jaxjagman
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Everything posted by jaxjagman
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We had a little hail this afternoon in the Middle Valley, some big cumulus clouds,this was from Fairview.The cells started to weaken by the time they got to us ,we saw some but nothing like this
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Agreed.But still need to watch next Wed and maybe Thursday especially during diurnal heating.GFS last run shows some better Super cell composites with better bulk sheer Wednesday in the Western Valley.Difference to me between the Euro and GFS is the GFS shows a shortwave in the western Valley,the Euro don't show this.So who knows which will cave.Also going to Thursday if the GFS is right,shows MUCapes of around 3.7K in portions of the eastern Vallley
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Keep a eye on this time frame.The MJO has been showing signs of being LESS progressive as it was being shown getting into the IO into week 2 now more mid month,either way
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Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
The Pollen is bad right now.Predicted to get into the high range here in Mid-Tn tomorrow and Friday.I wear contacts and had to take them out because my eyes were totally blood shot,plus the sinus headaches are not much fun either.Certainly pulling for some rain sooner than later. -
The MJO also would be favorable during this time on the maps above.But where it goes after it gets into the IO is in question and how amped it will be when it does get there
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Maybe towards the Mid month we'll see a better system.The boundary isn't up towards the lakes but a warm front potentially could be lifting through the Valley
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Nice work,this is awesome,this must have taken some time to figure out?Good to see though Mid Tn posters with contributions to our board and our area.Don't stop now..lol
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- mountain snow
- thunderstorms
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If some of the seasonals are right by the POAMA looking at the IOD,more neutral(negative) will possibly be into summer.Nothing + looking right now to be more or less inductive to a Nino,right now anyways
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If the weeklies are anywhere right not only there would be a severe threat but a big flooding threat into wk 1 and week 2 of May.This system around the first of May is looking better also recently,so we'll have to see what happens with this
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If the GAAM into the May don't get taken out like Jeff mentioned.The GAAM is showing almost -3.5 sigma,this is the same time frame mentioned above,once again,we'll see
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If the BSR map is correct we could be looking at the potential for some good storms into week 2 of May.The Dashboard is all over this time frame.Along with the BSR maps shows a area of LP coming out of Texas into the Valley.The OLR has been showing up on this time frame as well.We'll see
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The frontogenesis on the Euro on May 1st looks fairly close to the BSR maps,only problem is the split flow right now.The BSR maps look well right now.Severe threat seems low right now into the first part of May,in the Valley
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Lets go Preds
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Chance for a KW week 3-4 as you mentioned also.Upper trough being shown right now won't be much of any severe weather in the Valley upcoming unless that changes
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Almost a 50 degree swing today from the morning low to afternoon high in the Mid Valley
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IMME , precip for May.Would seem to be a active month if it were to be right.
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IMME is neutral into fall
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Edit:Put the wrong BSR map up.Had 4-1 and put the right one up.5-3,either way it's still around the first of May we are talking about
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April the 16th,even snowing here..Mother Nature is smoking some good stuff !!
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- mountain snow
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Nina is more neutral(negative) today.Far as cane season goes the GOM in the early season should be what the Valley would look at right now that could effect us.The MDR in the GOM has been running abnormally warm
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As expected also as mentioned a few days ago the GEFS showed the MJO crashing into the COD when getting into Africa(phase 8),this is GEFS biased.It's a hater of the IO.It's -2 sigma into the IO
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Seems like the potential for a strong system around the 1st of May,though this could be occluded by the looks.The SOI has recently made some wild swings recently,but it's shown to have made around a 36 point drop recently.The BSR maps shows a cold front with a warm front lifting ahead.Now we also see in the long range looking into Asia(Korea),we see this potential from the Euro.We'll see.
