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Jonathan

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Everything posted by Jonathan

  1. Jonathan
    I'm calling convective feedback issues here.
  2. Jonathan
    https://imgur.com/X7KcMDp Not sure why this isn't translating to precip on the GFS.
  3. Jonathan
    Yes.
  4. Jonathan
    The SREF mean for Martinsville went from 1.81" at 9z to to 2.75" at 15z. Almost a full inch. Danville went from 1.62 to 2.63, just over a full inch.
  5. Jonathan
    Jamey Singleton on Twitter: "This doesn't make sense to me. But it's off the same model (GFS). The Euro does it, too. Brings the moisture and dynamics in, with nothing to show as a result. I'm not buying those snow amounts. #vawx #ncwx https://t.co/hvbZNI3dcP" / Twitter Interesting tweet from a local met here in southern VA.
  6. Jonathan
    I can't believe we just watched the Euro cave to the GFS. Is this 2020?
  7. Jonathan
    Is it me or has this thing shifted from overnight Thursday into Friday to mid-day Friday into Friday night? THAT'S definitely not a good trend.
  8. Jonathan
    Maybe by the time the GFS gets to v50 it'll be a semi-reliable weather model.
  9. Jonathan
    Yeah, absolutely what we need to focus on. Everyone's just excited because it's been so long. WxTwitter going bonkers with huge dreams for the upcoming pattern and us weenies are hungry. We have a setup, details will follow of course.
  10. Jonathan
    Also, TT shows a lot of rain where on WxBell it's snow. Looks wonky on TT for whatever reason.
  11. Jonathan
    Kinda paltry precip shield on top. Would think some Atlantic moisture would help that.
  12. Jonathan
    Per usual, the S VA crew will be praying for a NW trend to commence over the next couple of days.
  13. Jonathan
    Hello darkness my old friend. This is where we'll stay again this winter.
  14. Jonathan
    I think if nothing else, this winter will prove that the Pacific is much more important than the Atlantic. First -NAO we've had in a decade and it's ruined by a +EPO. We can get winter storms with a +NAO/-EPO by threading the needle but we can't even get a needle to thread with the opposite. Bummer. At least some folks had white grass for Christmas.
  15. Jonathan
    Had a rogue band of sleet come through about 12:30am, woke up at 7:00am to freezing rain and hasn't changed. 31F Freezing Rain
  16. Jonathan
    The GFS warms up everyone so quick. The entire southern half of VA and all of NC are all above 32F by 18-21z. Wild with this setup.
  17. Jonathan
    18Z GFS keeps the low over land. Destroys the CAD. Barrelling right through the HP, even with a stout HP, a 50/50 low and a -NAO/-AO regime. Literally the best set of ingredients we've had since 2009-2010. Like what do we have to do?
  18. Jonathan
    Man, the EURO op is just not impressed at all.
  19. Jonathan
    Looking more and more like a significant foothills ice storm. Yikes.
  20. Jonathan
    Someone mentioned the ICON. (I know, it's the ICON but we're looking for trends here lol) It has came in colder at least 4 runs in a row and it has weakened the northern energy a tick each time. Would love to see that SLP trend weaker on other models today.
  21. Jonathan
    2 SE winter storms back2back at 200+hrs on the 18z op GFS #lockitin
  22. Jonathan
    Grit, I don't know much about the AAM aside from some quick online research, but wouldn't a huge spike in the AAM like is being shown on the EPS be bad for a long-term colder pattern in the east? Seems so from what I've read. Also the EPO is always shown to dive negative but the brakes are always pumped as we get closer. Seems like every year we add a new oscillation/anomaly/abbreviation that ruins our winters. lol
  23. Jonathan
    Hot take: the proper use of the term as we use it is "ensemble" ie, the GFS ensemble. NOT ensembleS.
  24. Jonathan
    Still a lot of football left, but I'm a Titans fan and this is kinda crazy.
  25. Jonathan
    Oh, ok. I didn't realize that was op vs ens. For sure on the ensemble. Let's keep the good juju flowing!
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