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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. It seems to me like NOAA's work overall has gone downhill over the course of the last ~10 years but accelerated over the last 5. Does this fit with your observations or do you think it runs longer than that? Is it over-reliance on modern high-res NWP (things like the HRRR and such are good tools, but even they miss a lot of stuff and/or forecast storms that don't happen, even at very short range like 5/20/19)? Is it politically motivated disinvestment/a shift toward the private sector leading the weather enterprise? Some combination thereof?
  2. I feel like the CPC outlooks posted just a few days ago or so were showing the complete opposite. Edit: Found 'em on ST Discord, yep, the one issued 5/22 was showing AA temps and precip for the Midwest 5/30-6/5.
  3. Kinda interesting that MKX can completely ignore a 3KM EHI >7 with 1KM SRH approaching 400 m2/s2 over portions of their CWA 54 hours out (on the 18Z NAM), even if there is the likelihood of strong capping. I feel like that office (my local one, so I read them the most) used to be staffed by severe geeks who would do very detailed discussions, but most of them have retired and now they just kind of gloss over threats (although granted, it has been quite a few years since we had a real high-ceiling one that actually materialized, so maybe they've just given up).
  4. So far, NAM forecast soundings for Monday show the same issue as Sunday...rock solid capping due to very warm and dry at 850mb...kind of ridiculous that we are having this issue even along/east of the Mississippi when normally our problem in the spring is that we can't get a proper Plains-style EML/dryline this far northeast. Edit: On second look, today's 12Z NAM is showing a few areas where the cap may potentially break Sunday evening. Still need to keep an eye on it.
  5. Man oh man, Sunday would be epic across a large part of the Plains and Midwest if not for that stupid cap. Monday holds more interest for me at this point, and possibly Tuesday depending on how the trough evolves.
  6. Today doing what yesterday was supposed to do out east:
  7. Also irritatingly close to where I was yesterday, although the timestamp on it was several hours earlier. I don't recall any warnings being issued around that time either, except the ones to the east in the Chicago 'burbs.
  8. Certainly a lot more lightning out there today than yesterday... Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  9. Seriously? Same area I was just in yesterday on the storm I left about an hour before it produced the Beloit tornado (post right above yours). The amount of trolling the atmosphere gives me is ridiculous. Doesn't appear a warning was ever issued on this.
  10. Here's yesterday's storm when it was passing northwest/west of Mt. Morris and Leaf River, IL, then a rainbow looking east from IL-26 somewhere near Freeport. A couple of locals got video and the tornado wasn't particularly photogenic, but always annoying to be on a storm and then leave it shortly before it produces.
  11. Today could be similar to yesterday in IL/WI. Learned my lesson and will stay home and see if anything approaches the state line. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0923.html
  12. Ugh. This was like a rinse/repeat of my last IL chase (April 30th, although at least that one actually had a tornado watch in effect), in which I initially targeted points east of I-39 but bailed on that after convection in that area failed to impress, intercepted new development further west that looked somewhat intriguing only for it to likewise lose organization as I got in position, followed it for a little while before breaking off and starting for home, only for it to become tornado warned near the WI/IL border when it was just out of my reach. This time I ended up going as far as Streator before looping around back to Ottawa and I-80. I was basically going home on I-39 when I noticed the somewhat vigorous cell between Dixon and Polo (which per my Radarscope was about the only thing producing lightning thus far all day, and had hints of a reflectivity hook and weak couplet), and jumped off on IL-72 then southwest on 2 from Byron then west on Mud Creek Road to Mt. Morris. The storm had some discernable structure but it appeared to be mostly outflow in nature (a bowing gust front/shelf cloud) and the hints of supercellular radar signatures had largely disappeared by the time I reached it. Since the storm was moving NNE, I went north from Mt. Morris back to 72 then west to Forreston, punching through the rain and north on 26 towards home. I was approaching Freeport when I noticed that the storm was now tornado-warned in Winnebago County, with a noticeable couplet near Shirland, and another warning encompassing that and another little cell that had popped up out ahead of it into southern Rock County, WI. This was now about 20 miles to my east-northeast and would have required more backtracking, breakneck driving on back roads and punching through rain cores than I cared to do at this point. SPC's LSR page has some damage reports that would appear to be associated with this, although the timestamps are after the tornado warnings would have expired, and they are listed as wind damage. I never did see any word of spotter confirmation in the tornado warning texts, and they never were extended beyond their initial issuance, so we'll see what the surveys say.
  13. Still not so much as an MD for our region. Sitting in Ottawa, IL after aborting an attempt to get on the tail end of the cluster now near Hinckley, which started looking less interesting as I neared getting in position on it, per usual. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  14. That's why I'm desperation chasing an 11th hour 5% today.
  15. They actually trimmed it mostly out of Wisconsin. Surprise, surprise (supported by CAM solutions).
  16. Looking at the soundings, I'm not sure why the forecast risk isn't higher already unless it's the weak-ish mid level winds or uncertainties about moisture although 6Z HRRR and 3K NAM both have upper 60s to low 70s dews across IL tomorrow evening. HRRR has a fairly classic looking triple point setup and 3K NAM even has what appears to be a mesolow north of St. Louis.
  17. Just noticed that marginal area was pulled up into my neck of the woods on Day 2...Day 3 just had it in IL/IN. Day 4 (outlook issued Sunday) the 15% risk area was over SE TX/LA/MS...all of which has now been downgraded to marginal. LOL BROYLES. The wording of the day-2 outlook implies that a threat worthy of significantly greater categorical/probabilistic contours could materialize, but spread is just too high at this point.
  18. Haven't seen a drop here on the far west side, Storms training NNE just to my east. But my Bucks game keeps getting interrupted by warnings, mostly for other counties. Spectrum has got to get SAME technology, like weather radios have had for quite some time now. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  19. SVR EAS alert just interrupted my Bucks game on Spectrum... already more than happened yesterday ofc. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  20. SPC has MD out mentioning potential for landspouts over northern IL. There's currently a severe-warned cell nearly stationary over Peru/La Salle. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0724.html I'm planning to stay home in the A/C and watch the Bucks game.
  21. 4,000 j/kg of CAPE on May 10th and all we can manage is a slight risk cap bust.
  22. Quite a few earlier runs of the HRRR had a sup firing and tracking through some combination of Richland/Sauk/Columbia Counties with a robust UH streak from about 20-22Z. At the time I made that post, the latest couple runs (starting with the first one to come in after I left the house, go figure) dropped that and there was no sign of incipient CI in that area.
  23. Today is starting to reek of bust in southern WI. Storm of the day might end up being that one between Oelwein, IA and Prairie du Chien. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  24. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0708.html
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