AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Sometimes it does this, becomes a purely surface-based movement. We saw this in 1982, 1972, 1997.

Kind of a good pattern for it, actually

The 12z Euro has such a negative NAO that we even have a snowstorm!

Well, not this Spring. It's a global pattern. We haven't had -NAO in April since 2010 anyway.

lol.. They are 3-1. It is fun to watch young dirt teams overperform. Baltimore has the thing right now, same with Ravens. (The LA Rams were fun through like Week 9)

I doubt it will verify.

Furthest west I've seen a trough like this in the North Pacific in some time. Where was this in the Winter lol

AO will finish above 1.00 for February and March.. The last 2 times that happened were 2015 and 1997, 2 Strongest Nino's. 1982, the third Strongest, was two months above 0.97. 89-90 and 90-91 did and they both had -SOI or -NOI something characteristics of the phase.. 67-68 is the other example and that was a Weak Nino. Two months above 0.9 includes 02-03 which was Moderate El Nino, and 92-93 which I consider a Weak Nino (subsurface). 8/8 had something-characteristics-aspects of the phase in my opinion.

AO will finish above 1.00 for February and March.. The last 2 times that happened were 2015 and 1997, 2 Strongest Nino's.

I've been especially interested in the longer range. Models show the return of a SW trough/EC ridge, and subsurface is showing more of a becoming negative-ENSO signature.

Look at this. Reminds me of the Winter.

Surprised no one has mentioned the Euro.

It's correct. I wouldn't doubt some colder waters popping up in the eastern regions in a few months.

Really classic El Nino signature in the North Pacific like we haven't seen in a while. Reminds me of the late 70s. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html

Really classic El Nino signature in the North Pacific like we haven't seen in a while. Reminds me of the late 70s. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html

I'm seriously questioning the continuation of El Nino with today's subsurface, cold making it to 120W, and +2 at 150Evscold 180-170

-NAO's popping up on the long range GFS ensembles.. yawn

Check out this 10 day NAO forecast. This is currently the best streak since 11 months ago. 2018 4 30 1.055 2018 5 1 1.090 2018 5 2 1.234 2018 5 3 1.700 2018 5 4 2.265 2018 5 5 2.628 2018 5 6 2.496 2018 5 7 2.168 2018 5 8 2.013 2018 5 9 1.864 2018 5 10 1.606 2018 5 11 1.264 The best extended streak since Winter 2018. 2018 1 26 1.036 2018 1 27 1.132 2018 1 28 1.327 2018 1 29 1.323 2018 1 30 1.248 2018 1 31 0.982 2018 2 1 1.082 2018 2 2 1.378 2018 2 3 1.118 2018 2 4 1.103 2018 2 5 1.194 2018 2 6 0.979 2018 2 7 1.363 2018 2 8 1.590 2018 2 9 1.851 2018 2 10 1.757 2018 2 11 1.363 2018 2 12 1.325 2018 2 13 1.547 2018 2 14 1.646 2018 2 15 1.449 2018 2 16 1.285 2018 2 17 1.226 2018 2 18 1.064

The NAO has been positive, and AO. It will be one of the most +NAO March's on record.

The clouds today were nice.

There is a chance it could become a Stronger Nino soon.. look at this pattern.

Really weak subsurface now.

Quite a shift in models. .. take take take ..

Look at this, classic +PNA