jaxjagman

Euro is even colder in the east,with a nice 1040+ artic high nosing down into the lower OV,guess we shall see ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 12Z JAN31 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SUN 12Z 31-JAN 38.0 35.9 14004 98 SUN 18Z 31-JAN 50.2 37.9 50.4 46.3 22005 95 MON 00Z 01-FEB 52.4 47.5 47.4 46.6 27005 0.03 0.00 100 MON 06Z 01-FEB 47.5 36.9 36.8 34.6 28005 0.10 0.00 96 MON 12Z 01-FEB 36.8 32.3 32.3 30.0 27004 0.04 0.03 99 MON 18Z 01-FEB 33.9 32.0 33.6 24.5 32008 0.07 0.07 100 TUE 00Z 02-FEB 33.7 31.0 31.0 24.2 32006 0.05 0.05 98 TUE 06Z 02-FEB 31.0 27.2 27.2 19.9 33008 0.06 0.06 100 TUE 12Z 02-FEB 27.3 26.5 26.7 20.5 33006 0.01 0.01 99 TUE 18Z 02-FEB 30.3 26.5 30.5 19.3 34008 0.03 0.03 99 WED 00Z 03-FEB 35.7 28.2 28.0 18.0 32005 0.00 0.00 0 WED 06Z 03-FEB 28.1 19.6 20.0 9.4 01004 0.00 0.00 2 WED 12Z 03-FEB 22.0 16.1 17.9 12.9 08002 0.00 0.00 39 WED 18Z 03-FEB 35.0 17.4 35.3 18.0 35003 0.00 0.00 0 THU 00Z 04-FEB 38.4 25.9 28.4 19.2 20002 0.00 0.00 0 THU 06Z 04-FEB 30.0 22.1 23.3 18.2 10003 0.00 0.00 96 THU 12Z 04-FEB 25.9 22.9 25.8 18.6 11003 0.00 0.00 97 THU 18Z 04-FEB 44.0 25.8 44.2 20.1 20003 0.00 0.00 100 FRI 00Z 05-FEB 48.0 42.5 45.5 27.6 20008 0.00 0.00 99 FRI 06Z 05-FEB 47.1 44.0 46.4 44.0 19011 0.07 0.00 100 FRI 12Z 05-FEB 48.9 41.5 41.1 39.8 28009 0.47 0.00 100 FRI 18Z 05-FEB 41.4 36.2 40.3 27.6 25009 0.01 0.00 63 SAT 00Z 06-FEB 43.6 35.1 34.7 19.2 26006 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 06Z 06-FEB 34.8 29.1 29.2 19.8 21004 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 12Z 06-FEB 29.3 27.7 28.0 20.4 19004 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 18Z 06-FEB 49.3 28.0 49.5 24.8 23005 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 00Z 07-FEB 51.7 38.7 39.5 27.4 10003 0.00 0.00 6 SUN 06Z 07-FEB 40.6 35.5 36.9 30.7 06003 0.02 0.01 100 SUN 12Z 07-FEB 36.9 32.7 32.6 32.4 36004 0.58 0.48 100 SUN 18Z 07-FEB 34.8 27.6 27.3 21.2 28009 0.22 0.20 94 MON 00Z 08-FEB 27.3 20.4 20.2 12.1 29010 0.00 0.00 89 MON 06Z 08-FEB 20.2 7.6 7.4 -4.4 28008 0.01 0.01 9 MON 12Z 08-FEB 7.4 -0.2 -0.4 -9.1 29006 0.00 0.00 13 MON 18Z 08-FEB 10.4 -1.0 10.6 -5.8 30005 0.00 0.00 1 TUE 00Z 09-FEB 14.4 6.9 8.0 -4.0 30004 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 06Z 09-FEB 11.6 2.9 7.1 -5.8 05002 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 12Z 09-FEB 7.8 -1.2 0.3 -9.1 08003 0.00 0.00 9 TUE 18Z 09-FEB 17.8 -0.6 18.0 -2.3 20001 0.00 0.00 24 WED 00Z 10-FEB 21.1 12.6 13.3 1.0 12002 0.00 0.00 10 WED 06Z 10-FEB 15.9 5.9 7.7 -5.2 05004 0.00 0.00 5 WED 12Z 10-FEB 9.3 5.1 5.9 -6.8 05003 0.00 0.00 45

National Weather Service Nashville TN 228 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 .DISCUSSION... Model spread has continued to be large for snow events in the mid state this year, and this event is no exception. The GFS and Canadian are holding strong at the high end of snow amounts, while the lower res ECMWF remains at the lower end or around the 10th percentile. High res CAMs are right around consensus average to just above average for this event, but enough uncertainty exists that confidence in snowfall amounts, especially in the advisory area, is low to medium even this close to the event. Deep eastern trough currently digging its way south and east today will be the driver for snow potential over the next 36 hours or so. Cold front is working its way through the mid state currently, with northwest winds bringing CAA over the mid state. Precip looks to arrive more widespread later in the evening, where most of the area will see rain to start off. On the Plateau and at higher elevations the changeover to all snow will be after 9 pm but before midnight, and the rest of the mid state after midnight. Urban areas, especially the Nashville metro, may see a rain/snow mix a little longer than other areas as slightly warmer temps may keep all snow away for a few hours longer. The warmer surface temps looks to also limit accumulation potential, but more on accumulations in a bit. Snow will continue into the morning, but move off to the east by the afternoon. The Plateau will still see chances for accumulating snow in the afternoon and possibly even into the evening Monday/overnight Tuesday. Soundings and cross sections show models really focusing in on orographic lift with this event as northwest wind orientation lines up well with the higher elevations on the Cumberland Plateau. Omega values peak just in front of the higher elevations, and deep moisture is in place overnight through most of the day Monday. But as the trough moves east, drier air aloft may limit the heavier snow potential on the Plateau, but still enough near surface moisture to get a little more accumulation. Current forecast thinking has the higher elevations of the Plateau seeing 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts definitely possible especially in the areas that typically see a bit more with this setup. Just off the Plateau to the west could see around a half inch or so and even up to an inch, but the western 2/3 of the mid state will likely see a dusting to a few tenths of an inch. However, some models are really hitting that orographic lift hard, with the deep moisture, and squeezing out every possible ounce of moisture for snow tonight through Monday night. Highest elevations on the Plateau show around 4 inches with those models, and if additional moisture moves in, snow starts sooner/continues longer, those higher amounts will be possible. On the other end, the drier air may work its way in sooner, or the orographic lift in the models (especially the higher-res CAMs) may be way overdone, and the eastern 1/3 may only see a half inch for most with around an inch or two at highest elevations. Very difficult forecast as very little change from any variable could result in big swings in snowfall accumulations in the east. Another lobe of energy from the upper trough looks to swing through late Monday/early Tuesday, and may keep the Plateau with snow a little longer. Otherwise ridging moves in behind the trough and keeps us dry for a few days. By Thursday, another trough will move in from the Plains, and bring chances for precip during the day. Models are not in complete agreement, but the GFS brings another trough right on its heels and very cold arctic air with it as well by Sunday morning. The ECMWF and Canadian get on board about 12 hours later, but 850 mb temps around -22C would yield some pretty cold lows and even daytime highs. If that forecast pans out, lows in the single digits will not be out of the question, but this far out things could trend upward just as easily. So dont bank on the arctic airmass just yet! LOOKING like a good potential we see the coldest air of the season upcoming.Both the Euro and GFS both show single digits upcoming,some spread in the longer range still tho,would be the coldest air we've seen here in quite sometimes ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z JAN31 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SUN 12Z 31-JAN 51.1 50.2 21010 79 SUN 18Z 31-JAN 55.1 49.8 52.1 45.9 30008 100 MON 00Z 01-FEB 52.1 41.2 41.1 31.2 30010 0.01 0.00 100 MON 06Z 01-FEB 41.1 35.4 35.3 29.6 31010 0.00 0.00 100 MON 12Z 01-FEB 35.3 33.2 33.1 28.5 32010 0.06 0.06 100 MON 18Z 01-FEB 35.2 33.0 35.3 26.5 32012 0.02 0.02 100 TUE 00Z 02-FEB 37.1 34.2 34.0 21.7 33009 0.00 0.00 13 TUE 06Z 02-FEB 34.0 28.2 28.2 19.0 33010 0.00 0.00 66 TUE 12Z 02-FEB 28.2 25.6 25.6 17.5 33008 0.00 0.00 67 TUE 18Z 02-FEB 35.8 25.5 36.1 20.6 33008 0.00 0.00 2 WED 00Z 03-FEB 39.6 32.9 32.7 21.4 33006 0.00 0.00 0 WED 06Z 03-FEB 32.7 26.7 26.6 22.5 33005 0.00 0.00 0 WED 12Z 03-FEB 26.6 24.3 24.7 22.0 36004 0.00 0.00 36 WED 18Z 03-FEB 38.0 24.6 38.3 24.1 00001 0.00 0.00 88 THU 00Z 04-FEB 42.8 35.5 35.2 27.5 12002 0.00 0.00 72 THU 06Z 04-FEB 35.2 30.0 30.4 23.6 16005 0.00 0.00 96 THU 12Z 04-FEB 35.2 30.3 35.3 24.4 16008 0.00 0.00 99 THU 18Z 04-FEB 50.5 35.3 50.7 35.3 18012 0.00 0.00 100 FRI 00Z 05-FEB 53.3 50.5 52.1 47.6 19013 0.02 0.00 100 FRI 06Z 05-FEB 53.3 49.5 48.9 48.6 29013 0.50 0.00 97 FRI 12Z 05-FEB 48.9 35.5 35.4 28.1 28008 0.05 0.00 68 FRI 18Z 05-FEB 40.6 33.4 40.8 19.6 27009 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 00Z 06-FEB 44.0 36.5 36.4 22.0 24005 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 06Z 06-FEB 36.4 33.2 33.3 21.8 21006 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 12Z 06-FEB 33.3 32.1 32.0 22.1 19006 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 18Z 06-FEB 53.0 31.9 53.3 27.2 20007 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 00Z 07-FEB 55.2 45.4 45.1 32.6 14004 0.00 0.00 100 SUN 06Z 07-FEB 46.9 38.6 38.5 35.1 03007 0.03 0.00 100 SUN 12Z 07-FEB 38.5 26.2 25.5 22.2 33014 0.37 0.20 100 SUN 18Z 07-FEB 26.6 19.9 24.2 12.0 30011 0.06 0.06 87 MON 00Z 08-FEB 25.2 18.9 18.7 1.4 31012 0.00 0.00 75 MON 06Z 08-FEB 18.7 10.6 10.5 -5.9 32008 0.00 0.00 0 MON 12Z 08-FEB 10.5 6.6 6.5 -8.3 32008 0.00 0.00 0 MON 18Z 08-FEB 15.4 5.9 15.7 -8.2 31006 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 00Z 09-FEB 19.4 12.7 13.7 -7.3 32005 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 06Z 09-FEB 14.7 10.4 11.6 -7.1 02004 0.00 0.00 7 TUE 12Z 09-FEB 12.6 9.6 9.9 -10.5 02004 0.00 0.00 2 TUE 18Z 09-FEB 24.3 8.8 24.6 -6.9 34004 0.00 0.00 0 WED 00Z 10-FEB 27.8 19.5 19.5 -2.5 35005 0.00 0.00 70 WED 06Z 10-FEB 20.2 16.1 16.1 -5.9 02004 0.00 0.00 89 WED 12Z 10-FEB 16.8 13.7 15.3 -9.2 03004 0.00 0.00 100

If we get a dusting i'd be happy,surface temps are to warm once again.Weather channel needs to put the bong away.

Heard a few rumbles here a few minutes ago

Nashville and its heat island...lol

Just a big tease,to warm to stick,least we can say it snowed

Brentwood,Williamson County

I was beat and getting ready for bed,i seen it in east Ms earlier,should have said something like you said at that time I've always thought the TN Valley should be renamed and more parts of MS/AL/GA should be added in since no one covers that area,you'd get more posters here just as well.To be honest here,we are not even considered the TN Valley here

Yeah we got a good dose of rain also Flood Advisory Flood Advisory National Weather Service Nashville TN 1114 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021 TNC037-187-260645- /O.EXT.KOHX.FA.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-210126T0645Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Davidson TN-Williamson TN- 1114 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021 The National Weather Service in Nashville has extended the * Flood Advisory for... Southern Davidson County in middle Tennessee... Northern Williamson County in middle Tennessee... * Until 1245 AM CST. * At 1114 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Some locations that will experience flooding include... Franklin, Brentwood, La Vergne, Nolensville, Forest Hills, Oak Hill, Belle Meade, Pegram, Bellevue, Antioch, Fairview, Hermitage, Rural Hill, Berry Hill, Natchez Trace At Highway 96, Leipers Fork and Percy Priest Lake.

Didn't get a tornado but by far the best fireworks i have seen in the past couple years here.Went on my back patio to watch and a bolt hit about a quarter mile away,scared the piss out out me..lol

Mesoscale Discussion 0033 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021 Areas affected...Northern/Central Mississippi...Western/Middle Tennessee...Northwest Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252249Z - 260015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South into Middle TN this evening. Some risk for tornadoes may necessitate a watch in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Strong mid-level short-wave trough is ejecting across the central Plains this evening. The more appreciable height falls will spread across the Mid-MS into the OH Valley region. Along the southern fringe of this stronger large-scale forcing, robust convection has recently developed across portions of western TN where surface dew points have risen into the mid 60s with surface temperatures in the lower 70s. This activity should spread east-northeast along a corridor that is destabilizing just south of a well-defined warm front. Ample shear/buoyancy exist for supercells (possibly tornadic supercell ongoing over Fayette County TN) and there is increasing concern/confidence that other organized longer-lived storms may develop. Farther south along the Pacific front, showers are gradually deepening from northwest MS into northeast LA. Some lightning is noted with the stronger updrafts but activity has struggled to organize. It's not entirely clear how many organized supercells can/will develop along this zone, but shear/buoyancy do favor some tornado threat. Tornado watch may be warranted for this activity in the next couple of hours. ..Darrow/Thompson.. 01/25/2021

system to watch should be the one around the 5th

Crappie Pac,teles shows a +ve NAO,-ve PNA even with a diving-AO,these are not signs of any cold pattern for us least past into week 1 of Feb and probably beyond if the MJO sticks into the Pac

APEC SHOWS A MORE +TNI but not well into early spring ,more late spring into early summer,but you can still see how volatile 1+2 can be at times.

Certainly wont have a drought soon if its right

Looks like we are going to see a potential big warm up into the first of Feb as the heights are being shown to spike up in East Asia followed by trough finally in East Asia.Have to wait and see what the teles look like the next few days.Right now it seems, there could be a decent squall line to come though

Subsurface now looks coldest into 3.4,the standing wave west of the IDL looks to hold at least for now but seeems like their could be some changes upcoming,i wouldnt be surprised to see region 4 get around -1.5 upcoming

Belongs in the banter but brrrrrrrrrr

Getting close to the positive range,we should be there next month. 2002 -1.780 -1.343 -1.287 -1.326 -1.663 -2.335 -2.871 -3.001 -2.878 -2.546 -2.413 -2.311 2003 -2.523 -2.644 -2.910 -2.995 -3.040 -2.895 -2.723 -2.412 -2.082 -1.738 -1.596 -1.522 2004 -1.600 -1.571 -1.913 -2.272 -2.637 -2.999 -3.376 -3.253 -2.993 -2.731 -2.505 -2.393 2005 -2.598 -2.605 -2.408 -2.383 -2.284 -1.897 -1.885 -2.124 -1.999 -1.668 -1.264 -0.475 2006 0.151 0.067 -0.099 -0.601 -1.170 -1.501 -1.289 -1.087 -0.991 -1.131 -1.184 -1.204 2007 -1.594 -1.834 -2.022 -2.341 -2.655 -2.697 -2.565 -2.305 -1.865 -1.291 -0.302 0.850 2008 1.836 2.404 2.671 2.493 2.015 1.613 1.429 1.173 0.955 0.839 0.787 0.779 2009 0.793 0.753 0.514 0.107 -0.284 -0.476 -0.848 -1.309 -1.687 -2.025 -2.418 -2.571 2010 -2.649 -2.398 -2.127 -1.750 -1.548 -0.957 -0.564 -0.218 0.113 0.681 1.167 1.530 2011 1.523 1.577 1.546 1.271 0.844 0.675 0.387 0.168 -0.029 0.070 0.363 0.844 2012 1.082 1.479 1.613 1.596 1.191 0.601 -0.046 -0.718 -1.412 -1.740 -1.626 -1.515 2013 -1.149 -0.999 -1.167 -1.528 -1.929 -2.379 -2.398 -2.185 -1.936 -1.583 -1.043 -1.077 2014 -1.358 -1.503 -1.408 -1.483 -1.122 -0.636 -0.406 -0.499 -0.813 -1.238 -1.715 -2.117 2015 -2.476 -2.435 -1.984 -1.434 -0.702 -0.198 0.100 0.112 -0.139 -0.404 -0.676 -1.188 2016 -1.630 -1.802 -1.946 -1.978 -1.763 -1.441 -0.968 -0.508 -0.101 0.324 0.690 1.097 2017 1.447 1.465 1.268 0.592 -0.267 -1.150 -1.575 -1.925 -1.847 -1.735 -1.548 -1.264 2018 -1.134 -1.260 -1.320 -1.650 -1.978 -2.118 -2.089 -2.159 -1.979 -1.890 -1.734 -1.700 2019 -1.725 -1.774 -1.892 -2.226 -2.535 -2.750 -3.045 -3.344 -3.286 -3.001 -2.857 -2.549 2020 -2.208 -2.029 -1.811 -1.756 -1.891 -1.855 -1.720 -1.586 -1.090 -0.441 -99.990 -99.990 -99.99 TNI Nina 1.2-Nino4 standardized

Seems possible the MJO signal could go back into East Africa upcoming.The EURO does not seem to have any support from its ensembles. Edit:Maybe it does,i still haven't gotten use to these to these new colors on these maps on FRONTIER

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few brief thunderstorms are possible over the central Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau this afternoon. ...Central OH Valley to Cumberland Plateau... A pocket of rather cold 500-mb temperatures near -34 C and zone of ascent evident by a mid-level cloud deck near Memphis should reach eastern TN/KY border area by late afternoon. Full insolation ahead of this feature will promote the development of very steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Still, surface temperatures are only expected to warm into the 40s with dew points mixing through the 20s resulting in scant MLCAPE at best. Isolated to scattered low-topped convection appears likely for a few hours this afternoon from this leading mid-level cold pocket to the primary mid-level cyclone drifting southeast across the Mid-MS Valley. Much of this activity will probably remain as showers, but sufficient signal does exist to warrant an area of thunderstorm probabilities around 10 percent.

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/20160122

Severe dixie alley getting primed into spring

All the long range models shows the heights rising in east Asia.Some hints at a even +nao and -pna,but it is to early to tell and the MJO looks to me will get into the MARITIME but the signal isnt as strong as it has been.The ensembles tho have a sIgnificant amount of spread with them,JMHO

Trough is going trough East China,Yelllow Sea and even possibly into South Korea the next couple days,we should have a system if everything teleconnects around the 19th.EPS even hints at this in the long range