Jonathan

And I'll take your north shift and raise you one more. Just don't tell @Buddy1987 or @Disc !

Total whiff for everyone north of Raleigh and GSO. Congrats, guys! You finally get your big one! Long overdue for so many. Glad to see you boys score!

I wouldn't be concerned either if I were in Salem! I worded that wrong. I guess what I was trying to say was instead of a hostile WEATHER PATTERN, it's a hostile timeframe on the models. It's almost time for them to drop it completely, cause mass panic and pick it back up in 24 hours.

Damned Vikings! As Jeremy mentioned folks, we've lost several storms in the 5-7 day range that never came back. Even me in SW VA. We have a LONG way to go in a fairly hostile pattern.

That's not very nice, grit! What comes will come, and we will take it. I will chase if need be.

Gonna go ahead and get the heat running here in the sanitarium. Gonna be a packed house soon!

BASIN-WIDE SUPER NINO PT. II INCOMING kiss all those cold, snowy forecasts goodbye, folks!

Yep. Our elusive modoki Nino is off the table. We're in a basin-wide event with no looking back. EPS has flipped to a terrible Pacific pattern in the LR. Winter is over before it ever began! All those cold forecasts are toast!

CAN IT PLEASE STOP RAINING ALREADY?! I AM ABSOLUTELY S I C K OF IT!!!!!!!!!!! IT RAINS EVERY FRIGGIN DAY FROM NOON TIL 6:00!!!!!! HAS BEEN SINCE MID-JULY!!!!!!! STOP!!!!!! PLEASE!!!!!!!!! Ok I feel better.

-NAO -NAO -NAO -NAO -NAO Yes, having a +PNA is wonderful. We need it. It's imperative. Combine that with a -EPO and we can get (and stay) cold as we just seen. -AO? You bet, we need it. -PNA/-AO combination is paramount. But we have seen over and over and over and over again the importance of a -NAO. If we have to rely SOLELY on TIMING a HP moving in tandem with a wave all the way across the nation to score, well, the results speak for themselves. We can score with the +PNA/-AO combo, and we have (DEC 8) but in order to get more of the SE involved, we MUST have a -NAO to slow the flow so we don't HAVE to rely solely on timing. Even if it's just for a few days (and most of the time since 2009, we've only had it for a few days at a time.) we absolutely must have it to score widespread across this forum. If we have a +PNA/-AO combo, we have about a 10% chance of a widespread, legit winter storm. Give us a -NAO and I'd say that increases the chance to closer to 50%.

Screw it, I'm moving to northern Kentucky. They always seem to rack up, especially since 2010. They get FROPAs, clippers, cutters and phasers. Plus, they're always colder than anywhere east of the Apps.

I know you already know this, but even though the quote...wait for it...one of our favorite words here..."VERBATIM" is false, we (west of Raleigh) did see how an overly COLD *pattern* can indeed squash (literally and metaphorically) the hopes and dreams of any snow in (most of) the southeast. No one outside of the beaches/far eastern areas had a chance with the PV and those insane HPs destroying any chance of a widespread winter storm. So even though taken literally the quote is wrong, it's not THAT wrong. Those folks were indeed in a similar type of pattern where it was super cold and they didn't see snow in those particular periods. Since there are no storms to analyze, we may as well analyze old wise tales, etc.

I think all members south and east of RDU should leave the board for ten years.

Why I'm pissed FOR anyone on this board inside this circle. Hopefully most are seeing snow on either side of Raleigh. This is insane.

Lucky. ~50 miles to your NNW, nothing.

Please tell me this isn't real. Jesus you guys.

inb4 "the EURO ain't what it used to be!" posts

CFS's got you fam! Gonna be a Jammin' January!

Here come the plethora of 10-or-less-post-having random Myrtle Beach posters going nuts in the 1/3-4 thread. lul Why do you love snow and live in Myrtle Beach? Get real. Move.

HM (I'm paraphrasing here) basically said on Twitter yesterday that the N PAC pattern looks to remain solid for the foreseeable future and if you think the overall large scale pattern will break down, you're probably gonna be wrong. @antmasiello "If you are expecting the North Pacific pattern to flip next month or take on some kind of 2012-like look, you're going to be disappointed. It's not happening." "The Siberian stationary wave system and MQI should prevent a torch scenario. This doesn't mean zero periods of warmth or SE ridge. AAM propagation is one wildcard as well as any intraseasonal Indo pulse. But background state should limit their dominance... Gulp." "One crazier scenario is that the IO forcing-->N Pac circulation lock, creates a looping RMM, weaker Indo response and right back to dual Pac mode forcing. If that occurs, more significant Arctic shots would be on the way next month after current one settles."

Start the thread, apparently. She was smoking in that sparkly see-through dress and stilettos!

How many failed storm threads are we going to start this week?

You keep saying that. but with this pattern, you and T-Pain have a better shot at snow in Tallahassee than we do up here!

I'm trying to figure out why EVERYONE isn't in here. I guess the cold is intriguing. The whole "YOU CAN'T HAVE SNOW WITHOUT COLD" is a moot point. Sure, that's true, but you also CAN'T HAVE SNOW WITH TOO MUCH COLD. Again, this shows the absolute imperativeness of a -NAO for snow here. Period. And if we can't have a -NAO, we at the very least need some ridging in the Atlantic.