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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Who is Cobalt? Do you think that's rain?
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It looks now like it may go into a stronger Nino
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Ok.. look at how this filled in in the north part of Greenland then become an arctic circle block (models were consistently negative anomaly here until a day ago). I think this is the same trend from the Winter and it will be a large arctic ice melt season
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Definitely El Nino, subsurface is leading indicator
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Subsurface trends early 2018 has 7 analogs.. 3 went El Nino, 4 were Neutral. The way it's going, I would guess Weak or low end Moderate El Nino as a max, about the same % chance for Neutral, and slight chance we go back to Weak Nina in the Fall. Hurricane season is probably active with a lot of US misses.
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Next year might be El Nino so that would be interesting with how warm N Hemisphere SSTs were this Winter.
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I would think in a 1000 year period the largest snowfall would happen in the Southeast, US. probably Florida
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    everyone is in a different time?

  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This is some pretty awesome cold for April. Wonder if it verifies.
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    98-99, 99-00, 00-01. It's not too uncommon. 54-56 had a nice streak. 73-76 http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php I think a 3rd Nina year would be weird because of Global warming bias right now. 1 center El Nino event since 2010 in this exponentially warming climate?
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Don't expect it to go El Nino anytime soon.. subsurface for this late in the Winter may even support a Nina rebound in the Summer if it doesn't persist at the surface
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    You'll love this one, Global warming is another way of saying dimension split.. we are on really really low end here. Almost to the point of not going back but not quite yet but we are heading that way
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The SST movement changes direction next few weeks. This is when you'll see it change or not, some people say a Kelvin wave like we had is a preceding mark. Those +subsurface in the western regions are impressive. I think it's strengthening versus climo is a strong signal for North Pacific -PNA, like we are seeing now. The whole pattern has shifted north 200 miles so you aren't going to see severe wx setups like early 2000s
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    What a happening in Texas in February!
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    CPCs subsurface were substantially more Nina last month, TAO/Triton this is most extreme of event now. imo TAO is better
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I don't know much about the QBO. QBO, MJO, AAM sound like new age terms. It was so cool to see precip patterns change when the SOI went negative Check out the NOI or SOI*
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's strengthening a little bit, a lot versus climatology for this time of year. In El Nino transition, it's usually a little different right now meaning this probably goes until April
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    160W is the point for the 200m warm anomalies to cross or not.. this is La Nina signature, and higher western thermocline is probably better forcing for North pacific ridge than cold east
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Feb 10-28 Stratosphere warming to March
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    You dont have frost?
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Nov-Feb 2017-2018 will finish the greatest +500mb in the Arctic Circle on record, significantly above number 2.
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's really hard to get a drought here because we average like 4" per month. You would need something like 10/40 potentials to hit
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