Jonathan

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Everything posted by Jonathan

  1. Baby step in the right direction for the NAM, more precip but a long way from the HRRR/GFS/etc.
  2. Well there's your 200+ mile north shift on the GFS. Congrats Maryland!
  3. With the 0z/6z model suite, inside 36 hours, Virginia has been taken completely out of play. Absolutely unprecedented 100+ mile SOUTH shift on every single model. Congratulations GA, SC and NC. Unreal.
  4. I'm calling convective feedback issues here.
  5. https://imgur.com/X7KcMDp Not sure why this isn't translating to precip on the GFS.
  6. The SREF mean for Martinsville went from 1.81" at 9z to to 2.75" at 15z. Almost a full inch. Danville went from 1.62 to 2.63, just over a full inch.
  7. Jamey Singleton on Twitter: "This doesn't make sense to me. But it's off the same model (GFS). The Euro does it, too. Brings the moisture and dynamics in, with nothing to show as a result. I'm not buying those snow amounts. #vawx #ncwx https://t.co/hvbZNI3dcP" / Twitter Interesting tweet from a local met here in southern VA.
  8. I can't believe we just watched the Euro cave to the GFS. Is this 2020?
  9. Is it me or has this thing shifted from overnight Thursday into Friday to mid-day Friday into Friday night? THAT'S definitely not a good trend.
  10. Maybe by the time the GFS gets to v50 it'll be a semi-reliable weather model.
  11. Yeah, absolutely what we need to focus on. Everyone's just excited because it's been so long. WxTwitter going bonkers with huge dreams for the upcoming pattern and us weenies are hungry. We have a setup, details will follow of course.
  12. Also, TT shows a lot of rain where on WxBell it's snow. Looks wonky on TT for whatever reason.
  13. Kinda paltry precip shield on top. Would think some Atlantic moisture would help that.
  14. Per usual, the S VA crew will be praying for a NW trend to commence over the next couple of days.
  15. Hello darkness my old friend. This is where we'll stay again this winter.
  16. I think if nothing else, this winter will prove that the Pacific is much more important than the Atlantic. First -NAO we've had in a decade and it's ruined by a +EPO. We can get winter storms with a +NAO/-EPO by threading the needle but we can't even get a needle to thread with the opposite. Bummer. At least some folks had white grass for Christmas.
  17. Had a rogue band of sleet come through about 12:30am, woke up at 7:00am to freezing rain and hasn't changed. 31F Freezing Rain
  18. The GFS warms up everyone so quick. The entire southern half of VA and all of NC are all above 32F by 18-21z. Wild with this setup.
  19. 18Z GFS keeps the low over land. Destroys the CAD. Barrelling right through the HP, even with a stout HP, a 50/50 low and a -NAO/-AO regime. Literally the best set of ingredients we've had since 2009-2010. Like what do we have to do?
  20. Man, the EURO op is just not impressed at all.
  21. Looking more and more like a significant foothills ice storm. Yikes.
  22. Someone mentioned the ICON. (I know, it's the ICON but we're looking for trends here lol) It has came in colder at least 4 runs in a row and it has weakened the northern energy a tick each time. Would love to see that SLP trend weaker on other models today.