TimB

That said, this particular pattern is unprecedented, just not here. There are areas of the upper Midwest that have never hit 60 in February that could go into the mid to upper 60s tomorrow with enough sun and slow frontal timing.

January isn’t nearly as bad on that particular stat. As many 60 degree days in the 1990s as in the past 10 years.

60 degree days in Feb, 1982-present. Draw your own conclusions, but it looks pretty clear to me.

I’ll do it quantitatively too: The average high on March 1st is 43, so I’ll define any day with a high of 43 or above as “spring-like”. With 10 days left of winter, we’ve had 46 spring-like days, and the forecast would suggest 9 of the remaining 10 will be spring-like, bringing us to 55. Only 3 winters have had 55 or more spring-like days, and none of us here experienced any of them: 1889-90, 1879-80, and 1931-32. So none of them were even an apples to apples comparison as they were observed in weird sites.

An early spring would be much more palatable if we actually had winter. All of December, all but one week of January, and all but one evening in February have basically been spring.

Also we’re losing March as a wildcard or a borderline winter month. Assuming this March fails us, that’s 4 out of the last 5 that have had little to no snowfall. 2020: 1.0” 2021: 0.1” 2023: 3.1” 2024: not holding out much hope

Just sucks, and just as a reminder, the all time snow futility record at PIT (16.6” in 1973-74) is still on the table as we’re at 15.3”.

January 1977 is ridiculous. It’s 6 degrees colder at Pittsburgh than any other month on record. Not 6 degrees below normal, 6 degrees below the 2nd coldest month on record.

I’m pretty jealous of anyone who got to live through those late 70s winters. All 3 of them. Likely never be a stretch like that again. 13-14 and 14-15 I guess came close, and the 3 solid winters out of 4 in the 90s.

4” imby.

Yeah the whole thing overperformed.

3.1 NWS obs. We did it!

Ah but the NWS office isn’t at the airport, it’s a little north and that’s where the obs is taken.

I’d say this thing verified and then some, whether the official total at PIT gets there or not.

I’m also thinking no. Meanwhile there’s a report from Imperial, a few miles away, of 4”. It’s like the streak just doesn’t want to end or the NWS observer doesn’t want it to.

Official NWS obs at 9pm was 1.9”. Hopefully they can squeeze out another inch.

Advisory/warning map is kinda wonky. You’ve got counties with warnings bordering counties with nothing.

That’s actually a pretty big whiff by the NWS. Those areas were supposed to get 2-2.5”.

They also dropped our amounts in the text of the advisory back to 2-4.

PBZ upgraded those Ohio counties to a warning.

That early band looks like it might clip the south hills. Probably no love for those of us who are north.

NWS introduced the “heavy at times” wording to the 4pm forecast package.

Has the disadvantage of being west for an event that’s going to perform best south and east. But can’t rule it out.

HRRR is starting to look kinda meh. Hopefully that’s not a sign.

I would accept a solution that settles somewhere around the 3” that the NWS is calling for. I’d love 4-6, but that seems like an unrealistic expectation.