TimB

They’re both me. I alter my posting style between the three accounts just enough not to arouse suspicion. Or so I thought.

2020-21 was a good winter mostly because December was good and started with a big storm on the very first day of meteorological winter, which is looking highly unlikely for a repeat given the El Niño base state and current modeling. Not saying we can’t have a good January/February, but this winter likely isn’t going to look like a carbon copy of 2020-21.

With thanksgiving trending closer to seasonable rather than anomalously cold, we still have a shot at every day in November having a high of 40 or above. We also did it in 2020.

AGC did briefly get to 39 or 40 just before the 8:00 hour. But yeah, there were some hourly obs last night where that difference was 10 or 11 degrees.

Already into the 60s.

Thanks for the heads up. I’ll be letting 69 News know you’re a hack with an improperly sited weather station splicing weather records back to 1894 into your own.

It’s less impressive than the 72 we hit in the wee hours of the morning of December 22, 2013, much deeper into the cold season.

Looks like today’s records are the only ones that occurred beyond the first week of November. And most of the others were set during the memorable November heatwaves of 2015, 2016 and 2022. Jesus, we almost hit 70 this morning.

Probably not particularly uncommon, as today’s low will be well below that and nowhere near the record warm min (61) at 11:59pm.

Nothing like waking up to it still being 64 degrees at 6am in November.

I feel like they’re often incredibly bad at this. The probabilities were posted by NWS on social media:

I’d say continuing our streak of above average temperature months is a good bet, and with a Niño December we may get to 10 above normal months this year:

It’s probably a function of being further from the coast but more importantly it’s likely a function of not getting lake effect clouds and junk on those clear cold nights.

This morning was no exception. Washington Dulles and Knoxville both got colder than we did. So did Huntsville, Alabama.