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Everything posted by TimB

  1. Looks like we’re going to finish June basically average for temps. We’re at +0.2 and today should be roughly normal with a low about a half dozen degrees BN and a high about a half dozen degrees AN, so should stay +0.2.
  2. Was looking at records to see if we had a shot at a record low tomorrow morning. We don’t, but interesting to note that that the record low of 47 was set in 1988, along with a low of 46 just two days later. We know what came both before and after those chilly mornings.
  3. Official high of 94 today. Let’s hope that stays the hottest day of the summer.
  4. And indeed, the 1:30 obs was 91. 3rd 90 of the season.
  5. Truly a gorgeous night out there, and a spectacular 3-4 day period ahead.
  6. Indeed 74 was reached at 7:45. A few spectacular days ahead and the next climo thing to watch is Sunday morning’s record low of 46, and I think we could get close.
  7. Going to be close but already 76 at PIT. Interesting that this thing was completely dry.
  8. The very large hail threat is honestly the most concerning to me, as the SPC seems to want to center that on our area.
  9. I think there’s quite a bit of question if our low of 74 holds through midnight, but if it does, it’d be only the second time since records started being kept at the airport that a low of 74 has been recorded this early in the season (6/8/08 had a low of 75).
  10. This went ENH for our area with the latest SPC D2 outlook.
  11. 12z HRRR has us getting to 97 tomorrow but first of all, it’s the long range HRRR and second of all, everything else seems to have at least some rain/storms and 90 is indeed a struggle on some models.
  12. Don’t get me wrong, the GFS and CMC also mix dewpoints into the comfortable range down there, but upper 50s, not near 40, and I think that’s probably more reasonable. Makes sense to me that temps would torch if humidity cratered like that under a massive ridge. I just don’t see it happening. Regardless, signs are definitely pointing to the ridge reloading next week, perhaps with a vengeance.
  13. I have a hard time believing dew points will be in the low 40s in South Carolina in late June, especially while it’s muggy up here, which is what I would think allows those readings to be achieved.
  14. Yes, but aren’t some of the ingredients somewhat lacking in C PA even if it does track that way?
  15. PBZ wrote up a decent discussion of the potential derecho.
  16. Best support for eye-popping temps is probably that the latest GEFS ensemble mean for 18z Wednesday is 96. None of the op models or other ensembles have us quite that hot.
  17. Feel like I read a book once about losing people to a chocolate factory.
  18. A real no doubter of a heat wave is on its way so we stop quibbling about it, I’m sure.
  19. PIT had a day during that Feb 2018 stretch that was 78/59, so we got some CDD’s there. Hitting 70 five days in a row in January would be incredibly anomalous in its own right.
  20. CDD is mean temp over 65. Looks like that day had a high of 79 and a low of 43, so a mean of 61 and therefore 4 HDD.
  21. With option 1, can a date range be put on it? If not, then a 5 day stretch of high temperatures in the upper 40s in January would qualify.
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