bullish hurricane model. Both 12Z HAFS also go nuts.
  19. CheeselandSkies
    I wouldn't call it likely at this point but would be foolish to take anything off the table at this juncture.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    00Z HWRF is gonna be fun...985 MB already at FH054. Edit: Maybe not. Seems to be struggling with shear or something and still hovering in the 980s by midday Tuesday. I'm off to bed.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    Both are much further west (central to western Panhandle) and not as strong, but B would be a solid Cat. 1 and A a mid Cat. 2 at least with 967 MB just after landfall at FH111. Like HWRF that's also a large pressure drop in the 3 hours before landfall.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    IIRC Ida of 2021 was the one that was pretty well pegged as a dangerous Gulf major even as an invest. With Ian there was some initial thought that it would get left behind and limp into the Big Bend as an unraveling TS/minimal Cat. 1 at most. The intensity of Michael was very much a sneak attack. The lesson here again is "never count out a northward-moving Gulf storm with boiling waters in its path because it's too early to tell whether it will be destructively sheared or not."
  23. CheeselandSkies
    Even has it down to 959MB right on the coast at FH111...too bad there's not a sim IR frame for that FH.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    Somebody gets it.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    Special Marine Warnings out for the entirety of Lake Erie for winds and potential waterspouts.
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