Jonathan

Guess the old adage about the blind squirrel. I am happy to see over the past 24 hours the trend for more sleet and less zr for the foothills. I never got my hands on a generator before last winter's ice storm and I doubt I could get one this weekend either.

That's a shame. A local met around here said he used the FV3 for the December 2018 storm and it was almost spot-on with snow totals. He called it his "secret weapon" lol.

How much credence do we lend to the FV3? Because that's about the snowiest, less sleety/icy modelk for southern VA into norther NC. Isn't it a NAM upgrade?

You think we have a chance to hold on to sleet rather than freezing rain down towards Franklin and Patrick counties?

So maybe no snow into VA? Talk about going from talks of 1-2 feet of snow to all sleet and ice that's wild.

Wow, what an absolute dumpster fire train wreck the Euro is...unreal. holy trucking buckets it's bad.

Of course we finally get the GFS to lay down now the Euro is gonna amp up.

Actually, I...I think it is...what in the world lol cuts totals drastically.

GEFS 0z left 18z right

EPS Control run is nuts. And this is just the weekend system.

This is an example of CLT from Brad P, it's the same no matter what city you look at.

Can't believe we're still laughing at climate change in 2021, almost 2022.

Climate change.

If nothing else, I believe this winter will show us that the PNA is the most important teleconnection for anything even resembling wintertime in the east and especially the southeast. We've scored many a time without a -NAO/AO because of just enough ridging out west. We can't "win" without a +PNA period.

The upcoming pattern really goes to show that south of New England (and especially south of the mid-Atlantic) you literally need EVERY. SINGLE. INDEX. to be in your favor to get cold or snow. We have a MONSTER -NAO coming (ya know, the one they say is most important for SE wintry mischief), a MONSTER -EPO coming (ya know, the one they said would be the hardest to flip this winter), the MJO looking to move through phases 8-1-2 (ya know, the best cycle for SE wintry chances) but because of the ONE bad index, the -PNA, it all means squat to us for any shot of prolonged cold or even an outside shot at wintry precip. What does it take to kill the SE ridge? Seems like climate change has made that feature permanent at this point.

I believe the saying goes "close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades." Even with a -EPO and a mega -NAO we still flop in the winter department with persistent west coast troughing. Insane but not unexpected. Better luck next year, fingers crossed for a Nino to return.

Isn't there a way to link your Tempest with your profile here on this site? I swear I thought I'd seen someone's in their signature or something before.

At least for southern VA, the precip is beginning to fill back in to the south and west. Several more hours of freezing drizzle look possible, which would accrue much faster than the heavy batch that came through this morning. The upper energy is still way out west. Plus we still have the evening batch of freezing rain. Don't think we're out of the woods at all yet.

Soundings still scream ZR though. Would really love a sleet storm but just don't see it happening.

I honestly hate even looking at any maps for this one. It's like getting punched in the gut while I'm still reeling from the left hook from Friday-Saturday. Lot of folks here still without power. We're in the bullseye yet again. Praying for more sleet or at least heavier rain so it'll be harder to accumulate. Feels helpless basically KNOWING I'm gonna get clocked and there's nothing I can do about it. Can't even find any generators around here. Contemplated going to the OBX, as I'm off work Thursday thru Monday anyway.

Welp, it was nice knowing y'all!

Dang, already on to our next failure.

Well, that was fun while it lasted!

Well there's your 200+ mile north shift on the GFS. Congrats Maryland!

With the 0z/6z model suite, inside 36 hours, Virginia has been taken completely out of play. Absolutely unprecedented 100+ mile SOUTH shift on every single model. Congratulations GA, SC and NC. Unreal.