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Everything posted by TimB

  1. GFS is quite ugly with the amount of warmth on Thursday and even it has never spit out 60s, only upper 50s. Everything else suggests 40s/low 50s. Not sure where Ron is getting 66 from. Maybe you could ask him if you see him between now and then.
  2. I’d say we’re doing okay. We didn’t get any less snow today when the high was 56 than on Thursday when the high was 33.
  3. As long as mets and people with more technical knowledge than myself say it’s still happening, I’m going to keep the faith. But it’s definitely a test of patience.
  4. Ensembles still look good in the day 10-15 range, but yikes to that 6z GFS, it was horrific.
  5. That seems to be the general consensus. Week before Christmas or so. I’m cool with that if it actually happens and we don’t get a rerun of last year. Though I guess I’d take a rerun of last year over a rerun of 2016-17 or 2018-19 or 2019-20.
  6. 12z GFS is falling in line with the Euro. Game over on the 12/9 threat.
  7. Almost seems like we just went through this for a solid month and a half last winter or something.
  8. 6z GFS has a similar storm. Euro, on the other hand, has a cutter and is warm through 240. So unfortunately we’ve now seen the bad scenario pop up on both models. Still time to change, I guess. Canadian for what it’s worth tracks a low right over us and gives us rain, but at least it’s not a torch.
  9. 18z GFS was about the worst model run you could possibly get for what’s supposed to be a good winter pattern.
  10. I guess that’s the other thing, being that the normals are means and not medians of statistics with no upper limit, it’s going to be naturally more likely to get a BN snowfall month than an AN snowfall month. It is literally impossible to get a month that is 15” below normal but you can get a month that is 15” (or more) above normal if you’re lucky.
  11. Models are showing a much more workable pattern this morning. Let’s hope that’s a trend.
  12. Other than 2020, when was our last good December? And by good, I mean even average.
  13. So this is the patience game yet again, waiting for winter to materialize. Let’s hope this turns out more like 21-22 than like 19-20. But this is an ominous sign, most of what I’ve read has said December was our best shot at a good winter month this year.
  14. Meh, it’s November. Missing out doesn’t sting as much.
  15. Probably outdated at this point, unfortunately. Time stamp appears to be Friday, before models trended warmer for next weekend. GFS has a beast of a storm at 12z, but a waste of 2” QPF that falls as all rain.
  16. Looks like PIT squeezed out 0.1” of snow just before midnight last night to extend the streak of days with measurable snow to 5. The only time such a streak has occurred earlier in the season is November 11-18, 1995.
  17. If today’s high of 32 so far at PIT holds, it’ll be the first day we didn’t get above freezing since March 28th. The 234 days in between will be tied for 9th shortest on record and shortest since 1969.
  18. Not a waste, we only needed a couple tenths to push this November into above normal snow territory and I’d guess based on obs that PIT got that.
  19. All you have to do is remember that North Hills snow hole during the MLK day storm.
  20. The warmest temperature ever recorded at PIT on or after November 5th, not including temperatures recorded prior to Pittsburgh International, is 76 (11/10/2020, 11/05/2015, 11/18/1958). That seems to be attainable tomorrow.
  21. It is indeed 9 from November 2-10, 1975.
  22. The consecutive days stuff is a royal pain in the ass to find exactly what you want with those type of stats. I love xmACIS, but not for that.
  23. Sunday appears at this juncture to be the day with the best shot at a low that doesn’t drop below 60 (though it’s very attainable on Monday too) - if that happens, it will be the latest in the season a low in the 60s has ever occurred since the start of observations at KPIT.
  24. October comes in at -2.7, with the lows contributing more to the negative departure than the highs (-3.8 lows, -1.6 highs). November looks to be very much the opposite, with the models keeping unseasonable warmth around longer and longer and no sign of a pattern change in sight, only the occasional “cooldown” to normal or slightly above in between periods of warmth.
  25. We really have overperformed on lows a lot lately. Must have radiated out nicely just before sunrise, when I looked earlier this morning the last 5-min obs was 36 at 7:05. In any event, we got our October freeze. Edit: looks like we actually dropped from 38 on the 6:51 hourly obs all the way to 32 at 7:20.
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