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jaxjagman

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  1. jaxjagman
    Tornado watch for the Eastern Valley
  2. jaxjagman
    Models still don't get along but the NAM seemed to join hands somewhat with the Euro bringing a MCS east of Nashville in the evening.Both the CAMS look the way.The WRF still shows multi cluster supercells until early morning sometimes. I just want to see a light show
  3. jaxjagman
    Besides the brief respite from the muggy air, the other story of this forecast package revolves around the intense upper level low that will develop in the Great Plains tonight and push into the Great Lakes region Friday. As it does, areas from the mid- Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley will be squarely in a northwesterly flow aloft. Models continue to show a pre-frontal MCS (though being depicted to arrive earlier in the day Friday now in both the Euro and GFS) and a surface low developing to our west Friday evening. While the MCS could be troublesome enough, both the GFS and NAM are off the charts regarding the deep layer shear being generated by this surface low. What was 40-50 kts of 0-6 km shear is now 60 kts and in the 00Z to 03Z Saturday time frame (Friday evening), low level SRH values bounce up to about 300 m2/s2. Instability values are also sky-high due to the southerly influx of surface moisture. The first thing that comes to mind in the northwesterly flow aloft is a Friday evening derecho. Obviously, a scenario like this carries with it damaging straight line winds, heavy rains (PW values are running about 2 inches) and yes, the potential for July tornadoes. I am going to add this Friday severe weather threat into the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Some decent shear for this time of year,much better than it was showing yesterday https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OHX&issuedby=OHX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
  4. jaxjagman
    Models still show a chance of some strong storms towards the end of the work week into the Valley.Took some soundings into the Mid Valley for Friday.The Euro is for BNA and the GFS is slightly S of BNA.All the models today show the Upper level trough more Southward than usual in the summer time.Instabilities right now look pretty decent for some strong storms upcoming.Who ever gets storms it should be like the SPC mentioned as there is a capping inversion into the evening hours,so storms will die off into the early evening,right now anyways Nashville disco Extended outlook...Rain chances will creep back into the forecast on Thursday as another upper level trough moves southeastward through the Midwest. Chances will increase further on Friday as the trough approaches TN and moist southerly flow returns at lower levels. The pattern for late next week and next weekend is pretty interesting as extended models morph the trough into a significant closed low over Michigan. This set up leaves Middle TN in a period of significant northwest flow aloft...and probably another cold front that could arrive Saturday. There is much uncertainty in a Day 6-7 forecast, but don`t be surprised if we see some strong storms in this pattern...given the moisture, a cold front and unusually strong flow aloft proving unseasonably strong wind shear.
  5. jaxjagman
    Chance for some strong storms towards the end of the work week by both the GFS and Euro.SPC don't sound to enamored by this ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... On Friday, the models diverge in the solutions but on a broad-scale maintain a western U.S. upper-level ridge and eastern U.S. upper-level trough. The position of the trough is doubtful at this range but model consensus would put the greatest potential for thunderstorm development in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. An isolated severe threat would be possible Friday afternoon into the early evening. On Saturday and Sunday, the models move the upper-level trough slowly eastward but vary considerably on the amplitude of the system and amount of instability that will be in place. Thunderstorms with some potentially strong, would be possible ahead of the upper-level trough in areas that destabilize the most. Uncertainty is considerable at this range.
  6. jaxjagman
    I'm ready for football.Your baseball team is having a bad year and the Braves who were playing good are going through a mid season melt down
  7. jaxjagman
    Looks like a wash rinse and repeat pattern but some decent signs of even a warmer period into the 1st week of August,it is summer tho and August is hot.But the SOI the last couple days has really warmed up into a more Nina pattern of +13.85 today,this is a rise of around 28 points the last couple days.The weeklies shows even hotter temps with the 850mb of 25c expanding more into the Valley before once again getting batted back down by an Upper level trough.Wouldn't surprise me if it's not right and later on the next few days you see the MJO going back into the COD.Just my speculation and is no forecast.
  8. jaxjagman
    It's looking like the the upper ridge breaks down a day sooner than what was being shown in earlier runs ,into Sat.The Euro and GFS both have a shortwave trough this afternoon for Monday but the Euro looks slightly slower than the GFS.Should see some potential strong storms Monday afternoon and if the Euro were to be right into the evening and early morning hours,for some parts.Mesoscales seem sketchy at this point
  9. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    NMME update during "DJF"
  10. jaxjagman
    Not horrid looking anyways,right now
  11. jaxjagman
    Kinda like what the NMME show the last update.It did a back flip though for August,last update before looked hot,not near as bad this time.
  12. jaxjagman
    National Weather Service Nashville TN 611 PM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018 .UPDATE... FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Quite a bit of cloud cover has stymied temperatures this afternoon. I don`t believe anyone will reach 90 degrees by the end of the day. These "cooler" temperatures are making for a bearable day outside. I also think these sub-90 degree temperatures are keeping convection at bay, but we are finally seeing a couple of pinhead showers starting to poke through on radar. A few showers and thunderstorms are still likely to wet some spots in Middle TN, but coverage is going to be limited before the sun goes down. With basically a rinse-and-repeat summertime forecast for this package, there are a couple of things that stand out. First, I`ll keep mainly a 20-30 PoP each afternoon, but Tuesday may see a little more coverage as a very weak boundary should push in from the north. I`ll cap things at 50 PoP for now, but Tuesday does look like the best shot for more than just scattered thunderstorms. Even with the increased chances, no shear means convection should remain sub- severe. Secondly, the upper ridge over the Great Plains will begin to push eastward starting Wednesday. Centered over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by the end of the workweek and characterized by daytime highs increasing each day, Friday should be the warmest of the week. Mid-90s are looking possible for many with small diurnal thunderstorm chances, so if you like these "cooler" temperatures we`re seeing today through Tuesday, get out and enjoy them. The heat is coming back by the end of the week.
  13. jaxjagman
    Parts of the Valley are in a abnormal drought,nothing horrible but abnormal.Some areas especially in our eastern Valley has done quite well with rain.We got our best rains here from the frontal passage recently,believe we got around .50 ". Euro got warmer last run.Shows a 594dm next Sunday,the savior for Sunday would be low DP 63 with temps 98 for BNA.But,following Sunday the DP's rise and potentially upper 90's with DP hovering into the low 70's,potentially heat advisory criteria. The GEFS shows the next several days the jet up into Mongolia and China with HP over S/Japan,Korea,Yellow Sea,China ,then next weekend or that following Monday HP goes into China.If we don't get lucky enough in the long range to get a frontal passage into the Valley,which it's summer seems possible it won't, we potentially could see a longer warm up.JMO
  14. jaxjagman
    I dunno,looks like the LR models are to cool to me right now,teleconnections look warm to me into past mid month.Maria is going into China pumping up the heights with though a trough into Mongolia.If you wanna believe the SOI it tanked recently but today took a good spike upwards the last couple days SO this should just be some transient warming spell.But i still believe right now we are headed to some of the warmest temps we've seen all season upcoming.Even the potential big drop in the PNA upcoming would scream HP or ridging for the Valley.Still like what the weeklies last run shows.It's summer time anyways,we do have warm ups..lol 7 Jul 2018 1012.36 1011.50 -0.55 -7.36 -2.35 6 Jul 2018 1010.11 1011.90 -16.87 -7.63 -2.24 5 Jul 2018 1009.71 1012.35 -22.10 -6.96 -1.86 4 Jul 2018 1010.04 1012.55 -21.30 -6.18 -1.39 3 Jul 2018 1012.25 1012.75 -8.93 -5.77 -0.92 2 Jul 2018 1014.30 1013.05 1.85 -5.97 -0.63 1 Jul 2018 1015.04 1012.60 9.17 -6.18 -0.37
  15. jaxjagman
    Like what the Weeklies show just past the mid month.Looks like a big warm up.The HP that the Euro has been showing which would have been over Japan which potentially would have re-curved Maria in the Yellow Sea is now being shown much further west bringing Maria into China.With Maria now going into China this will form a ridge(pump up heights) into Korea,Yellow Sea.With the MJO now being shown stronger than most recent days getting out of the COD into 4 now the next couple days,the recent rise in the SOI in the past few days.Believe there are good signals for a good hot spell upcoming.
  16. jaxjagman
    See how this plays out.HP off of Japan will steer Maria into the Yellow Sea brushing the China coast possibly then re-curving it back into the west coast of Korea though weaken her,Maybe just North of Seoul?I wouldn't trust any long range model right now.Plus possibly tropical genesis into the GOM around the mid month
  17. jaxjagman
  18. jaxjagman
    You asked about the sea ice in another thread,figured i'd post it here,it's running below the Median right now http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/ http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-comparison-tool/
  19. jaxjagman
    It hasn't backed down much this month as well.Enso is more "modoki" into fall like the rest of the seasonal's have been showing.Towards Jan though it looks more basinwide,which seasonals show this just as well.Towards spring it looks more west based,but 3.4 is still warm.Late season would be interesting though into March,with "BN" temps being shown and the 200mb VPA over the Valley,could be winter or could be a severe sign,just speculation at this point.
  20. jaxjagman
    Cool,i was watching the radar and it was starting to die out seemingly with the loss of diurnal heating as mentioned.That would have been a nice storm if not for timing.Though i can do without wind storms like that, that knock the power grids out like it did into Ky into some towns
  21. jaxjagman
    Waiting on the winter thread John or Carver...hint..hint
  22. jaxjagman
    Kinda eerie photo shop look,if you go back to the pic i posted on 6-1,you'll see what i'm saying.Before we had our our recent wet spell recently we had a decent warm up.Looking at the weeklies last night,it's showing this with even 25C into the Western Valley around mid month and 20c for us in the rest of the Valley showing on the 850mb temps.After this the temps of the 850mb go south,cool down period and potential wet pattern.CFS has been showing a potential active KW into the mid month.If the KW were to work out we could see some tropical genesis into week 3 of next month into the GOM,the weeklies sure show this.We shall see upcoming
  23. jaxjagman
    You guys get any of the storm last night?They put us in a watch but i figured it would go west of us,it was dropping S from Kentucky.Seen some 80 mph winds on my radar in Southern Kentucky,70 mph towards the KY/Tn line into Tn but it looked like it was starting to weaken the further S it went,i went to bed by the time it got to you guys
  24. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    May the PDO warmed .Not all Ninos seem to work the same.The super Nino of 82-83,in May of 1982(I.E) the PDO cooled to -1.17 and more or less fluctuated back and forth from negative to positive the remainder of that said year,1982.
  25. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Thermocline is getting warm in 3.4..Jamstec shows a moderate Modoki into fall,then it starts to weaken into winter
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