Jonathan
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Everything posted by Jonathan
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Hot take: the proper use of the term as we use it is "ensemble" ie, the GFS ensemble. NOT ensembleS.
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Still a lot of football left, but I'm a Titans fan and this is kinda crazy.
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Oh, ok. I didn't realize that was op vs ens. For sure on the ensemble. Let's keep the good juju flowing!
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Soooo, which is it?
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Mother nature doesn't care who "wins" in snowfall. Signed, I got 16" today. You guys can have the next one, unless it's on Christmas, in which case we'll take that one too and you guys can have the next one...
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Yeah I thought the NAM done great. RDU coming out pretty good! Congrats Brick and others!
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Euro was an absolute paste bomb for western NC all the way through SWVA. Roanoke VA 12" Martinsville 20" Greensboro 17" Hickory 20" Wilkesboro 20" Wake County 5-13" from SE to NW Charlotte 7-10" from SE to NW
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I second this nomination!
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12z FV3?
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Meh, I get sleeted on too sometimes. If we lose the EURO this afternoon, it's officially worry time for real. Currently hugging the 3k NAM/RGEM/CMC/ICON...that's perfectly reasonable, right?!
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Seriously though, are we still in this? I mean I'm further south than you but I still cant help but to feel it's slipping away. Guess for SWVA it's 3K NAM/ICON/RGEM vs 12K NAM and the globals?
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dat 3K NAM tho
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I'm just really depressed this morning. Going to call out of work and drink.
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GFS ensemble is hundreds of miles south. Hundreds.
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Eh, I think we'll like the outcome of the FV3 actually. It has a very long duration event.
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We'll bathe in your NC tears come Monday. Enjoy your sleet.
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Well that GFS run should drag you back to reality! Zero precip north of NC. Unreal.
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I counted 5 negatives in there. I think 2 cancel each other out which leaves 1 negative, 1 undetermined and 1 positive. So everything's going according to plan. Except Brick's 6"+ Good deal. Hopefully the precip doesn't underperform like the NAM's massive fail out in OK/TX. That was absolutely brutal. Also the 850 temps are crazy borderline. Bet I sleet down here closer to the NC border.
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Man, with a winter storm impending you CAN'T miss a few hours on this board. It's great though. So much info. I need a quick recap! @Buddy1987 @Disc we still in for this baby in SW VA?
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Reading back on that...good Lord...absolutely terrifying. I think EVERYONE needs to go back and read that.
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Couple of models now showing that...hope that's not a trend
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R.I.P. to the entire 18z GFS suite, old and new. But damn if the FV3 isn't lookin' like a snack!
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Much lighter precip in W NC and S VA this time around.
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Dew points are 4+ degrees colder in a lot of places on the NAM
