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Everything posted by Jonathan

  1. At least for southern VA, the precip is beginning to fill back in to the south and west. Several more hours of freezing drizzle look possible, which would accrue much faster than the heavy batch that came through this morning. The upper energy is still way out west. Plus we still have the evening batch of freezing rain. Don't think we're out of the woods at all yet.
  2. Soundings still scream ZR though. Would really love a sleet storm but just don't see it happening.
  3. I honestly hate even looking at any maps for this one. It's like getting punched in the gut while I'm still reeling from the left hook from Friday-Saturday. Lot of folks here still without power. We're in the bullseye yet again. Praying for more sleet or at least heavier rain so it'll be harder to accumulate. Feels helpless basically KNOWING I'm gonna get clocked and there's nothing I can do about it. Can't even find any generators around here. Contemplated going to the OBX, as I'm off work Thursday thru Monday anyway.
  4. Absolutely. I'm at 53, forecast high was 48, HRRR showed 48 for me currently. Think a lot of folks expecting snow are going to be in the whining thread, myself included, tonight!
  5. Baby step in the right direction for the NAM, more precip but a long way from the HRRR/GFS/etc.
  6. Dang, already on to our next failure.
  7. Well there's your 200+ mile north shift on the GFS. Congrats Maryland!
  8. With the 0z/6z model suite, inside 36 hours, Virginia has been taken completely out of play. Absolutely unprecedented 100+ mile SOUTH shift on every single model. Congratulations GA, SC and NC. Unreal.
  9. I'm calling convective feedback issues here.
  10. Not sure why this isn't translating to precip on the GFS.
  11. The SREF mean for Martinsville went from 1.81" at 9z to to 2.75" at 15z. Almost a full inch. Danville went from 1.62 to 2.63, just over a full inch.
  12. Jamey Singleton on Twitter: "This doesn't make sense to me. But it's off the same model (GFS). The Euro does it, too. Brings the moisture and dynamics in, with nothing to show as a result. I'm not buying those snow amounts. #vawx #ncwx" / Twitter Interesting tweet from a local met here in southern VA.
  13. I can't believe we just watched the Euro cave to the GFS. Is this 2020?
  14. Is it me or has this thing shifted from overnight Thursday into Friday to mid-day Friday into Friday night? THAT'S definitely not a good trend.
  15. Maybe by the time the GFS gets to v50 it'll be a semi-reliable weather model.
  16. Yeah, absolutely what we need to focus on. Everyone's just excited because it's been so long. WxTwitter going bonkers with huge dreams for the upcoming pattern and us weenies are hungry. We have a setup, details will follow of course.
  17. Also, TT shows a lot of rain where on WxBell it's snow. Looks wonky on TT for whatever reason.
  18. Kinda paltry precip shield on top. Would think some Atlantic moisture would help that.
  19. Per usual, the S VA crew will be praying for a NW trend to commence over the next couple of days.
  20. Hello darkness my old friend. This is where we'll stay again this winter.
  21. I think if nothing else, this winter will prove that the Pacific is much more important than the Atlantic. First -NAO we've had in a decade and it's ruined by a +EPO. We can get winter storms with a +NAO/-EPO by threading the needle but we can't even get a needle to thread with the opposite. Bummer. At least some folks had white grass for Christmas.
  22. Had a rogue band of sleet come through about 12:30am, woke up at 7:00am to freezing rain and hasn't changed. 31F Freezing Rain