Tar Heel Snow

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About Tar Heel Snow

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    Chapel Hill, NC

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  1. several other tweets on his profile show that JMA has been really really accurate out to 2 weeks for the past month or so. A sign of hope perhaps.
  2. For sure! You never know. Just discouraging, but we can stay hopeful!
  3. This is just...sad. I figured I’d at least get a flake this year. Crazy things can happen but, oof.
  4. Perfect, we need to cool those ground temps before we get anything!
  5. 0z GFS brings back some ZR/Sleet action
  6. GFS stays with the interesting pattern for sometime between the 16th and the 20th. Good to see that at least hanging on this run.
  7. Call it unrealistic, but the late hours of the GFS throws VA/North-Central NC a bone. First time we’ve seen anything, even in the long range, in a couple of weeks. Fits the relative pattern the CFS has shown over the past few runs of the pattern changing at the tail end of January. Something to (hopefully) watch! Edit: The GEFS average at the same time has most of NC and a good chunk of eastern SC with at least a bit of snow accumulation.
  8. Well we haven't had a chance to see a clown map in awhile, so here you go from today's morning CFS one month out. This is exactly what this model should be used for and everyone should take it verbatim!
  9. 18z GFS seems to have completely lost the weak wave for next Tuesday. Go figure.
  10. I’d love to see the EPS members in the coming days. Tail end of today’s 12z Euro looked intriguing.
  11. I think it would be fascinating to somehow quantify how data access and availability changes our perception about weather. I'm sure if the Euro and other models went out to 384 hrs like the GFS does, it would be just as bad. At the same time, the fact that OP models are mostly free and easy to access makes it so that more people can see them and more easily take the extremes they may bring seriously, particularly when it comes to the GFS. Tropical Tidbits and similar sites make shiny and fun maps so easy to come by in the long range that it can cloud our perceptions. Pivotal recently made more ECMWF data free, but most data from it and all the ensembles are behind pay walls. If it were the other way around and the Euro/the full range of the EPS, GEFS, etc. were free and easily accessed, I would be willing to bet we'd have different conversations on this site. That's not to criticize the data being behind paywalls, people deserve to make money, but since that's the reality, it limits the conversations most of us can have (aside from screenshots from some generous posters in this thread) to long range GFS OP runs.
  12. Lol just give it a few thousand years and you won’t have to worry about the mountains!