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  1. GFS is quite ugly with the amount of warmth on Thursday and even it has never spit out 60s, only upper 50s. Everything else suggests 40s/low 50s. Not sure where Ron is getting 66 from. Maybe you could ask him if you see him between now and then.
  2. I’d say we’re doing okay. We didn’t get any less snow today when the high was 56 than on Thursday when the high was 33.
  3. As long as mets and people with more technical knowledge than myself say it’s still happening, I’m going to keep the faith. But it’s definitely a test of patience.
  4. Ensembles still look good in the day 10-15 range, but yikes to that 6z GFS, it was horrific.
  5. That seems to be the general consensus. Week before Christmas or so. I’m cool with that if it actually happens and we don’t get a rerun of last year. Though I guess I’d take a rerun of last year over a rerun of 2016-17 or 2018-19 or 2019-20.
  6. 12z GFS is falling in line with the Euro. Game over on the 12/9 threat.
  7. Almost seems like we just went through this for a solid month and a half last winter or something.
  8. 6z GFS has a similar storm. Euro, on the other hand, has a cutter and is warm through 240. So unfortunately we’ve now seen the bad scenario pop up on both models. Still time to change, I guess. Canadian for what it’s worth tracks a low right over us and gives us rain, but at least it’s not a torch.
  9. 18z GFS was about the worst model run you could possibly get for what’s supposed to be a good winter pattern.
  10. I guess that’s the other thing, being that the normals are means and not medians of statistics with no upper limit, it’s going to be naturally more likely to get a BN snowfall month than an AN snowfall month. It is literally impossible to get a month that is 15” below normal but you can get a month that is 15” (or more) above normal if you’re lucky.
  11. Models are showing a much more workable pattern this morning. Let’s hope that’s a trend.
  12. Other than 2020, when was our last good December? And by good, I mean even average.
  13. So this is the patience game yet again, waiting for winter to materialize. Let’s hope this turns out more like 21-22 than like 19-20. But this is an ominous sign, most of what I’ve read has said December was our best shot at a good winter month this year.
  14. Meh, it’s November. Missing out doesn’t sting as much.
  15. Probably outdated at this point, unfortunately. Time stamp appears to be Friday, before models trended warmer for next weekend. GFS has a beast of a storm at 12z, but a waste of 2” QPF that falls as all rain.
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