jaxjagman

Perfect example of why more money need to be spent on American modeling.Yesterday CANSips and even SHARPpy showed analogs of 7//4/2004,though this was more wind and hail.I almost posted a pic of it,now i wish i did

You guys in the East have done quite well this summer,rain,severe,etc.etc.We didn't even get a drop of rain yesterday.That's the life of the Valley,someone is going to get screwed any type of season..lol. The Euro actually did well for you guys with this system and it showed this for several runs but for some reason it wigged out at the last minute and showed a more severe in the Mid Valley. Long range models show a more neutral/positive tilted trough around next weekend.With a cold front,timing issues.But instabilities looks weak.The Euro would seem to maybe bring a marginal risk if that .If the Euro were to be right,right now there would seem to be some short waves rotating underneath to cause some more isolated severe threat Longer range could get interesting though.In East Asia there looks to be several tropical systems, typhoons on the maps upcoming the next few days,can we get something to re-curve?.Looks pretty active ,right now in that part of the world.So any long range the models shows will probably struggle some what. Then looking into August the Euro and GEFS wants to kill the MJO,from the Euro aspect and it's biased nature into phase 6 it typically gets finicky.Into the first part of August the MJO seems to be possibly getting into the GOM, signs of KW into the GOM as well right now

See if it last.still some rotation headed towards Decatur

Going S of Spring City

Yeah i'm disappointed,all i wanted was a light show instead have temps of 85 at 10pm and dp's in the mid 70's..lol

Looks like the rotation died again but some 2" hail marker

headed towards Spring City

Some rotation again my last scan headed towards Spring City

Looks like it's starting to lose it's punch,there was a 3" hail marker earlier from the cell

Tornado watch for the Eastern Valley

Models still don't get along but the NAM seemed to join hands somewhat with the Euro bringing a MCS east of Nashville in the evening.Both the CAMS look the way.The WRF still shows multi cluster supercells until early morning sometimes. I just want to see a light show

Besides the brief respite from the muggy air, the other story of this forecast package revolves around the intense upper level low that will develop in the Great Plains tonight and push into the Great Lakes region Friday. As it does, areas from the mid- Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley will be squarely in a northwesterly flow aloft. Models continue to show a pre-frontal MCS (though being depicted to arrive earlier in the day Friday now in both the Euro and GFS) and a surface low developing to our west Friday evening. While the MCS could be troublesome enough, both the GFS and NAM are off the charts regarding the deep layer shear being generated by this surface low. What was 40-50 kts of 0-6 km shear is now 60 kts and in the 00Z to 03Z Saturday time frame (Friday evening), low level SRH values bounce up to about 300 m2/s2. Instability values are also sky-high due to the southerly influx of surface moisture. The first thing that comes to mind in the northwesterly flow aloft is a Friday evening derecho. Obviously, a scenario like this carries with it damaging straight line winds, heavy rains (PW values are running about 2 inches) and yes, the potential for July tornadoes. I am going to add this Friday severe weather threat into the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Some decent shear for this time of year,much better than it was showing yesterday https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OHX&issuedby=OHX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Models still show a chance of some strong storms towards the end of the work week into the Valley.Took some soundings into the Mid Valley for Friday.The Euro is for BNA and the GFS is slightly S of BNA.All the models today show the Upper level trough more Southward than usual in the summer time.Instabilities right now look pretty decent for some strong storms upcoming.Who ever gets storms it should be like the SPC mentioned as there is a capping inversion into the evening hours,so storms will die off into the early evening,right now anyways Nashville disco Extended outlook...Rain chances will creep back into the forecast on Thursday as another upper level trough moves southeastward through the Midwest. Chances will increase further on Friday as the trough approaches TN and moist southerly flow returns at lower levels. The pattern for late next week and next weekend is pretty interesting as extended models morph the trough into a significant closed low over Michigan. This set up leaves Middle TN in a period of significant northwest flow aloft...and probably another cold front that could arrive Saturday. There is much uncertainty in a Day 6-7 forecast, but don`t be surprised if we see some strong storms in this pattern...given the moisture, a cold front and unusually strong flow aloft proving unseasonably strong wind shear.

Chance for some strong storms towards the end of the work week by both the GFS and Euro.SPC don't sound to enamored by this ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... On Friday, the models diverge in the solutions but on a broad-scale maintain a western U.S. upper-level ridge and eastern U.S. upper-level trough. The position of the trough is doubtful at this range but model consensus would put the greatest potential for thunderstorm development in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. An isolated severe threat would be possible Friday afternoon into the early evening. On Saturday and Sunday, the models move the upper-level trough slowly eastward but vary considerably on the amplitude of the system and amount of instability that will be in place. Thunderstorms with some potentially strong, would be possible ahead of the upper-level trough in areas that destabilize the most. Uncertainty is considerable at this range.

NMME update during "DJF"

Cool,i was watching the radar and it was starting to die out seemingly with the loss of diurnal heating as mentioned.That would have been a nice storm if not for timing.Though i can do without wind storms like that, that knock the power grids out like it did into Ky into some towns

Kinda eerie photo shop look,if you go back to the pic i posted on 6-1,you'll see what i'm saying.Before we had our our recent wet spell recently we had a decent warm up.Looking at the weeklies last night,it's showing this with even 25C into the Western Valley around mid month and 20c for us in the rest of the Valley showing on the 850mb temps.After this the temps of the 850mb go south,cool down period and potential wet pattern.CFS has been showing a potential active KW into the mid month.If the KW were to work out we could see some tropical genesis into week 3 of next month into the GOM,the weeklies sure show this.We shall see upcoming

You guys get any of the storm last night?They put us in a watch but i figured it would go west of us,it was dropping S from Kentucky.Seen some 80 mph winds on my radar in Southern Kentucky,70 mph towards the KY/Tn line into Tn but it looked like it was starting to weaken the further S it went,i went to bed by the time it got to you guys

May the PDO warmed .Not all Ninos seem to work the same.The super Nino of 82-83,in May of 1982(I.E) the PDO cooled to -1.17 and more or less fluctuated back and forth from negative to positive the remainder of that said year,1982.

Thermocline is getting warm in 3.4..Jamstec shows a moderate Modoki into fall,then it starts to weaken into winter

Yeah,i was taking a nap and missed it :(.I caught the storm on my radar after it passed Lawrence Co.But it as well put up a couple OFB's into Alabama and So.Middle Tn late afternoon,we can't get nothing here

Storms are firing up a long a new OFB in Southern Middle Valley

I have a friend who lives in Loretto,Tn who shared some pics on my facebook page.Tore some of his shingles off his home,tore his gutter almost completely off and threw his trampoline across his yard into the woods,plus numerous trees uprooted,that was a violent storm that swept through like you said

We totally whiffed out of what the models showed.We should have gotten more rain here.Friday was the killer to start with,with the dry air intrusion that neither the GFS or Euro showed.Don't think we even got a quarter inch of rain from this mess the last couple days here, didn't expect much in the way of severe here,but i thought we'd at least get more rain...sigh... Hopefully we get some good storms over night.GFS shows MUCapes above 5k in the afternoon in the Mid Valley Sunday,what were those lotto numbers again?

Slight risk tomorrow,southern areas.Nashville seems to think the slight risk will be expanded,so we'll see what the next update shows.For today so far: ...MO/AR into KY/TN/MS... A cold front currently extends from central MO into northeast AR. Scattered thunderstorms will develop along this front this afternoon, spreading eastward into parts of western KY/TN and northern MS this evening. Relatively strong wind fields in this area suggest some risk of severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts. A consensus of model solutions suggest that afternoon t-td spreads will only be the 10-12 degree F range. This combined with poor mid-level lapse rates lend uncertainty to a more robust severe event. This area will be monitored in later updates.