Tar Heel Snow

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    Central Washington, DC

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  1. Yeah after being disappointed by many a North Carolina storm, I’ve learned that when the NAM sniffs out a warm nose to never doubt it. I’d hoped maybe DC’s climo would maybe make up for some of it, but oof. I’ve learned my lesson again for a new place! Guess I have to move to Canada. But yeah, the dryness is very frustrating.
  2. Been lightly snowing with small flakes for the past hour or so here in the District. The fact that there's still snow covering the ground and flakes in the sky is an absolute win in my book having just moved from Raleigh. Most snow I've seen since we had about a foot 3 years ago down there.
  3. El oh el. This latest threat verbatim with models now blankets where I am now and then snow holes DC...where I'm moving this weekend. I think i've been the bad luck charm this whole time SE friends, please accept my sincerest apologies.
  4. I’m literally moving to DC on Tuesday from Raleigh, this one’s on me! And I thought OUR snow hole was bad...
  5. Just getting caught up here, so apologies if this has been mentioned, but ratios also will be down, maybe 5:1. I think a LOT of this storm is going to have to wait until the final hours just to get a handle on where strong bands will set up and to narrow down p types.
  6. I figured I might as well fire up the thread just in time for the 12z Euro! Get your chainsaws ready, and let’s see what the first real track of winter brings us!
  7. Great point, I think there’s still time for things to trend our way, but I also have a hard time trusting thermals on globals, especially this far out. Especially when it’s the CMC. It’s not too far out from NAM range, and I’d like to see what it looks like when it gets its hands on temp profiles throughout the different layers of the atmosphere. It doesn’t have the feel of an outside-the-mountains/foothills type storm, but there’s still time I suppose. Either way, the ceiling is probably low.
  8. I'm just gonna allow myself to enjoy this for a bit before I go back to reality
  9. First GFS weenie run clown map in QUITE some time.
  10. Welp. Back to waiting for the next clown map. I see few on here deceived to even venture on. Lol are we all that burned by last year?
  11. Based on the NAM run, not really looking forward to the GFS this time
  12. This afternoon's runs are my needed dose of seratonin
  13. That makes sense, thanks! I've been trying to wean myself off of the whole "just look at the precip type maps" thing especially that far out because they tell you so little. Especially as I try to learn more about what you can learn from the other maps. But as for my specific question, that's definitely really helpful. And good overall guidance too!
  14. Wasn't sure where to post this (and wanted to hear from folks who are more well-versed in weather in our area), but what's the reason that a system like the one starting over Texas at the beginning of this gif pushes off northeast rather than "digging down" over the SE as I've heard on this forum over the years? What's steering this? the high in Quebec? What would it take to make something like this go favorably for us?
  15. Even at 384 hrs, the heartbreak gradient is still there!