jaxjagman

Looks like NINA rang the door bell and someone let her in

Tropical genesis is hard to predict without a storm,it's just a time frame to watch right now possibly

3.4 is falling fast .The MJO by the Euro is going to get strong into P8 and with possible KW and RW towards the end of the month,this should continue to pound the cold subsurface to the surface east of the IDL.Not sure i agree with the new experimental JAMSTEC with the oceans into summer.If its right tho towards fall we would be looking at a -PDO and also the NA/Tripole would really cool down into into fall so you'd have a +NOA into winter more likely,maybe some help with the EPO but JAMSTEC looks like crap next winter right now,

JAMSTEC isn't that excited with a Nina

Yeah its a suck time to do anything

Ninas knocking on the door

Best chance of tropical genesis into the GOM would seemingly be more into June.Least today there could be a Kelvin Wave moving into by some models along with the CFS across the Yucatan,this certainly would be a time frame to watch,BUT 3-4 weeks out is beyond trustworthy right now

Could get some good thunderstorms next weekend somewhere in the Valley, if the Euro is right as the boundary slips southward.Not very exciting looking right now but CIPS does show a risk as well.

Upwelling seemingly has done a job.Long range models are hinting at another KW passing across the IDL after the Mid month .Could be some tropical genesis into the GOM afterwards towards June or just into if its correct

NMME'S fall into winter

Ouch

No doubt about Nashville.Last i heard they still have thousands without power plus some won't have it back for a week

Starting to see a few wind damage reports URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Nashville TN 935 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020 TNZ005>008-023>028-057-059-050500- /O.NEW.KOHX.HW.W.0001.200505T0235Z-200505T0500Z/ Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Houston-Humphreys-Dickson- Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Hickman-Williamson- Including the cities of Dover, Clarksville, Springfield, Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville, Erin, Tennessee Ridge, Waverly, New Johnsonville, McEwen, Dickson, Ashland City, Kingston Springs, Nashville, Lebanon, Mount Juliet, Centerville, Franklin, and Brentwood 935 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT... * WHAT...Wind gusts up to 60 mph * WHERE...Portions of Middle Tennessee. * WHEN...Until midnight CDT tonight. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

Using my Verizon2Go,our Comcast went out and still is out since my last post.Lots of trees down and power outage,luckily we still have power but internet is extremely slow and hard to use This was a crazy vid tho during the storm

NIA reported gust to 71MPH

113000 folks without power in Davidson Co

Internet finally came on,lots of wind damage on Concord Rd by my house with trees down some small hail

Wind gust around Ashland City should be over 80mph

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 340 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Middle Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A long-lived and fast-moving line of severe thunderstorms over western Tennessee will track eastward across the watch area this afternoon and early evening. Damaging winds along the leading edge of the storms is the primary threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west southwest of Nashville TN to 30 miles south southeast of Crossville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun May 03 2020 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are likely this afternoon over Kentucky and Tennessee. Other strong to severe storms are possible farther east extending from West Virginia to the Delmarva, across the northern and central High Plains, and over a small portion of west-central Texas. ...KY/TN area... Updates to this outlook include expanding the 30% wind probabilities east ahead of the ongoing MCS, and expanding the 15 and 5% farther southeast toward northern AL. While a capping inversion may limit the southern threat areas, the deep cold pool associated with this system may allow for a threat farther southeast than expected. The greatest threat will continue to be over the Enhanced Risk area, closer to the instability axis and ahead of the apex of the bow.

Mesoscale Discussion 0519 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 03 2020 Areas affected...Much of Tennessee and adjacent portions of southern Kentucky and northern Alabama Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158... Valid 032008Z - 032115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158 continues. SUMMARY...An organized cluster of thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of relatively brief and weak tornadoes, across Middle Tennessee, including the Greater Nashville Metropolitan area by 4-5 PM CDT. A new severe weather watch likely will be issued to the east of WW 158 shortly. DISCUSSION...Supported by inflow of moist boundary layer air with CAPE on the order of 1500+ J/kg, a relatively compact but organized and vigorous mesoscale convective system is maintaining intensity as it progresses east of the Mississippi River. Based on recent radar trends, the severe hail threat appears to have diminished, at least somewhat. However, damaging wind gusts continue to be observed, particularly to the southeast of the lower/mid tropospheric mesoscale convective vortex which may turn eastward near/along the Kentucky/Tennessee border. System motion has shown little signs of slowing, and at around 50 kts, convection appears on track to impact the Nashville metroplitan area between 4 and 5 PM CDT. Maintenance of convective intensity, and continuation of associated severe wind and potential for relatively brief, weak tornadoes, into the Cumberland Plateau remains more unclear. Based on its current motion, this possible by 7-8 PM EDT. However, drier air emanating from southeastern U.S. surface ridging may result in less unstable inflow and weakening convective trends as suggested by at least some model output, including the last few runs of the High-resolution Rapid Refresh.

Yeah its fixing to run into SBcapes around 2800 in West Tn,per mesoscale

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 158 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Arkansas Extreme Southern Illinois Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri West Tennessee * Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1145 AM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of severe thunderstorms over southern Missouri will track eastward across the watch area this afternoon, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles southwest of West Plains MO to 20 miles southeast of Clarksville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).