jaxjagman

GFS backed off tonight,convection down south like the Euro has been showing,still could be severe in some parts especially more western to southern Valley

Like John brought up in the winter threads a potential severe threat would be this coming Saturday.The question would be what kind of convection happens south of us which could choke off instabilities.But this system is starting to look like the system we saw earlier this month with a nose of cape with some very good helicities like the GFS shows this afternoon.

Kelvin looks weaker today and don't get out of 3.4.But the westerlies still look like they will get into 3.These maps should be updating here shortly for today,as this was yesterday

Yeah ,noticed this also.Seasonals keep pushing back and back when it peaks like you said.

Still would be cautious of what the CFS shows.Take the CFS out the westerlies are weaker.IMO you don't want to see what the CFS shows.

We'll have to wait and see but i don't like the look.The warmer waters east of the IDL and a potential DW kelvin wave would pull those warmer waters into the thermocline to the surface.It's not basin wide look but more central-east

Some of the long range models don't really show much of a warm up now,guess we'll see,think the date you are talking about is around the 28-29 ?Right now looks more winter than severe

APEC from South Korea

Suspect if we get any severe it's going to be into the weekend after next.You have a trough going through East Asia around the 18-19th and a big dip in the PNA which would suggest some volatility .Just a hunch at this point

The latest NMME shows a moderate Nino into DJF,this update.Much better look for a potential "Modoki" with the SST's to east,it was much warmer looking last time.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0407 AM CDT Fri Nov 02 2018 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Potential exists for a significant severe event to transpire day 4 (Monday) into day 5 (Tuesday) mainly from the lower MS Valley into the Southeast States. Model solutions have converged and demonstrated run to run consistency, depicting significant cyclogenesis to commence by Monday evening over the lower MS Valley in response to an approaching intense upper jet within base of an amplifying shortwave trough. The low is forecast to deepen as it lifts northeast into IL overnight with trailing cold front advancing through the TN and lower MS valley regions. Richer low-level moisture residing over the northern Gulf will advect rapidly northward through the warm sector in response to the strengthening low-level jet, contributing to destabilization with moderate instability possible from east TX into a portion of the Gulf Coast states. Severe storms are likely to develop along advancing cold front Monday afternoon initially from southeast OK into east TX, then spreading into the lower MS Valley and TN Valley regions Monday night. Impressive wind profiles with large hodographs and an intense upper jet will promote a threat for damaging wind, tornadoes and large hail. Severe threat will continue east through portions of the Southeast states and Middle Atlantic Tuesday.

Some better capes down in the Southern Valley,pretty dynamical negative tilted fall storm though shaping up.Still some slight differences in the GFS and Euro.We'll see if the SPC puts anyone in a risk area tomorrow

Euro has a much weaker system,has some KI.Some better showalter in the eastern valley during the day,maybe some thunder.Overall weaker system that stays neutral tilt and don't really go negative

Nice system like we talked about in the fall thread last week with the trough going through East Asia and Yutu not re-curving and going into the Phillippines but there still was the trough either way.Storm starts to go -ve tilt somewhere around the Central plains.Would be a nice system but still a long way out but still nice it has some backing

Other than slight timing differences,it's not an outlier right now.

Definite would be some nice winds

Tidbits seem to be running too cool

Some signs of possibly westerlies east of the IDL coming back around the end of the month upcoming,have to wait and see.

The last couple weeks https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html

What Nino vs Nino "Modoki" looks like.You have warmer waters in the central flanked by cooler anomalies during an "Modoki" within the boxed areas,parts in between are neutral

The BOM was showing a strong Nino last update,came back down to earth this update with a more moderate one.

Good article,thanks John.I was wanting to know more what her findings were about in Dec. or late autumn into early winter.We are a time time in an El Nino year where tornado activity starts to spike and actually we are only a few weeks to where it peaks in fall severe.