Jonathan
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Everything posted by Jonathan
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Well, that was fun while it lasted!
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Well there's your 200+ mile north shift on the GFS. Congrats Maryland!
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With the 0z/6z model suite, inside 36 hours, Virginia has been taken completely out of play. Absolutely unprecedented 100+ mile SOUTH shift on every single model. Congratulations GA, SC and NC. Unreal.
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I'm calling convective feedback issues here.
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https://imgur.com/X7KcMDp Not sure why this isn't translating to precip on the GFS.
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Yes.
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The SREF mean for Martinsville went from 1.81" at 9z to to 2.75" at 15z. Almost a full inch. Danville went from 1.62 to 2.63, just over a full inch.
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Jamey Singleton on Twitter: "This doesn't make sense to me. But it's off the same model (GFS). The Euro does it, too. Brings the moisture and dynamics in, with nothing to show as a result. I'm not buying those snow amounts. #vawx #ncwx https://t.co/hvbZNI3dcP" / Twitter Interesting tweet from a local met here in southern VA.
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I can't believe we just watched the Euro cave to the GFS. Is this 2020?
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Is it me or has this thing shifted from overnight Thursday into Friday to mid-day Friday into Friday night? THAT'S definitely not a good trend.
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Maybe by the time the GFS gets to v50 it'll be a semi-reliable weather model.
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Yeah, absolutely what we need to focus on. Everyone's just excited because it's been so long. WxTwitter going bonkers with huge dreams for the upcoming pattern and us weenies are hungry. We have a setup, details will follow of course.
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Also, TT shows a lot of rain where on WxBell it's snow. Looks wonky on TT for whatever reason.
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Kinda paltry precip shield on top. Would think some Atlantic moisture would help that.
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Per usual, the S VA crew will be praying for a NW trend to commence over the next couple of days.
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Hello darkness my old friend. This is where we'll stay again this winter.
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I think if nothing else, this winter will prove that the Pacific is much more important than the Atlantic. First -NAO we've had in a decade and it's ruined by a +EPO. We can get winter storms with a +NAO/-EPO by threading the needle but we can't even get a needle to thread with the opposite. Bummer. At least some folks had white grass for Christmas.
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2 SE winter storms back2back at 200+hrs on the 18z op GFS #lockitin
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Hot take: the proper use of the term as we use it is "ensemble" ie, the GFS ensemble. NOT ensembleS.
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Still a lot of football left, but I'm a Titans fan and this is kinda crazy.
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Mother nature doesn't care who "wins" in snowfall. Signed, I got 16" today. You guys can have the next one, unless it's on Christmas, in which case we'll take that one too and you guys can have the next one...
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Yeah I thought the NAM done great. RDU coming out pretty good! Congrats Brick and others!
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Euro was an absolute paste bomb for western NC all the way through SWVA. Roanoke VA 12" Martinsville 20" Greensboro 17" Hickory 20" Wilkesboro 20" Wake County 5-13" from SE to NW Charlotte 7-10" from SE to NW
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I second this nomination!
