jaxjagman

I'd have p'd in my pants if i saw a bear that close

Nice early afternoon convective storm,with much needed rain.We got close to a inch to 1.5" so far today

Probably wait and see if the timing is right.In East Asia the last day or two there has been a more Baiu-front where heights build into China and an ULL North of Japan and some sort of boundary in between which goes stationary for a time,these fronts can be big rain makers in East Asia,into the early summer

Euro switched out on recent long range runs.This afternoon it shows a trough in the east with shortwaves spinning along.The low level shear 30-35kts would be a potential drought buster for us into next weekend,not sure i'd trust it right now tho

Heh,let's hope they continue to be bad like you said.Even tho last year we broke the record for most 90 degree days in a year,i can't recall triple digits anytime,in which this look would certainly/possibly do this around Mid July

Probably should have been expected but parts of the Valley west of I-65 went into a more abnormal drought,looks like an unsettled period coming up.We had a decent cell come through yesterday but we need more South Drought continues to rapidly develop and intensify across most of Texas and Oklahoma, with patchy dryness beginning to develop farther east in western Tennessee and adjacent Mississippi. Central parts of the region, soaked by heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm Cristobal last week, remained free of moisture deficits. Only isolated parts of Tennessee saw any significant precipitation this week. Western Texas and eastern New Mexico received less than 0.5 inch the past couple of months, and most of this area recorded under an inch for the past 90 days. Farther east in central Oklahoma, higher normals allowed rainfall deficits of 2.5 to 4.5 inches accumulate over the past few weeks. As a result, moderate to severe drought expanded in many areas from central Oklahoma to the Texas/New Mexico border as far south as the Big Bend. Precipitation shortfalls are less acute and of shorter duration on the east side of the South Region, but conditions deteriorated enough to introduce D0 there.

We haven't gotten much rain here the past few weeks.Our yard was looking great a few weeks ago but now is getting brown patches

Seemingly as well if everything teleconnects there should be should be a Upper Level Ridge in the East towards the end of the month, but its still in the long range and could change.but todays Euro shows this in East China into Korea

It doesn't have great support right now ,but the KW looks much stronger on today's CFS .It hasn't been showing much of anything past the Eastern Pac but now it does into the 3rd week of June

Pretty fascinating how weather in East Asia could potentially correlate and match up pretty well.Here you have a trough around Southern Japan that develops a system close to the East China Sea with ridging building into Korea.Then look several days later you see basically the same type scenario with a trough in the SE that develops a system going into the GOM with ridging into the Valley.It don't mean it will be right at this stage,i was just pointing out some basics with East Asia

Experimental JAMSTEC Oceans Deleted by accident i believe last months so i'll re-post it here.The SST'S in the ENSO regions are much cooler this update.Quite a few ensemble members this month shows a stronger Nina,but basically looks neutral to weak.But still quite a bit of spread between models

NMME'S Updated

95 is the record here today,HRRR shows us tying this this afternoon.Not sure it will happen or not.Heat Index is at 95 right now

That was a nice supercell that broke off that main band.To North it had to be a shelfie that lasted several minutes afterwards that got severe warned,further east we started to lose instability.The supercell that got warned did a couple recycles but lasted almost two hours with a wall cloud and funnel cloud which i saw reported and watching my radars.Plus, it was running into a OFB.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Memphis TN 659 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020 TNC005-017-039-077-050015- /O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-200605T0015Z/ Henderson TN-Benton TN-Carroll TN-Decatur TN- 659 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON...SOUTHWESTERN BENTON...SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL AND NORTHWESTERN DECATUR COUNTIES... At 659 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Wildersville, or near Natchez Trace State Park, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Fire Department confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Natchez Trace State Park, Natchez Trace State Forest, Wildersville, Parkers Crossroads, Clarksburg, Westport, Hillard, Holladay, Dollar, Palmer Shelter, Yuma and Parker`s Cross Roads.

TOG

Quiet May NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center 2 hrs · Severe weather was well below normal in May 2020, especially tornadoes. Watches, moderate/high outlooks, severe reports, and tornadoes were all well below normal, some at or near record low. The attached slides are a summary of just how anomalous May 2020 severe weather was. Here is a summary: -May 2020 was the first year without a moderate risk or higher Day 1 outlook issued in the 1995-present period. -May 2020 had the fewest number of tornado watches in recorded history (1970-present). -May 2020 had the fewest severe weather reports since May 2014. -May 2020 had the fewest recorded tornadoes since at least 1970 (likely longer). -May 2020 had the fewest number of EF2+ tornadoes in recorded history (1950-present).

Guess some of the last pics got lost in cyber space,could have also deleted them by mistake The file you were looking for could not be found. Starting to cool around the IDL

The Upper Level ridge made it to the Kuril Islands today,The track into next weekend should be dependant on how strong a Mid level ridge is and how fast it possibly could get broke down or not,least that's my thinking right now

Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 750 PM EDT Sun May 31 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for tropical cyclone formation over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. 1. The remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda are currently located over northern Guatemala. This system is forecast to move northwestward to northward within a broader area of disturbed weather, and it could emerge over the southeastern Bay of Campeche on Monday. If the remnants move back over water, environmental conditions appear conducive to support some development, and a new tropical depression could form while the system moves little through the middle of this week. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during the next few days. For additional information on the rainfall threat, see products from your national meteorological service. The next update on this system will be in the first regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season, which will be issued by 2 AM EDT Monday morning. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Forecaster Beven

Could get some strong storms Thursday.Hard to figure out any MCS at this point,not much shear showing up like Nashville mentions.It dont look as warm in the long range what the Euro showed yesterday but still AN,have to watch the tropics upcoming next week like Jeff mentioned National Weather Service Nashville TN 610 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 .UPDATE... FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... As a longwave trough slips east across the Mid Atlantic and New England regions, Middle TN is benefiting from the effects of an approaching high pressure system. Temperatures this afternoon sit comfortably in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees with little to no cloud cover. Tonight will be the coolest night of the upcoming work week, feeling almost fall-like, with values dropping into the upper 40s and low 50s. We expect temps to rebound nicely Monday afternoon under a mostly sunny sky and a surface wind slowly becoming ESE. Mid-level ridging takes hold of the Tennessee Valley, keeping us dry through midday Wednesday. Models are not in the best agreement in regards to rain chances Wednesday afternoon, with the GFS ensembles a touch wetter across southern counties. A slow-approaching cold front will wash out over the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. Combined with an impulse of energy ejecting from AR and another across the Gulf Coast, height falls will contribute to developing rain Thursday morning and a few storms by Thursday afternoon/evening. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out if decent lapse rates and MLCAPE values are realized...though shear parameters remain very weak. In addition, mid and upper-level northwest flow will place our area along a favorable trajectory for upstream MCS development Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning. Historically, storm complexes that develop hundreds of miles to the northwest and hold together long enough to make it to the Mid State are challenging to forecast. Current model solutions are not in lockstep, proving the complexity of the forecast. The strength and persistence of any mesoscale convective system is dependent on the environment it creates for itself and the environment it encounters downstream. The northwest flow/MCS pattern is common in Middle TN around summertime and bears watching later this week. Beyond Saturday, high pressure tries to build in across the Midwest and northern portions of the TN Valley. At the same time, there are indications of some type of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday into early next week. If high pressure builds in strong enough atop the Mid State, we can expect the tropical moisture to stay farther south. If only weak ridging develops, this could allow moisture and rain chances to approach the area from the south early next week. Temperatures over the next seven days will become quite toasty...as much as 7 to 10 degrees above normal for the start of June. Tuesday and Wednesday appear to be the warmest, though upper 80s to low 90s are possible all the way into next weekend.

EPS Control breaks down the Mid level ridge faster today and the storm is more progressive as it gets into Texas.But still aims towards East Texas.It's just some guidance at this point

A few members are showing a stronger system compared to yesterday