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Jonathan

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Everything posted by Jonathan

  1. Of course the Euro is beautiful, but we still had north trends on the before rock-solid FV3 and the wishy washy Canadian. I don't like that all of a sudden we have this northern stream energy to throw a wrench in this deal. That's going to cause madness the next 48 hours.
  2. Jonathan, your stormvista maps are way ahead of WxBell, how's it look across the border around and west of Martinsville? I see sleet creeping to the border on WxBell maps.
  3. You'd think it'd be better as we approach January when it takes over. I guess we wait til 5:00PM for frame hr102.
  4. Good point, sir. I am guilty of "quickly" rushing through surface output rather than MSLP anomalies, etc.
  5. You can say what you want Jeremy but the EURO was much further north and 4-5 degrees warmer across the board. It was 3am and I was squinting at a cellphone. Totals cut, temps higher, more phasing. It was "OK" but it wasn't pretty or a continuation of our "southern slider" it'd previously been showing.
  6. I have a feeling that even I am gonna have mixing issues here across the border. ROA-DCA will end up jackpotting, you watch.
  7. It was 4-5 degrees warmer hours 132-144 for my area and lots of others. That stinks.
  8. I just thought overall it was a little more amped and warmer than we'd like to see. It definitely doesn't slide west to east, noticeable north jump this go round. Onto the ensembles...
  9. I guess overall, this is probably more realistic. Fantasy playtime is over outside of the mountains.
  10. Verbatim with Kuchera ratio still 12"+ in the mountains, 20"+ near Roanoke VA, only 6-8" in the foothills, 2-6" Piedmont, 0-1" for Raleigh. EDIT: an additional 1-3" on the back side for the Piedmont, gets Raleigh to 2-5"
  11. *turns on lights, starts coffee maker* Ah, this morning should be a doozy! Gonna be DEFCON 1 in the SE forum in a few hours!
  12. At that particular hour, sure. I'm on wxbell and the low tracks from SC off the VA coast...yuck
  13. The low is just north of Hatteras at 132...was near Wilmington on the 12z. Even Virginia rains. That high pressure gets broken down like a double barreled shotgun.
  14. Yikes...the euro is WAY north...HUNDREDS OF MILES north...ouch
  15. I see Brandon @HKY_WX lurking. Interested in your current thoughts sir.
  16. It's ok, it's just the crazy 6z...
  17. The euro is an entire day slower than the GFS/FV3. That's a pretty striking difference in the model suites and guessing that's why the EURO is warmer, even though it improved a tick this morning.
  18. HP 1mb weaker on GFS...THAT'S been a trend we don't want to see.
  19. So when do we start looking for trends in the NAM past 60hr? Never? lol
  20. Heck, at this point, I'm beginning to worry about mixing down this way. Really need that FV3 to show us why it's replacing the GFS with this one.
  21. Upper air pattern way more important that what the models paint at the surface. If we're similar at 500mb maybe stray away from the cliff for now.
  22. 0z runs are gonna be a BIG YIKES across the board. Confetti rains in the MA forum...
  23. Here we go... everything north so far. After a day of miller A's, miller B is back on the table.
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