jaxjagman

Invest 94W has no name yet but should have a name around tomorrow i believe.Kelvin Wave in that region is on going so the potential of a strong typhoon seems like a good possibility.High Pressure on the Euro and GFS looks to more or less centered into the Yellow Sea,so this should keep the storm away from China and for that matter even Korea.Going into China like Jeff mentioned would mean a warm Valley look.One of the differences right now is how the GFS and Euro handle the trough into Japan the next few days.So we'll see what happens. Believe the weeklies though are picking up on the potential typhoon as it shows a trough in the east with the 850's sub 15c temps around the 17th through out the Valley,this would be much BN temps and should also be a potential for decent cold front for this time of year,would be typical re-curved typhoon anyways.Also the weeklies were showing a potential warm towards the last week of August Monday,it's not even close today.So maybe the typhoon will play a part in the turning off the heat.

Downwelling Kelvin Wave right now into region 3 with into the thermocline you see some cooling and west of that you see some upwelling with warmer waters getting into the surface in 3.4 and even 3 as well.This is much like what some of the seasonals are showing for a potential Modoki look into fall severe season,but we'll see

DCA +2.0 NYC +1.7 BOS +1.9 ORD +1,1 ATL +1.9 IAH +1.6 DEN +2.9 PHX +1.5  SEA +0.4

Jongdari should be headed towards or into China by mid week,this would pump up the heights in East Asia,not that they aren't already pumped up.We should warm up upcoming,maybe something similar to when Maria hit China?.Still looks like the pattern in East Asia will get broke down in the long range with lower heights than what they've been going through

Euro is slightly different today for us in Mid Tn. from yesterday this time.Monday looks more scattered with weak wind shear but there is a weak shortwave trough coming through..Into the late evening into early morning Tuesday the LLShear starts to pick up.Kinda question the capes the Euro shows with the CAMS,Tuesday.But anyways the LL shear is showing 20 kts into the early afternoon into the early evening here,with the 850mb winds increasing to around 35kts around late afternoon,with another shortwave trough coming though.There would be some decent rains Tuesday afternoon into early evening here at least,if it's right of course.If the CAMS get better we'll have more severe chance.

Looking at the latest solar predictions this could be even more like the 2009-2010 winter.With a developing ElNino,like during the 2009-2010 winter we had our coldest winter here in over 30 years during this time in Nashville.If it happens or not we'll see.What's interesting to me is the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) is at record proportion for the month of June -28.45,though this most certainly will change,it's never been this strongly negative this time of year

The Euro is hinting at a upper ridge into the Upper plains with a 594dm into the western Valley and SE into week 1 of August.So we'll see if the HP is stronger than being shown,it shouldn't be nothing more than a transient warm up.Jongdari is fixing to be a player somewhat by the looks to help break down the heat wave in East Asia.I'm sure they will be happy,there's been some record all time highs hitting around parts of Japan over 106F in Kumaguya,suburb of Toyko. So far this summer it seems we've been lucky enough to escape the heat,though it's been warm but it's summer time,so what's new The upper ridge will seemingly get pushed back from East Asia into more Mongolia and drop the heights into Korea and Japan,cool down and also into week 3-4 per CPC and weeklies and as Carver mentioned above, cooler temps into the Valley seemingly upcoming,we'll see

Nashville is going with the Euro.Euro has a shortwave trough coming through the Mid Valley,late night,early morning Tuesday.Wind shear looks weakish right now but at least should be enough for a poor mans severe chance with just thunderstorms,showalter is around -4,in the Mid Valley.

Kinda Modoki look into fall by Jamstec,we haven't had a good fall severe for some time.

The Euro would have done great with this system if it wouldn't have crapped out at the last minute.For several runs before it showed a "LID" in place over Mid Tn. and the strongest storms over east of I-65

Jamstec the last update shows a more weak/moderate Nino,don't really look Modoki in winter and like the IMME it peaks into winter then falls off.Would make a interesting winter though as it looks even colder this last update.

Latest IMME shows a more basin wide.Seasonals keep trending away from a Modoki in winter.but to be honest the IMME peaks in Dec and falls off in Jan,will we would even achieve a actual Nino on the tri-monthlies?Maybe the IMME is to cool or maybe its picking up on something

Severe fall the models seems to be getting away from any Modoki,more crap look

SOI took a big dip recently the last couple days.Asia is more or less showing the HP into Korea getting shifted more into China upcoming .Should be a warmup into the first of August and potentially a nice system into the 2nd week of August.Also potential of a CCKW into wk 2 of August,watch the GOM

Euro got slightly better into the weekend,around Sunday/Monday.GFS even shows some capes now.Not a great severe look but it's still 7 days out. Euro this afternoon shows a shortwave trough going through the Tn Valley during this time,instabilities still look weak

7/4/04 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Event.php?reg=MV&fhr=F036&rundt=2018071912&dt=2004070412

Perfect example of why more money need to be spent on American modeling.Yesterday CANSips and even SHARPpy showed analogs of 7//4/2004,though this was more wind and hail.I almost posted a pic of it,now i wish i did

You guys in the East have done quite well this summer,rain,severe,etc.etc.We didn't even get a drop of rain yesterday.That's the life of the Valley,someone is going to get screwed any type of season..lol. The Euro actually did well for you guys with this system and it showed this for several runs but for some reason it wigged out at the last minute and showed a more severe in the Mid Valley. Long range models show a more neutral/positive tilted trough around next weekend.With a cold front,timing issues.But instabilities looks weak.The Euro would seem to maybe bring a marginal risk if that .If the Euro were to be right,right now there would seem to be some short waves rotating underneath to cause some more isolated severe threat Longer range could get interesting though.In East Asia there looks to be several tropical systems, typhoons on the maps upcoming the next few days,can we get something to re-curve?.Looks pretty active ,right now in that part of the world.So any long range the models shows will probably struggle some what. Then looking into August the Euro and GEFS wants to kill the MJO,from the Euro aspect and it's biased nature into phase 6 it typically gets finicky.Into the first part of August the MJO seems to be possibly getting into the GOM, signs of KW into the GOM as well right now

See if it last.still some rotation headed towards Decatur

Going S of Spring City

Yeah i'm disappointed,all i wanted was a light show instead have temps of 85 at 10pm and dp's in the mid 70's..lol

Looks like the rotation died again but some 2" hail marker

headed towards Spring City

Some rotation again my last scan headed towards Spring City

Looks like it's starting to lose it's punch,there was a 3" hail marker earlier from the cell