Tar Heel Snow

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Everything posted by Tar Heel Snow

  1. Just getting caught up here, so apologies if this has been mentioned, but ratios also will be down, maybe 5:1. I think a LOT of this storm is going to have to wait until the final hours just to get a handle on where strong bands will set up and to narrow down p types.
  2. I figured I might as well fire up the thread just in time for the 12z Euro! Get your chainsaws ready, and let’s see what the first real track of winter brings us!
  3. Great point, I think there’s still time for things to trend our way, but I also have a hard time trusting thermals on globals, especially this far out. Especially when it’s the CMC. It’s not too far out from NAM range, and I’d like to see what it looks like when it gets its hands on temp profiles throughout the different layers of the atmosphere. It doesn’t have the feel of an outside-the-mountains/foothills type storm, but there’s still time I suppose. Either way, the ceiling is probably low.
  4. I'm just gonna allow myself to enjoy this for a bit before I go back to reality
  5. First GFS weenie run clown map in QUITE some time.
  6. Welp. Back to waiting for the next clown map. I see few on here deceived to even venture on. Lol are we all that burned by last year?
  7. Based on the NAM run, not really looking forward to the GFS this time
  8. This afternoon's runs are my needed dose of seratonin
  9. That makes sense, thanks! I've been trying to wean myself off of the whole "just look at the precip type maps" thing especially that far out because they tell you so little. Especially as I try to learn more about what you can learn from the other maps. But as for my specific question, that's definitely really helpful. And good overall guidance too!
  10. Wasn't sure where to post this (and wanted to hear from folks who are more well-versed in weather in our area), but what's the reason that a system like the one starting over Texas at the beginning of this gif pushes off northeast rather than "digging down" over the SE as I've heard on this forum over the years? What's steering this? the high in Quebec? What would it take to make something like this go favorably for us?
  11. Even at 384 hrs, the heartbreak gradient is still there!
  12. Oh to be a bird flying in the middle of a hurricane!
  13. I'm sorry but this board is my favorite thing. You've got people arguing about small changes to intensity, you've got people arguing about radar, you've got people who are trying to get people to stop arguing, you've got people just making jokes, you've got awesome real analysis, you've got great chances to learn, and you've got people posting about arguments that happened 15 minutes ago because they just don't read what's happened since the last time the page refreshed. Y'all are great. Carry on, and stay safe.
  14. Reading anything about the sun and kooky weather stuff just gives me flashbacks to sun angle posts for winter storms in the SE forum
  15. At least Rutherford traded Jack Johnso—oh wait. Kappy being back is nice though
  16. Not to take away from the analysis, but some time when we’re not all focused on a storm, I’d love someone to make or link to a tutorial on how to read all these data points in updates like this. I’ll hang up and keep listening and learning. Thanks everyone!
  17. Finally starting to stick to some mulch, cars, and roofs.
  18. That too yeah, shame, wasting some great snow rn! Pretty to look at though
  19. Been coming down awhile and none of the snow is sticking, I imagine that’s because it’s 36°?
  20. Has been snowing harder here at UNC for the past 10 minutes or so, nothing sticking yet. Visibility down for sure.
  21. Through moderate size flakes I just saw someone’s car get towed. That’s...just cruel
  22. Some extremely light rain mixing in here now, just enough to maybe wash away brine lol