jaxjagman

Jamstec wants to kill Nina by summer,UKMet Mean,not so much

SOI finally got out of negative today where it's been sitting all month and sits at +14 today.

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday from a portion of northeast Texas through the lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. ...Northeast TX into the lower Mississippi Tennessee and Ohio Valleys... A significant shortwave trough will eject northeast through the central Plains and middle to upper MS Valley region Saturday and Saturday night while taking on a negative tilt. In response to forcing accompanying this feature, a surface low initially over the southern Plains will deepen as it develops northeast through the middle MS Valley, eventually reaching the Great Lakes toward the end of the period. Warm front extending east from the surface low will move northward, reaching the OH Valley Saturday night. A cold front initially across west TX will advance through the Southern Plains and middle to lower MS Valley during the day reaching the OH and TN Valleys Saturday night. A strengthening low-level jet resulting from the deepening cyclone will transport richer gulf moisture northward with low 60s F dewpoints as far as the OH Valley and mid to upper 60s from east TX to the lower MS Valley. However, instability will probably remain marginal due to widespread clouds and modest lapse rates with MLCAPE likely to remain below 1000 J/kg over most of the warm sector. A forced line of potentially strong to severe storms should evolve in vicinity of cold front initially over north central or northeast TX into southeast OK during the day. Activity will subsequently move into the lower MS, TN and OH Valley regions as the low-level jet strengthens to 60+ kt and shifts northeast through moistening warm sector. Vertical shear and overall character of wind profiles will be more than adequate for organized severe storms, with potential for LEWP, bowing segments and a few embedded supercells capable of damaging wind and a few tornadoes. An upgrade to higher probabilities might be needed in later outlooks once uncertainties regarding the thermodynamic environment have been mitigated.

SIGTOR showing 45% out in parts of the Ms and Ark,30% in parts of the Western Valley,Saturday.The GFS was slightly faster tonight.The VBV that Jeff talked about above is not near as bad today as it's been showing.

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210956 SPC AC 210956 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018 Valid 241200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... A significant shortwave trough will eject northeast through the central Plains and middle MS Valley region (Day 4) Saturday and Saturday night. Some deamplification is expected, but the trough will take on a more negative tilt as it approaches the middle MS Valley. GFS is still the stronger solution with deeper cyclogenesis and suggests potential for a slightly more robust severe threat. In either case a forced line of potentially strong to severe storms might evolve in vicinity of cold front initially over northeast TX, before spreading into the lower MS and TN Valley regions as the low-level jet strengthens and shifts northeast through moistening warm sector. While vertical shear and overall character of the wind profiles should be more than adequate for organized severe storms, primary limiting factor appears to be a marginal thermodynamic environment given likelihood of widespread clouds and weak lapse rates. Some severe threat might linger into Sunday (day 5) over a portion of the Middle Atlantic, but confidence is not high enough at this time to introduce a categorical area. Overall severe potential should remain low day 6 into day 7 as a cold front settles into the northern Gulf coastal area.

Models can't get along.Euro was about 6 hrs slower and the GFS much stronger on the 0Z run, but , the GFS did close the gap on the 6Z run.Euro might be over doing the instabilities which it can tend to do at this time. Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Model consensus is that a significant shortwave trough will eject northeast through the central Plains and middle MS Valley region (Day 5) Saturday and Saturday night. Some deamplification of this feature is expected, but model differences persist. GFS maintains a more amplified trough with a deeper surface low suggesting the potential for a greater severe threat compared to ECMWF, UKMET and the Canadian. In either case a few severe storms might evolve in vicinity of frontal zone from east TX into the lower MS and TN Valley region as the low-level jet strengthens and shifts northeast in response to the approaching shortwave trough. Storms may be ongoing along baroclinic zone over a portion of this region, with potential to intensify within zone of modest destabilization and forcing associated with the migrating low-level jet. Limiting factors are likelihood of widespread clouds and tendency for the approaching shortwave trough to weaken with deeper forcing likely remaining northwest of warm sector. Some severe threat might linger into day 6, but overall potential should decrease later day 6 into day 7 as a cold front moves into the northern Gulf coast area. ..Dial.. 02/20/2018

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Better agreement/consistency is evident at this time with respect to various medium-range model runs through a majority of the day 4-8 period, as compared to 24 hours prior. Models in general depict that a major short-wave trough -- digging across California and the Great Basin day 4 (Thursday) will eject east across the Desert Southwest/southern Rockies day 5, and then the central and southern Plains day 6 (Saturday). While this feature is progged to weaken/deamplify with time due to persistence of southeastern U.S. ridging, surface lee cyclogenesis is expected over the southern High Plains early in the day which will deepen/shift quickly east-northeast into the Ohio Valley/Midwest overnight. Ahead of this system, low-level moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico should prove sufficient for at least some warm-sector CAPE development which -- combined with what should be a favorable background lower- and middle-tropospheric wind field -- suggests that some severe weather risk may evolve Saturday. While degree of instability may limit risk to some degree, ample evidence exists to suggest initial introduction of 15% severe weather probability from the Arklatex vicinity east across parts of the lower Mississippi and into the Tennessee Valleys. As the weakening upper system shifts quickly east-northeast across the lower Great Lakes region day 7 (Sunday), expect the trailing surface front to weaken and become oriented increasingly west-to-east across the Gulf Coast region, suggestive of diminished severe potential. In addition, model differences increasing through the end of the period result in reduced confidence with respect to the convective forecast through early next week.

Next Sunday the Euro and the Control for that matter pumps up the ridge in the east and has a slower progressive cold front of almost a day via the GFS.Not sure which is right but by the pattern we are in right now the Euro could be right.But the Euro and Control both show what could be a strong shortwave that effects the Valley next Sunday for some potential severe weather.The GFS tho is showing a shortwave further south Sat with it's progressive look,either way we could be seeing our first severe thunderstorms of the year upcoming.We're getting into Climo time into the Valley

We'll see.The thermocline shows some warm waters around the IDL east and west,though yes cooler anoms further to the east of the IDL.The MJO could be into the IO into March then going into the West Pac so we'll see what happens upcoming

Comparing it to last month

I'm not saying it's dead,but it looks ragged right now.

Nina looks to be on life support right now

IMME shows Nina lasting through May then goes neutral into June through August,plus the latest POAMA

Discussion and comparison of recent conditions with historic El Niño conditions Click to enlarge In the context of yet another aborted El Niño event less than one year ago, this section features a comparison figure with six other short-lived events during the MEI period of record. Only one of them occurred before 1980, while 2017 joins both 2014 and 2012 in a recent clustering of events that lasted five bimonthly seasons or less, with all of them ending before September-October. Compared to last month, the updated (December-January) MEI dropped just a bit further to reach -0.62, confirming its weak La Niña ranking. Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+6/-6) in this season, and excluding the five cases that showed a three-month rise of 0.5 or more, we end up with the following seven 'analogues': 1963, 68, 85, 96, 08, 09, and 12 (only 08 was flagged as an analogue last month, showing unusual volatility). Subsequently, four of these analogues indicated La Niña rankings three months later (March-April), but only one by June-July (1968) and another one by September-October (2008). On the other hand, the two most recent cases (2009 and '12) transitioned to El Niño by Jun-July, with the latter returning to ENSO-neutral later that year, and 1963 took a bit longer to reach weak El Niño status later that year. Thus, continued La Niña conditions are more likely than not for the next few months, but a transition to at least a short-lived El Niño is more likely than continued La Niña later this year, if not more likely than ENSO-neutral condiitons. Negative SST anomalies can be found along the Equator from the dateline to South America, as seen in the latest weekly SST map. The coldest anomalies can be found east of 130W. For an alternate interpretation of the current situation, I recommend reading the NOAA ENSO Advisory which represents the official and most recent Climate Prediction Center opinion on this subject. In its latest update (8 February 2018), weak La Niña conditions are diagnosed, and predicted to transition to ENSO-neutral during March-May with a 55% chance. This is perhaps a bit faster than I would phrase it, but then this is for Niño region 3.4. There are a number of ENSO indices that are kept up-to-date on the web. Several of these are tracked at the NCEP website that is usually updated around the same time as the MEI, in time for this one. Note that I am referring to the OISST.v2 data, not ERSSTv5 (which are currently in sync). After a short-lived run of Niño region 3.4 SST anomalies near +0.5C in May and June 2017, this index dropped to -0.43C in September and -0.45C in October, just shy of the official La Niña threshold of -0.5C, but decreased dramatically in November (-0.86C), continued at -0.77C in December and -0.75C in January. For comparison, Niño region 3 SST nurtured +0.5C anomalies from February through May 2017, dropping to -0.2C in August, between -0.6C and -0.7C in September and October, followed by a similar dramatic drop in November (-1.05C), steadying around -1.1C in December and January. For extended Tahiti-Darwin SOI data back to 1876, and timely monthly updates, check the Australian Bureau of Meteorology website. In 2017, this index oscillated around 0 through May, only to drop to -10 (-1 sigma) in June, corresponding to El Niño conditions for just one month, but rose to +8 in July, back down to +3 in August, +7 in September, +9 in October, +12 in November, the highest value since September 2016, only to yoyo back to -1 in December, and bouncing back to +9 in January. In other words, the SOI is back to wild fluctuations that do not really match any other ENSO index, although the longer- term average is clearly in weak La Niña territory. The next update for the MEI is expected on or before March 10. Compared to last month, the odds for continued La Niña conditions in the MEI sense are about the same, at least through the next three months. Meanwhile, the PDO showed its lowest value since January 2014 in October (+0.05), followed by +0.15 in November and +0.50 in December. After four years of PDO-positive conditions, this index came very close to switching last fall, but seems to be stuck in the positive mode for now. Daily updates of the ENSO status can be found at the TAO/TRITON website, showing weakening La Niña conditions in early February over the equatorial Pacific, along with anomalous westerlies near the dateline. Perhaps the NOAA ENSO Advisory is correct about a quicker demise of La Niña than discussed above. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/#discussion

On this date:Feb 10-11,2009 Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee and Michigan[edit] Tree damage from the EF1 tornado in Tennessee In Missouri, high winds caused widespread damage and knocked out power to 7,629 residences. Several homes and businesses lost their windows due to 65 mph (105 km/h) wind gusts produced within squall lines.[79][108] In Huntsville, Alabama, a car carrying four people lost control on rain-slicked roads and crashed into a van, killing one of the occupants and injuring the other three.[109] Another fatality occurred in Kentucky when a utility worker was knocked over by high winds and fell 30 ft (9.1 m) to his death while trying to restore power.[101] Following the widespread power outages from a severe ice storm, an additional 161,588 residences lost power due to 60 mph (97 km/h) winds.[74]Flooding and high winds in Michigan knocked out power to about 57,000 residences.[78] In southern Michigan, upwards of 0.8 inches (2.0 cm) of rain fell, leading to faster snowmelt.[110] In Tennessee, several structures were damaged and numerous trees were knocked down, closing roads throughout the state as the squall line tracked eastward.[33]A total of 74,052 residences lost power due to the winds.[74] Winds gusting up to 85 mph (137 km/h) caused substantial damage in Rutherford County. Several commercial buildings had major roof damage, leaving $150,000 in damages.[111] Throughout Tennessee, damages from the storm system were estimated at $1.1 million.[90]

IRI ENSO Forecast CPC/IRI ENSO Update Published: Februrary 08, 2018 El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion issued jointly by the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory Synopsis: A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is most likely during the Northern Hemisphere spring (~55% chance of ENSO-neutral during the March-May season). During January 2018, La Niña was evident in the pattern of below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The latest weekly index values were close to -1.0°C in the Niño-1+2, Niño-3, and Niño-3.4 regions, while the western-most Niño-4 region was -0.5°C (Fig. 2). While negative anomalies were maintained near the surface, the sub-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean returned to near average during the last month (Fig. 3). This was due to the eastward propagation of above-average temperatures in association with a downwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave, which undercut the below-average temperatures near the surface (Fig. 4). The atmospheric conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean also reflected La Niña, with suppressed convection near and east of the International Date Line and enhanced convection around Indonesia (Fig. 5). Also, the low-level trade winds remained stronger than average over the western and central Pacific, while upper-level winds were anomalously westerly. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system remained consistent with La Niña. Most models in the IRI/CPC plume predict La Niña will decay and return to ENSO-Neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2018 (Fig. 6). The forecast consensus also favors a transition during the spring with a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions thereafter. In summary, a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is most likely during the Northern Hemisphere spring (~55% chance of ENSO-neutral during the March-May season) (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period). La Niña is anticipated to continue affecting temperature and precipitation across the United States during the next few months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thursday February 15th). The outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the northern tier of the United States This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 March 2018. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected]. Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA/National Weather Service College Park, MD 20740 CPC/IRI Early-Month Official ENSO Forecast Probabilities Season La Niña Neutral El Niño JFM 2018 87% 13% 0% FMA 2018 60% 40% 0% MAM 2018 43% 54% 3% AMJ 2018 32% 61% 7% MJJ 2018 27% 56% 17% JJA 2018 25% 54% 21% JAS 2018 25% 50% 25% ASO 2018 26% 46% 28% SON 2018 27% 40% 33%

Severe does take a drop Nino vs Nina.,Carver is right,last year around this time into March the models were showing a potential moderate to strong Nino and what did we end up with,a Nina..lol

Didn't know where to post this at,ENSO,Severe or winter ?But i'll post it here since it seems to have more severe relevance 3-4 week outlook by CPC don't have much confidence..They seem though to be going with the Euro,but either way http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Now going further into the severe season the Euro Monthly is going into the COD and staying there,but it's support is everywhere. Now since talking severe,take away the CFS forecast in the long range we see enhanced convection into the IO into the 2nd week of March. Then to look into the extended for the ENSO,you see this what Eric Webb said.This would fit the timing of the MJO through into March as mentioned above

https://newsroom.niu.edu/2018/01/29/researchers-find-pathway-to-give-advanced-notice-for-hailstorms/

Posted this on the severe thread but i'll post it here as well,latest NMME

Some warmer waters getting to the surface not by a whole but into the thermocline it's building out west

Today's ENSO update and the updated ONI.Surprised it hit -1.0 for NDJ.So if it's classified a Nina it will be a moderate Nina not weak.

Today marks the anniversary of the Feb 5-6 Outbreak in 2008 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Super_Tuesday_tornado_outbreak

The MJO before the severe outbreak in 2009 showed the MJO getting into the IO(PHASE1) around ten days before.But the evolution of it compared to this MJO is entirely different

SOI Today 2018 29 1008.88 1001.10 14.94 2018 30 1009.65 1003.00 9.62 2018 31 1009.46 1004.90 -0.23 2018 32 1009.08 1006.65 -11.10 2018 33 1007.15 1006.30 -18.68 2018 34 1004.90 1006.25 -29.25